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Brentford vs Hull City Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 23 Oct 2026
Premier LeagueSun 25 Oct
Brentford
at
Hull City
SpreadTotalMoneyBRE-0.5U 2.5-145HUL+0.5O 2.5+370

No bet on Brentford at Hull City. Hull have played 3 home games in this league, and the method needs 6 before it will put a number on this result.

DraftKings has Brentford at -145, the draw at +310 and Hull City at +370, read 23 October at 21:28 UTC. The book’s margin is 4.9%: the extra it builds in so the three prices add to more than 100%. With the margin out, the market reads Brentford 56.4%, the draw 23.3% and Hull City 20.3%.

A bet needs our chance to sit at least 5 points above one of those three figures. This week there is no figure of ours to compare, so nothing can clear the bar.

Why there is no number

Each side’s expected goals start from the league’s average goals at that venue. That figure is then scaled by the side’s scoring rate at its venue and by the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both measured against the league average. A Poisson model on the two expected-goal figures gives the home win, the draw and the away win.

The method uses this season’s venue record once a side has 6 games at that venue. Below that, it falls back on the previous season’s record in the same league. Hull City have 3 home games in the 2026-27 Premier League. The data holds no 2025-26 Premier League record for them, so the home half of the model is empty and the method stops.

Brentford are not the problem. They have a full 2025-26 record of 19 away games to stand in for their 3 away games this season. One complete half is not enough. A model built on half its inputs would be a guess with decimals.

This season so far, outside the method

Three games is what Hull have at home, and three games proves nothing. Hull City are 1-2-0 (wins, draws, losses) at the MKM Stadium, with 4 scored and 2 conceded: 1.33 goals a game for and 0.67 against. The league’s home sides are averaging 1.61 scored over 70 games this season.

Brentford on the road are 0-3-0 in 3, scoring 5 and conceding 5, which is 1.67 a game each way. The league’s visitors average 1.29. Three draws from three away games is a sample, not a pattern.

Hull City at home, Brentford on the road

The away half of the model would run on Brentford’s 2025-26 road record: 6-3-10 in 19, scoring 1.16 a game and conceding 1.63. That season’s visitors averaged 1.22 goals over 380 games, so Brentford scored a little under the visitor’s rate and conceded well above the home side’s 1.53. Their early 2026-27 road numbers point the other way on scoring, at 1.67 a game, but from 3 games.

Hull at home and Brentford awayHull at home and Brentford away, this season and lastHull at home, 2026-27 English Premier League1-2-0 in 3scored 1.33 a gameconceded 0.67 a gameBrentford away, 2026-27 English Premier League0-3-0 in 3scored 1.67 a gameconceded 1.67 a gameBrentford away, 2025-26 English Premier League6-3-10 in 19scored 1.16 a gameconceded 1.63 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season, when that record holds six or more.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 23 October 2026.

The halves the method leaves out tell a similar story. Hull City away are 1-1-2 in 4, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.25. Brentford at home are 2-1-1 in 4, scoring 2.00 and conceding 0.75. Last season Brentford went 8-8-3 at home, with 1.74 scored and 1.11 conceded a game.

The table and the meetings

Seven games in, Brentford sit above Hull City. Brentford are 6th of 20 with 10 points from 2-4-1, 13 scored and 8 conceded. Hull City are 9th with 9 points from 2-3-2, 8 scored and 7 conceded. Last season Brentford finished 9th with 53 points, 14-11-13, scoring 55 and conceding 52.

Hull and Brentford in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastHull2026-27 English Premier League9 of 20, 9 pts in 72025-26 English Premier Leaguenot in this leagueBrentford2026-27 English Premier League6 of 20, 10 pts in 72025-26 English Premier League9 of 20, 53 pts in 38Three points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 23 October 2026.

The five meetings in the data run from May 2018 to February 2020. On the last visit to Hull, on 1 February 2020, Brentford won 5-1. Hull won 2-0 at home on 15 December 2018. At Brentford’s ground the results were 1-1 on 6 May 2018, 5-1 to Brentford on 23 February 2019 and 1-1 on 17 August 2019. None of the five would feed the number even if the number existed.

Last meetings of Hull and BrentfordHull and Brentford: the last meetings ESPN holds1 Feb 2020Hull 1-5 Brentford17 Aug 2019Brentford 1-1 Hull23 Feb 2019Brentford 5-1 Hull15 Dec 2018Hull 2-0 Brentford6 May 2018Brentford 1-1 HullHome side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 23 October 2026.

Pick: no bet

No bet on the result. The method needs 6 home games from Hull City, or a previous-season home record of 6 or more in this league, and has neither. With no figure of ours, there is no gap to measure against the 5-point threshold.

The price is DraftKings, read 23 October 2026 at 21:28 UTC: Brentford -145, draw +310, Hull City +370. No opening price is in hand, so this page says nothing about how the market has moved.

What kills the bet

This week, no price makes any outcome a bet. The rule is a sample rule, and it holds whether Brentford drift out or Hull shorten. A side can only become a bet once the method has a number, and that waits on Hull’s home record reaching 6 games.

This page says nothing about who is available for Brentford or Hull City on 25 October. Check the lineups before you bet anything.

The total

No total was read for this game, so there is no verdict on the goals. The method stakes the result only.

For reference, 3 of Hull City’s 7 league games this season went over 2.5 goals. Brentford’s figure is 5 of 7, and last season it was 20 of 38.

Brentford at Hull City, English Premier League, Sunday 25 October, 10:00 AM ET, The MKM Stadium, Hull. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 23 October 2026, 21:28 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, 2026-27 and 2025-26 English Premier League. Nothing here states who is available.