Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Take the draw at Selhurst Park. It is the only outcome in this game where our chance sits more than 5 points above the market’s.

DraftKings has Crystal Palace at +190, the draw at +265 and Newcastle United at +135, read on 24 October at 02:21 UTC. Those prices carry a 4.4% margin, the extra a book builds in so the three chances add to more than 100%. Take it out and the market reads Newcastle 40.7%, Palace 33.0% and the draw 26.2%.

Our number has Newcastle at 33.9%, the draw at 33.5% and Palace at 32.6%. The draw is 7.3 points above the market. That gap is the whole argument for this prediction.

How 33.5% is reached

Each side’s expected goals start from the league’s average goals at its venue. That figure is scaled by the side’s scoring rate at that venue and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other, both measured against the league average. A Poisson model on the two figures then gives the home win, the draw and the away win.

The averages come from the 2025-26 Premier League, 380 games: 1.53 goals a game for the home side and 1.22 for the visitor. Palace scored at home at 0.66 of the home rate, and Newcastle conceded on the road at 0.86 of it, which gives Palace 0.86 expected goals. Newcastle scored away at 0.73 of the visitor’s rate, against a Palace home defence at 0.99, which gives Newcastle 0.89.

Two sides both under a goal, and 0.03 apart, is the shape where a draw is close to the most likely result. The model puts it at 33.5%, a tenth of a point behind Newcastle.

The method uses this season’s venue records once a side has 4 games at that venue. Palace have played 3 league games at home this season and Newcastle 3 away, so both run on 2025-26 for now: 19 games a side.

This season so far

Outside our number, both sides have started 2026-27 leaking goals at these venues. Palace are 1-0-2 (wins, draws, losses) at home, scoring 6 and conceding 8: 2.00 and 2.67 a game, against 1.00 and 1.21 last season. Newcastle are 1-0-2 away, scoring 4 and conceding 8: 1.33 and 2.67 a game, against 0.89 and 1.32.

Three games a side is a sample that proves nothing. In our view, if those starts counted, both expected-goal figures would rise, and a higher-scoring game is a less likely draw. That is the main risk to this call.

Crystal Palace at home, Newcastle United on the road

At home in 2025-26, Palace went 4-9-6 in 19 league games, scoring 19 and conceding 23. Nine draws from 19 is the record the model is reading. Newcastle on the road went 4-5-10 in 19, scoring 17 and conceding 25, which is 0.89 and 1.32 a game.

The method leaves out the other halves. Palace away last season went 7-3-9, with 22 scored and 28 conceded, 1.16 and 1.47 a game. Newcastle at home went 10-2-7, with 36 scored and 30 conceded, 1.89 and 1.58 a game. Neither half describes this game, so neither moves the number.

The season around it

Seven games into 2026-27 the clubs are a point apart. Newcastle are 11th of 20 with 8 points from 2-2-3, 10 scored and 14 conceded. Palace are 14th with 7 points from 2-1-4, 9 scored and 17 conceded. Each has gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of 7 league games.

Last season Newcastle finished 12th with 49 points, 14-7-17, and a goal difference of 53 for and 55 against. Palace were 15th with 45 points from 11-12-15, 41 for and 51 against.

The last five games between the clubs in ESPN’s record split 2-2 with one draw. With Palace at home: 2-0 to Palace in April 2024, 1-1 in November 2024 and 2-1 to Palace on 12 April 2026. With Newcastle at home: 5-0 in April 2025 and 2-0 on 4 January 2026. None of the five feeds our number.

Pick: Draw +265

The rule: an outcome is a bet when our chance is at least 5 points above the market’s. The draw clears it by 2.3, at 7.3 points. The price is +265 at DraftKings, read 24 October 2026 at 02:21 UTC.

The other two outcomes are no bet. Palace are 0.4 points below the market, and Newcastle 6.8 below it. In our view the market’s lean towards Newcastle at +135 is where the draw’s value comes from.

What kills the bet

The price. The draw stays a bet at +236 or longer, so anything shorter than +236 ends it. Palace would become the bet at +248 or longer, against +190 now. Newcastle would need +232 or longer, against +135.

The sample. At 4 games for Palace at home and 4 for Newcastle away, the method moves to this season’s records, and on these starts the number would move. This page says nothing about who is available on 25 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The total is 3.5 goals, over +135 and under -170. Without the margin the market has the over at 40.3% and the under at 59.7%. Our number has the over at 10.0% and the under at 90.0%, and over 2.5 at 25.5%. The method never bets the goals, so this is for reference only.

The gap is 30.3 points, and the recent records pull against our figure. Palace have gone over 3.5 in 5 of 7 league games this season and Newcastle in 4 of 7. Last season it was 8 of 38 for Palace and 13 of 38 for Newcastle.

Newcastle United at Crystal Palace, English Premier League, Sunday 25 October, 10:00 AM ET, Selhurst Park, London. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 02:21 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN (2026-27 and 2025-26 English Premier League). Nothing here states who is available.