The Best Week 6 NFL Underdog Picks 

The 2024 NFL season keeps trucking along, which means week six will not stop and slow down if you’re trying to hitch a ride to some big winnings. You have to seek out those big paydays, much like I did when I handed out some winning NFL underdog picks last week.

A complete sweep wasn’t in the cards, but if you used my NFL upset picks, you should have done alright. There’s more where that came from, but NFL odds have been really dicey lately, so you’ll need to be selective for Week 6.

The good news? You can make money betting on pro football beyond just predicting upsets. I suggest checking out our week 6 NFL predictions post for some extra insight. That said, I do have some Week 6 NFL underdog picks I am high on, so let’s get to it.

NFL Week 6 Underdog Picks

The best sports betting sites have odds up now, but the following are my favorite upset picks:

Team	Spread	Moneyline
Arizona Cardinals	+5.5 (-110)	+200
Indianapolis Colts	+1 (-115)	-110
Washington Commanders	+6.5 (-110)	+235
New York Giants	+3.5 (-110)	+165

This isn’t the week of the NFL upset, if you ask me. If I were handing out straight up NFL picks for week 6, I’d be backing a ton of favorites. There isn’t a lot of wiggle room to allow you to play both sides of a lot of these games, either.

That said, the four week 6 NFL underdog picks above are what stand out the most to me. There are a few other teams that could keep games close or shock with an upset, but none that I have more confidence in.

As for pricing, there simply aren’t many thick point spreads to work with this week. There are just three games with spreads at +6.5 or bigger, and the one you see in the table above is the only one I’d side with the underdog in.

You can back these week 6 NFL picks now if you’d like, but I’ll offer more reasoning for each bet below. 

If you need even more help, don’t hesitate to hunt down some sports betting handicappers that can point you to some more awesome NFL wagers.

Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (-5.5)

I’m not going as far as saying the Arizona Cardinals will march into Lambeau Field and flat out beat the Arizona Cardinals this week, but I do love their chances to beat the spread.

The Green Bay Packers have not convincingly dominated anyone this year. They beat bad Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans teams, and last week they barely beat the Los Angeles Rams.

The Packers are at home and they’re the better overall team, but their ATS production dating back to last year is troubling. Since then, they’re just 2-2 ATS as home favorites and 14-10 against the spread overall.

Arizona was brutally bad just two weeks ago, but they have flashed their upside numerous times in 2024. I think it’s fair to say they reminded everyone of their potential just last week, when they outlasted the mighty San Francisco 49ers.

Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. form a dangerous duo for Arizona’s passing game, and they can also potentially control this game on the ground with James Conner. I think the Packers find a way to win, but I expect a close game and think AZ beats the spread.

Indianapolis Colts (+1) vs. Tennessee Titans (-1)

It’s unclear if Anthony Richardson will make it back for week six, but I like the Indianapolis Colts this week, regardless. Either the Tennessee Titans will have to find a way to slow AR15 down on the ground, or they’ll have to deal with the ageless wonder that is Joe Flacco.

The Colts nearly completed an improbable comeback last week, displaying they still have the fire and talent to give everyone a solid go. Wide receiver Alec Pierce made several big plays down the field, and he could end up being a key piece to Indy’s puzzle as they go for the mild upset against a hated rival.

Even more interesting is the unknown status of Titans passer, Will Levis. Indy could benefit from this matchup no matter which way you slice it. Either they could square up with the turnover-prone Levis, or they’ll face off with the uninspiring Mason Rudolph.

One way or another, the Colts look like compelling underdogs. Their actual moneyline isn’t plus money, but I like taking them at +1 at most online sportsbooks.

Washington Commanders (+6.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

You’re getting a longer leash if you bet on an underdog like the Washington Commanders, as they have a 6.5 point spread to go to work with. They will be underdogs when they battle the Baltimore Ravens, but this line feels borderline disrespectful.

Baltimore barely got past the 1-4 Cincinnati Bengals last week, and after a draining game like that, it wouldn’t be that shocking for them to fall into a trap game here. I didn’t even mention the surprising Commanders, who are the shock of the league thanks to a wild 4-1 start.

Obviously Jayden Daniels is the talk of the league at the moment, but the real reason to get behind the Commanders might be their defense. Head coach Dan Quinn has clearly rubbed off on this unit, which enters week six on fire, having allowed 27 total points across two consecutive dominant wins.

Demanding this young team to keep it up on the road against a stout Ravens team may be a tall order, but they’ve proven to be a handful. Washington comes in with the league’s second best scoring offense, too, while their defense has been hectic up front (6th in sack percentage).

It should be close and I do think the Ravens pull it out, but Washington’s leash is too long here. I think they easily beat this spread – something they’ve now done two out of three times when declared the underdog in 2024.

New York Giants (+3.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)

One more week 6 NFL underdog pick I like is the New York Giants to hang tight in a tough game with the desperate Cincinnati Bengals. New York should be closer to full strength for this one, as they just upended the Seattle Seahawks despite being without two key offensive starters.

Malik Nabers (concussion) should be on hand for this one, which is bad news for a Bengals defense that got carved up through the air last week. New York admittedly isn’t a team we typically fear offensively, but Nabers offers a unique element down the field, and his presence would create mismatches.

More importantly, the Giants have flat out been better than anyone seems to give them credit for. It’s true that quarterback Daniel Jones is their weak link, but with Nabers on hand, that hole in their game can be masked.

One big reason why? Cincy’s defense has been atrocious. This is a very soft matchup for Big Blue, as they’ll get a Bengals defense that ranks 31st in points allowed per game, 31st in third down conversion percentage, and 31st in sack percentage.

New York’s defense is also a problem. You can scoff at the Giants’ offense if you’d like, but their defense deserves our respect. The G-Men own the league’s 11th best scoring defense (20.8 points allowed per game), they’re top-15 against the run, and they are tops in sack percentage (12.29%).

Most will flock to the Bengals and auto-click them, but after a brutal 1-4 start, Cincy is clearly not the reliable team we’re used to. 

Week 6 NFL Underdog Parlay

• Arizona Cardinals +5.5
• Indianapolis Colts +1
• Washington Commanders +6.5
• New York Giants +3.5

I am just targeting the point spreads for underdogs this week. Thankfully, you can still get a decent chunk of change if all of these picks hit together.

Per usual, I do suggest isolating picks and betting on individual bets if you can help it. That said, this week 6 NFL parlay could get you $1,200 back for every $100 you risk.

That is a pretty nice payout for just four bets strung together, especially when you don’t need any of my week 6 NFL underdog picks to hit on the moneyline.

There are more week 6 NFL parlay picks out there, of course. The above list is just my personal favorite parlay concerning underdogs.

Best NFL Underdog Picks For Week 6

Those are my favorite NFL underdog picks for week 6. This is not the best week to target upside via upsets, as the NFL odds for underdogs aren’t very appealing. Naturally, I really don’t love the idea of fully committing through ML bets.

Parlaying my upset picks does offer some nice upside, but my general suggestion is to take each pick on its own if you can. As for confidence in my picks, I feel good about all four. However, if you’re going to go particularly hard at any, I’d vote for the Cardinals and Commanders.

Those point spreads give you a bit more flexibility, and both teams are in rock solid form at the moment.