Nottingham Forest vs Brentford Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on Nottingham Forest at Brentford. Forest are the closest side to a bet on our number, 2.8 points above the market, and a bet needs 5.

DraftKings lists Brentford at +105, the draw at +270 and Nottingham Forest at +245, read on 29 October at 19:18 UTC. The book builds in a margin of 4.8%, the extra that makes the three prices add to more than 100%. Take it out and the market reads Brentford 46.5%, the draw 25.8% and Forest 27.7%.

We have Brentford at 45.6%, the draw at 23.9% and Forest at 30.5%. Forest are 2.8 points above the market, Brentford 0.9 below and the draw 1.9 below. Our rule is fixed before the pick: an outcome is a bet only when our chance is at least 5 points above the market’s. Nothing here reaches it, so this prediction is a pass.

How 30.5% is reached

The method starts each side’s expected goals from the league’s average goals at that venue. It then scales that figure by the side’s scoring rate at the venue and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both measured against the league average. A Poisson model, which spreads the two expected-goal figures into the chance of each scoreline, turns them into the home win, the draw and the away win.

Both clubs run on 2025-26: Brentford’s 19 home games and Forest’s 19 away games. This season’s 4 home games for Brentford and 4 away for Forest are not in the number. The league averages come from the same season, 380 games: 1.53 goals a game for the home side and 1.22 for the visitor.

Brentford scored at home at 1.14 times the league’s home rate. Forest conceded on the road at 0.97 of it. That gives Brentford 1.68 expected goals.

Forest’s away scoring was 1.2 times the visitor’s rate, and Brentford conceded at home at 0.9 of it, which leaves Forest 1.33. Two figures that close produce a game priced near a coin flip with a heavy draw, and that is what +105, +270 and +245 already say.

Brentford at home, Forest on the road

At the Gtech Community Stadium last season Brentford went 8-8-3 (wins, draws, losses) in 19, scoring 1.74 a game and conceding 1.11. Forest on the road went 7-3-9 in 19, scoring 1.47 and conceding 1.47. Those are the two halves inside our number.

This season’s venue records sit outside it. Brentford are 2-1-1 at home, 8 scored and 3 conceded, which is 2.00 and 0.75 a game. Forest are 1-2-1 away, 6 scored and 7 conceded, 1.50 and 1.75 a game. Four games a side is too few for those rates to say anything about this game.

The halves the method leaves out point in odd directions. Brentford are 0-4-0 away this season, 6 scored and 6 conceded. Forest have not scored at home in 4 games, 0-1-3 with 3 conceded. Neither half touches a game played at Brentford.

The season around it

Eight games into 2026-27, Brentford are 6th of 20 with 11 points from 2-5-1, 14 scored and 9 conceded. Forest are 18th with 6 points from 1-3-4, 6 scored and 10 conceded. Last season Brentford finished 9th with 53 points, 14-11-13 and 55-52 on goals. Forest were 16th with 44, 11-11-16 and 48-51.

ESPN holds five meetings since January 2024. At Brentford, the home side won 3-2 on 20 January 2024, Forest won 2-0 on 21 December 2024, and Forest won 2-0 again on 25 January 2026. At Forest, Brentford won 2-0 on 1 May 2025 and Forest won 3-1 on 17 August 2025.

The January 2026 game is inside our number: it is one of Brentford’s 19 home games and one of Forest’s 19 away games from 2025-26. The other four meetings are not. Five games between two clubs is a sample that proves nothing.

Pick: no bet

No bet on the result. The widest gap is Forest’s 2.8 points, against a threshold of 5.

The market and our number agree on the shape of this game: Brentford a slight favourite at home, Forest a live outsider, the draw near a quarter. DraftKings has priced it within 3 points of us on all three outcomes. This page carries one read of the price, at 19:18 UTC on 29 October, so there is no opening line to set beside it.

What changes the call

The price. Forest become a bet at +275 or longer, against +245 now. Brentford need +136 or longer, against +105, and the draw +405 or longer, against +270. Of the three, Forest’s is the shortest move.

The team sheets. This page says nothing about who is available on 31 October; check the lineups before you bet.

The sample. Both clubs run on last season’s venue records, and this season’s 4 home games for Brentford and 4 away for Forest will move the number as they enter it.

The total

The total is 2.5 goals: over -135, under +110. Without the margin the market has the over at 54.7% and the under at 45.3%. Our number has the over at 57.9% and the under at 42.1%, a gap of 3.2 points on the over. The method never bets the goals, so this is for reference.

Five of Brentford’s 8 league games this season went over 2.5, and 3 of Forest’s 8. Last season it was 20 of 38 for each club.

Nottingham Forest at Brentford, English Premier League, Saturday 31 October, 11:00 AM ET, Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 29 October 2026, 19:18 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, 2026-27 and 2025-26 English Premier League. Nothing here states who is available.