Premier League
Premier League · Monday 2 November
Everton vs Newcastle United Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on Everton at Newcastle United. Our widest gap is 2.9 points on Everton, and a bet needs 5.
DraftKings has Newcastle United at +140, the draw at +255 and Everton at +190, read 31 October at 20:34 UTC. Each price implies a chance, and the three chances add to more than 100%. That extra is the book’s margin, here 4.3%. With it removed, the market reads Newcastle United 39.9%, the draw 27.0% and Everton 33.1%.
Our prediction has Newcastle United at 39.4%, the draw at 24.6% and Everton at 36.0%. Against the market, Everton are 2.9 points higher, the draw 2.4 lower and Newcastle United 0.5 lower. Our rule is fixed: an outcome is a bet only when our chance is at least 5 points above the market’s. Nothing here clears it.
How 36.0% is reached
Each side gets an expected-goals figure. It starts from the league’s average goals at that venue. It is then scaled by the side’s scoring rate at its venue and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both measured against that average. A Poisson model turns the two figures into a home win, a draw and an away win.
Both sides run on their 2025-26 venue records, 19 games each, against that season’s league averages over 380 games: 1.53 goals a game for the home side and 1.22 for the visitor. Each side’s 4 venue games this season are not used.
Newcastle United’s home scoring comes out at 1.24 times the league’s home rate. Everton’s away conceding is 0.79 of it. Together those give Newcastle United 1.5 expected goals. Everton’s away scoring is 0.9 of the visitor’s rate, and Newcastle United conceded at home at 1.29 times it. That gives Everton 1.43. A gap of 0.07 expected goals between the sides is close to a coin flip with a draw in the middle, and the prices already say much the same.
Newcastle United at home, Everton on the road
At St. James’ Park last season Newcastle United went 10-2-7 (wins, draws, losses), scoring 36 and conceding 30. That is 1.89 goals for and 1.58 against a game. The scoring is above the league’s 1.53. The conceding is the weak half of the home record, and it is why Everton’s expected goals sit as high as 1.43.
Everton on the road went 7-5-7 in 19, scoring 21 and conceding 23: 1.11 and 1.21 a game. The method leaves the other halves out. Newcastle United’s away record, 4-5-10 with 17 scored, plays no part in this game’s number. Neither does Everton’s 6-5-8 at home.
This season so far
None of this is in our number. Newcastle United are 1-2-1 at home in 2026-27, with 6 scored and 6 conceded: 1.5 a game each way, against 1.89 and 1.58 last season. Everton are 0-3-1 away, with 3 scored and 5 conceded: 0.75 and 1.25 a game, against 1.11 and 1.21.
Taken alone, both early records point to fewer goals at this venue than last season’s rates suggest. Four games a side is not a sample. The number stays on 2025-26 until the method changes season, and these splits do not say which way the result prices would move.
The table, this season and last
Eight games into the season, Newcastle United are 11th of 20 with 11 points from 3-2-3, 12 scored and 14 conceded. Everton are 14th with 10 points from 2-4-2, 8 scored and 9 conceded. Last season the two finished a place apart on 49 points each: Newcastle United 12th at 14-7-17 with a 53-55 goal record, and Everton 13th at 13-10-15 with 47-50.
ESPN holds five games between the two since May 2025, and Everton won four. At Newcastle, Everton won 1-0 on 25 May 2025, 3-2 on 28 February 2026 and 3-1 on 12 August 2026. At Everton, Newcastle United won 4-1 on 29 November 2025, and Everton won 3-1 on 29 October 2026, four days before this game. The method uses no head-to-head record. It reads each side’s venue rates only, so a 4-1 run for Everton moves nothing.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the result. Everton’s gap is 2.9 points against a threshold of 5. The draw and Newcastle United are both below the market.
The price is Everton +190, Newcastle United +140 and the draw +255 at DraftKings, read 31 October 2026 at 20:34 UTC. At these prices the market is right on our numbers.
What kills the bet
The price is the only thing that turns this into a bet. Everton become a bet at +210 or longer, against +190 now. Newcastle United need +179 or longer, against +140. The draw needs +391 or longer, against +255. Each of those assumes the 4.3% margin holds.
Nothing on this page states who is available for Monday 2 November. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total
The total is 2.5 goals, over -140 and under +115. Without the margin, the market has the over at 55.6% and the under at 44.4%. Our number has the over at 56.1% and the under at 43.9%, a gap of 0.5 points. Our method stakes the result only, so this is for reference.
Five of Newcastle United’s 8 league games this season went over 2.5, and 2 of Everton’s 8. Last season it was 24 of 38 for Newcastle United and 17 of 38 for Everton.
Everton at Newcastle United, English Premier League, Monday 2 November, 3:00 PM ET, St. James’ Park, Newcastle-upon-Tyne. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 31 October 2026, 20:34 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, 2026-27 and 2025-26 English Premier League. Nothing here states who is available.