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Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 16 Oct 2026
Premier LeagueSun 18 Oct
Arsenal
at
Nottingham Forest
SpreadTotalMoneyARS-0.5U 2.5-160NFO+0.5O 2.5+475

No bet on Arsenal at Nottingham Forest. Our number and the market agree closely on all three outcomes, and the widest gap, 2.6 points on Arsenal, is short of the 5 a bet needs.

DraftKings has Nottingham Forest at +475, the draw at +285 and Arsenal at -160. Take out the book’s 4.9% margin and that reads 16.6% for Forest, 24.8% for the draw and 58.7% for Arsenal.

Our number: Forest 13.6%, the draw 25.0%, Arsenal 61.3%. Arsenal are 2.6 points above the market, the draw 0.2 above it and Forest 3.0 below. A side or the draw becomes a bet at 5 points above, so this is a pass.

Our number gives Nottingham Forest 13.6 percent, the market 16.6 percentArsenal at Nottingham Forest: home, draw, away, ours against the market'sOur numberexpected goals13.6%25%61.3%The market1X2 prices, margin removed16.6%24.8%58.7%Prices: Nottingham Forest +475, draw +285, Arsenal -160. An outcome is a bet when ours is 5 points or more above the market's.Nottingham ForestArsenal
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 16 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-16 14:35 UTC.

How the number is built

Each side gets expected goals from three parts: the league’s average goals at that venue, the side’s own scoring rate there and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both rates measured against the average. A Poisson spread on the two expected-goals figures gives home, draw and away.

Forest have played 3 Premier League home games this season and Arsenal 3 away. The method takes this season’s venue record from 6 games, so both sides run on 2025-26, against that season’s averages: 1.53 goals a game for the home side and 1.22 for the away side.

Forest at the City Ground last season went 4-8-7 (wins, draws, losses) over 19, scoring 1.05 a game and conceding 1.21. Arsenal on the road went 11-5-3 over 19, scoring 1.58 and conceding 0.84.

Set against the averages, Forest scored at home at 0.69 of the league rate and Arsenal conceded away at 0.55 of it, which comes to 0.58 expected goals for Forest. Arsenal scored away at 1.29 of the rate, and Forest let in goals at home at 0.99 of it. That is 1.56 for Arsenal, and it leaves our number a little above the market on Arsenal, not far enough to bet.

Nottingham Forest at home and Arsenal awayNottingham Forest at home and Arsenal away, this season and lastNottingham Forest at home, 2026-27 English Premier League0-1-2 in 3scored 0.00 a gameconceded 0.67 a gameNottingham Forest at home, 2025-26 English Premier League (our number)4-8-7 in 19scored 1.05 a gameconceded 1.21 a gameArsenal away, 2026-27 English Premier League2-0-1 in 3scored 1.00 a gameconceded 1.00 a gameArsenal away, 2025-26 English Premier League (our number)11-5-3 in 19scored 1.58 a gameconceded 0.84 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season, when that record holds six or more.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 16 October 2026.

The table, this season and last

Six games in, Arsenal are 2nd with 15 points, 5-0-1, 10 scored and 5 conceded. Forest are 15th with 5, 1-2-3, 5 scored and 8 conceded. Last season Arsenal finished 1st with 85 points and Forest finished 16th with 44.

Nottingham Forest and Arsenal in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastNottingham Forest2026-27 English Premier League15 of 20, 5 pts in 62025-26 English Premier League16 of 20, 44 pts in 38Arsenal2026-27 English Premier League2 of 20, 15 pts in 62025-26 English Premier League1 of 20, 85 pts in 38Three points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 16 October 2026.

This season Forest have not scored at home: 0-1-2, with 2 conceded. Arsenal are 2-0-1 away, 3 scored and 3 conceded. Three games at a venue are below the method’s floor of 6, so neither record feeds the number.

Pick: no bet

No bet on the result. Arsenal are 2.6 points above the market, the draw 0.2 and Forest 3.0 below; none reaches 5.

What changes it

The price. Arsenal become a bet at -142 or longer, against -160 now. The draw would need +377 or longer, and Forest +1009 or longer.

The team sheets. This page does not cover who is available on 18 October; read the team news before betting on anything.

The total

The total is 2.5 goals, over -110 and under -115. With the margin removed the market has the over at 49.5% and the under at 50.5%. We have the over at 36.2% and the under at 63.8%. The method never bets the goals, so this is for reference only.

This season 3 of Forest’s 6 league games went over 2.5, and 4 of Arsenal’s 6. Last season both sides had 20 of 38 go over.

The last meetings

ESPN lists five meetings since January 2024, and Forest have not beaten Arsenal in any of them. Arsenal won 2-1 with Forest listed at home in January 2024, and 3-0 as the listed home side in November 2024 and again in September 2025. The other two, with Forest listed at home in February 2025 and January 2026, both ended 0-0. None of them feeds the number.

Last meetings of Nottingham Forest and ArsenalNottingham Forest and Arsenal: the last meetings ESPN holds17 Jan 2026Nottingham Forest 0-0 Arsenal13 Sep 2025Arsenal 3-0 Nottingham Forest26 Feb 2025Nottingham Forest 0-0 Arsenal23 Nov 2024Arsenal 3-0 Nottingham Forest30 Jan 2024Nottingham Forest 1-2 ArsenalHome side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 16 October 2026.

Arsenal at Nottingham Forest, English Premier League, Sunday 18 October, 11:30 AM ET, The City Ground, Nottingham. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 16 October 2026, 14:35 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 16 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.