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Strasbourg vs Nice Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 8 Oct 2026
Ligue 1Sun 11 Oct
Strasbourg
at
Nice
SpreadTotalMoneySTR+0.5U 2.5+190NICE-0.5O 2.5+130

Bet Strasbourg at +190. The bet holds down to -133.

DraftKings has Nice at +130, the draw at +255 and Strasbourg at +190. The book’s margin is 6.1 points across the three. Taken out, the market gives Nice 41.0%, the draw 26.5% and Strasbourg 32.5%.

Our number gives Nice 20.3%, the draw 20.6% and Strasbourg 59.0%. That is 26.5 points above the market on Strasbourg. An outcome is a bet when our chance is 5 points or more above the market’s. Strasbourg is the only one that clears it: the draw sits 5.9 points below the market and Nice 20.7 below.

Our number gives Nice 20.3 percent, the market 41 percentStrasbourg at Nice: home, draw, away, ours against the market'sOur numberexpected goals20.3%20.6%59%The market1X2 prices, margin removed41%26.5%32.5%Prices: Nice +130, draw +255, Strasbourg +190. An outcome is a bet when ours is 5 points or more above the market's.NiceStrasbourg
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-08 07:40 UTC.

How the number is built

The method in one clause: each side’s expected goals, meaning the goals its rates point to, are the league’s average at that venue times the side’s scoring rate there times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both against the league average, and a Poisson model on the two figures gives home, draw and away.

Both sides’ rates come from last season. Nice have played 3 home games in Ligue 1 this season and Strasbourg 3 away, fewer than the 6 the method needs, so each side’s figure is its 2025-26 record at the venue, against the 2025-26 league averages: 1.59 goals a game for the home side and 1.24 for the away side.

Nice at home in 2025-26 went 4-8-5 (wins, draws, losses) over 17 games, scoring 1.12 a game and conceding 1.59. Strasbourg away went 6-5-6 over 17, scoring 1.65 and conceding 1.65.

Against the averages, Nice scored at 0.70 of the league rate at home and Strasbourg conceded at 1.04 times it away. That gives Nice 1.16 expected goals. Strasbourg scored at 1.33 times the rate away and Nice conceded at 1.28 times it at home, which gives Strasbourg 2.11.

Nice at home and Strasbourg awayNice at home and Strasbourg away, this season and lastNice at home, 2026-27 French Ligue 11-2-0 in 3scored 1.00 a gameconceded 0.67 a gameNice at home, 2025-26 French Ligue 1 (our number)4-8-5 in 17scored 1.12 a gameconceded 1.59 a gameStrasbourg away, 2026-27 French Ligue 11-0-2 in 3scored 2.33 a gameconceded 2.67 a gameStrasbourg away, 2025-26 French Ligue 1 (our number)6-5-6 in 17scored 1.65 a gameconceded 1.65 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The table, this season and last

Strasbourg are 8th of 18 after five games, with 7 points from 2-1-2, 10 goals scored and 10 conceded. Nice are 14th with 5 points from 1-2-2, 3 scored and 6 conceded. Last season Strasbourg finished 8th with 53 points and Nice 16th with 32.

Nice and Strasbourg in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastNice2026-27 French Ligue 114 of 18, 5 pts in 52025-26 French Ligue 116 of 18, 32 pts in 34Strasbourg2026-27 French Ligue 18 of 18, 7 pts in 52025-26 French Ligue 18 of 18, 53 pts in 34Three points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The case against the call is this season. Nice are 1-2-0 at home in 2026-27, scoring 1.00 a game and conceding 0.67, against 1.12 and 1.59 last season. Strasbourg are 1-0-2 away, scoring 2.33 and conceding 2.67, against 1.65 and 1.65. Nice’s home conceding and Strasbourg’s away conceding both point away from Strasbourg. They are six games at the venue, 3 for each side, too few for the method and too few to prove anything, so the number rests on the 34 games of last season.

A gap of 26.5 points is more than five times the threshold. It measures how far last season’s venue records sit from this price, and nothing else.

Pick: Strasbourg +190

Strasbourg to win at +190. With the margin at 6.1 points, Strasbourg stays a bet down to -133. Shorter than that, our 59.0% is less than 5 points above the market’s and it is a pass.

What changes it

The price. Strasbourg shorter than -133 ends the bet. Nice would need +516 or longer to become one, and the draw +505 or longer. Those lines assume the book’s margin stays where it is.

The lineups. This page states nothing about who is available for either side on 11 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The line is 2.5 goals, over -150 and under +110. Our number puts the over at 63.4% and the under at 36.6%. The market, margin removed, has the over at 55.8%, so ours is 7.6 points higher. The total is reference only: the method bets the result, never the total.

The last meetings

ESPN lists five meetings since November 2024, in all competitions: two Nice wins, one Strasbourg win and two draws. The last was a 2-0 Nice win at Strasbourg in April 2026. The method does not use them.

Last meetings of Nice and StrasbourgNice and Strasbourg: the last meetings ESPN holds22 Apr 2026Strasbourg 0-2 Nice4 Apr 2026Strasbourg 3-1 Nice3 Jan 2026Nice 1-1 Strasbourg12 Apr 2025Strasbourg 2-2 Nice24 Nov 2024Nice 2-1 StrasbourgHome side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

Strasbourg at Nice, French Ligue 1, Sunday 11 October, 9:00 AM ET, Allianz Riviera. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:40 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.