Fulham vs Aston Villa Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Take Aston Villa to beat Fulham. Our number has Villa at 60.0% to win, the market 48.8%, and an 11.2-point gap clears the 5 a bet needs.

DraftKings has Aston Villa at -105, the draw at +275 and Fulham at +270, read 30 October 2026 at 01:29 UTC. A book adds a margin, the extra built into its prices so the three chances add to more than 100%. Here it is 4.9%. With that taken out, the market reads Aston Villa 48.8%, the draw 25.4% and Fulham 25.8%.

We have Aston Villa at 60.0%, the draw at 22.8% and Fulham at 17.3%. Villa sit 11.2 points above the market. The draw is 2.6 below and Fulham 8.5 below. Only one outcome clears the threshold, and that outcome is the bet.

How 60.0% is reached

Each side’s expected goals start from the league’s average goals at that venue. That average is scaled by the side’s scoring rate at its venue and by the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, each measured against the league. A Poisson model on the two expected-goal figures then gives the home win, the draw and the away win.

The figures come from 2025-26: 19 home games for Aston Villa and 19 away games for Fulham, against that season’s league averages over 380 games. Those averages are 1.53 goals a game for the home side and 1.22 for the visitor. Each club has 4 such games this season, and those 4 are not in the number.

Villa scored at home at 1.1 times the league’s home rate. Fulham conceded on the road at 1.07 times it. Together that gives Aston Villa 1.8 expected goals. Fulham scored away at 0.73 of the visitor’s rate and Villa conceded at home at 0.95 of it, which leaves Fulham 0.85. A gap of 1.8 to 0.85 is a 60% favourite. The market prices this game closer to a coin flip.

Aston Villa at home, Fulham on the road

These are the two halves the method uses. At Villa Park in 2025-26, Aston Villa went 12-2-5 (wins, draws, losses) in 19 games, scoring 1.68 a game and conceding 1.16. Fulham on the road went 4-5-10 in 19, scoring 0.89 a game and conceding 1.63.

The other two halves are left out. Villa’s away record last season was 7-6-6, with 1.26 scored and 1.42 conceded a game. Fulham at home were 11-2-6, scoring 1.58 and conceding 1.05. On those halves Fulham were a far stronger side. The method does not use them for this game, because this game is at Villa Park.

This season so far

None of this season’s games is inside our number. Aston Villa are 1-1-2 at home in 2026-27, with 5 scored and 6 conceded, or 1.25 and 1.5 a game against 1.68 and 1.16 last season. Fulham are 1-1-2 away, with 2 scored and 3 conceded, or 0.5 and 0.75 a game against 0.89 and 1.63.

In our view, most of that start points away from Villa: their home scoring is down, their home conceding is up and Fulham have conceded less on the road. Four games a side is the sample. It describes a month, and it does not tell us which way the number would move.

The table, this season and last

Last season Aston Villa finished 4th of 20 with 65 points from 19-8-11, scoring 56 and conceding 49. Fulham were 11th with 52 points from 15-7-16, scoring 47 and conceding 51.

Eight games into 2026-27 both sides sit lower. Aston Villa are 9th with 11 points from 3-2-3, 9 scored and 12 conceded. Fulham are 15th with 8 points from 2-2-4, 8 scored and 10 conceded.

The last meetings

ESPN holds five league games between the two since February 2024. Villa won the first four: 2-1 on 17 February 2024 and 3-1 on 19 October 2024, both with Fulham at home, then 1-0 on 3 May 2025 and 3-1 on 28 September 2025 at Villa Park. Fulham won the most recent, 1-0 at home on 25 April 2026.

The 28 September 2025 game is part of the 2025-26 home record for Villa and the away record for Fulham, so it is one of the 19 games on each side of our number. The April 2026 game was a Fulham home game and is not used. The three earlier games come from seasons the number does not use.

Pick: Aston Villa -105

Aston Villa to win, at -105 on DraftKings, read 30 October 2026 at 01:29 UTC. Our chance is 60.0% against the market’s 48.8%, an 11.2-point gap against a 5-point threshold. We have no opening price for this market, so the page gives only the current one.

What kills the bet

The price. Aston Villa stay a bet at -135 or longer. Shorter than -135, the gap falls under 5 points and the call becomes no bet. The other two outcomes need a long way to go: the draw becomes the bet at +437 or longer, and Fulham at +675 or longer, against +275 and +270 now. Each threshold assumes the 4.9% margin holds.

The team sheets. This page holds no injury list for either club, so nothing here says who is available on 31 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

The sample. The number runs on 2025-26 venue records. As this season’s games come into the method, the number will move with them, and Villa’s 1-1-2 home start is the part to watch.

The total

The total is 2.5 goals, over -150 and under +120. With the margin taken out, the market has the over at 56.9% and the under at 43.1%. Our number has the over at 49.3% and the under at 50.7%. That is 7.6 points below the market on the over. The method never bets the goals, so this is for reference only.

Five of Aston Villa’s 8 league games this season went over 2.5, and 3 of Fulham’s 8. Last season it was 20 of 38 for Villa and 19 of 38 for Fulham.

Fulham at Aston Villa, English Premier League, Saturday 31 October, 4:00 PM ET, Villa Park, Birmingham. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 30 October 2026, 01:29 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, 2026-27 and 2025-26 English Premier League. Nothing here states who is available.