Skip to content
Scores&Stats
ES
Ligue 1 · Saturday 10 October

Le Havre AC vs Lille Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 8 Oct 2026

Bet the draw at +390. The bet holds down to +313. Our number has a low-scoring game for Le Havre AC at Lille.

Our number gives Lille a 56.4% chance to win, the draw 28.1% and Le Havre AC 15.5%. DraftKings prices Lille at -225, the draw at +390 and Le Havre at +550. With the book’s 5.0% margin taken out, that is 65.9% for Lille, 19.4% for the draw and 14.6% for Le Havre. The draw is 8.7 points above the market. An outcome is a bet when our chance is 5 points or more above the market’s, and the draw is the only one that clears it. Lille sit 9.5 points under.

Our number gives Lille 56.4 percent, the market 65.9 percentLe Havre AC at Lille: home, draw, away, ours against the market'sOur numberexpected goals56.4%28.1%15.5%The market1X2 prices, margin removed65.9%19.4%14.6%Prices: Lille -225, draw +390, Le Havre AC +550. An outcome is a bet when ours is 5 points or more above the market's.LilleLe Havre AC
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-08 07:40 UTC.

How the number is built

The method in one clause: each side’s expected goals are the league’s average goals at that venue, scaled by the side’s scoring rate at its venue and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other, each relative to that average. A Poisson spread on the two numbers gives the win, the draw and the loss. Lille have played 2 home games this season and Le Havre 2 away, fewer than the 6 the method needs at the venue. So both numbers come from 2025-26, against that season’s Ligue 1 averages of 1.59 home goals and 1.24 away goals a game over 305 games.

Lille scored 1.41 a game at home last season and allowed 1.00, going 8-5-4 in 17. Le Havre scored 0.71 a game away and allowed 1.53, going 2-6-9 in 17. That gives Lille 1.59 x 0.89 x 0.96 = 1.36 expected goals and Le Havre 1.24 x 0.57 x 0.80 = 0.57. Together that is under two goals, and in a game that low the draw takes 28.1%.

Lille at home and Le Havre AC awayLille at home and Le Havre AC away, this season and lastLille at home, 2026-27 French Ligue 11-1-0 in 2scored 2.00 a gameconceded 1.00 a gameLille at home, 2025-26 French Ligue 1 (our number)8-5-4 in 17scored 1.41 a gameconceded 1.00 a gameLe Havre AC away, 2026-27 French Ligue 10-1-1 in 2scored 1.50 a gameconceded 2.00 a gameLe Havre AC away, 2025-26 French Ligue 1 (our number)2-6-9 in 17scored 0.71 a gameconceded 1.53 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The table, this season and last

Lille finished 2025-26 third of 18 with 61 points from 34 games. Le Havre finished fourteenth with 35. Five games into 2026-27, Lille are fourth with 10 points and Le Havre last of 18 with 2, from no wins and two draws.

Lille and Le Havre AC in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastLille2026-27 French Ligue 14 of 18, 10 pts in 52025-26 French Ligue 13 of 18, 61 pts in 34Le Havre AC2026-27 French Ligue 118 of 18, 2 pts in 52025-26 French Ligue 114 of 18, 35 pts in 34Three points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The case against the call is that this season points to more goals. At home Lille have scored 2.00 a game, against 1.41 last season, and Le Havre have allowed 2.00 a game away, against 1.53. Those are two games each and prove little. The market’s total says the same thing more loudly: it prices over 2.5 goals at 58.9%, where our number has 30.4%.

Pick: the draw +390

The draw at +390. It is still a bet at +313, if the book keeps its 5.0% margin: there the market’s chance is 23.1%, 5.0 points under our 28.1%. Shorter than that and it is a pass.

What changes it is the price. A draw price cut toward +313 closes the gap. This page states nothing about either lineup, so check them before kickoff.

The total and the last meetings

The total is 2.5 goals, over -165 and under +130. Our number has the under at 69.6% against the market’s 41.1%, 28.5 points apart, the widest gap on this page. It is reference only: the method bets the result, never the total.

Last meetings of Lille and Le Havre ACLille and Le Havre AC: the last meetings ESPN holds3 May 2026Lille 1-1 Le Havre AC30 Nov 2025Le Havre AC 0-1 Lille8 Feb 2025Lille 1-2 Le Havre AC28 Sep 2024Le Havre AC 0-3 Lille17 Feb 2024Lille 3-0 Le Havre ACHome side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

ESPN holds five meetings since February 2024. Lille won three, Le Havre won 2-1 at Lille on 8 February 2025, and the last, on 3 May 2026 at Lille, finished 1-1. The method does not use them.

Le Havre AC at Lille, French Ligue 1, Saturday 10 October, 11:15 AM ET, Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:40 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.