Bayern Munich vs FC Augsburg Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet Bayern Munich at -550. The bet holds down to -714. Our number has them winning away to FC Augsburg more often than the price says.

DraftKings has FC Augsburg at +850, the draw at +700 and Bayern Munich at -550. With the book’s margin of 7.6% taken out, that is 9.8% for FC Augsburg, 11.6% for the draw and 78.6% for Bayern Munich. Our number gives FC Augsburg 4.7%, the draw 8.5% and Bayern Munich 86.8%. The gap on Bayern Munich is 8.2 points. An outcome is a bet when our chance is 5 points or more above the market’s, and Bayern Munich is the only one that clears it.

How the number is built

The method in one clause: each side’s expected goals are its scoring rate at the venue times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, each against the league average, and a Poisson distribution on the two numbers gives the win, draw and loss chances. Expected goals here means the goals each side should score on those rates, from results only.

Both numbers come from last season. FC Augsburg have played 2 home games this season and Bayern Munich 2 away games, and the method needs 6 at the venue before it uses this season, so each side takes its 2025-26 Bundesliga record at that venue, against that season’s averages of 1.78 goals a game for home sides and 1.46 for away sides.

FC Augsburg at home in 2025-26 went 7-5-5 in 17, scoring 1.47 a game and conceding 1.65. Bayern Munich away went 14-3-0 in 17, scoring 3.18 and conceding 1.0. FC Augsburg’s home scoring is 0.83 times the league’s home average and Bayern Munich’s away conceding 0.56 times it, which gives FC Augsburg 0.83 expected goals. Bayern Munich’s away scoring at 2.18 times the away average, against FC Augsburg conceding at 1.13 times it, gives Bayern Munich 3.59.

The table, this season and last

Bayern Munich won the 2025-26 Bundesliga with 89 points from 34 games. FC Augsburg finished ninth of 18 with 43. After 4 games of 2026-27, Bayern Munich are second with 10 points, 3-1-0 with 14 scored and 2 conceded. FC Augsburg are fourth with 7 points, 2-1-1 with 11 scored and 6 conceded.

The case against the call is FC Augsburg’s start. They are 1-1-0 in their 2 home games this season, with 5 scored and 2 conceded, and Bayern Munich have scored 2 goals in their 2 away games. This season’s league average is also higher: 2.39 goals a game for home sides over the first 36 games, against 1.78 last season. Two games at each venue are too few for the method, which is why it uses last season. If this season’s start is the better guide, the gap on Bayern Munich is too wide.

Pick: Bayern Munich -550

Bayern Munich to win, at -550 at DraftKings. It stays a bet down to -714, if the book keeps its margin. At -737 or shorter the gap is under 5 points and it is no bet.

What changes it

The price. A longer price on Bayern Munich widens the gap; a shorter one past -714 closes it.

The lineups. This page states nothing about who is available for either side. Check the lineups before you bet.

The sample. Once FC Augsburg have 6 home games and Bayern Munich 6 away games this season, the method switches to this season’s records, and the number moves with it.

The total

The total is 4.5, over -115 and under -110, which puts the over at 50.5% with the margin removed. Our expected goals add to 4.42 and give the over 45.1% and the under 54.9%. The total is shown for reference only. This page bets the result, never the total.

The last meetings

ESPN lists five meetings since January 2024. Bayern Munich won four of them, but FC Augsburg won the most recent, 2-1 away at Bayern Munich on 24 January 2026. The method does not use them.

Bayern Munich at FC Augsburg, German Bundesliga, Saturday 10 October, 9:30 AM ET, WWK Arena, Augsburg. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:39 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.