Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet Nottingham Forest at +165. The bet holds down to +117. Our number makes them the favorite away to Crystal Palace.

DraftKings has Crystal Palace at +160, the draw at +235 and Nottingham Forest at +165. With the book’s margin of 6.0% taken out, that is 36.3% for Crystal Palace, 28.1% for the draw and 35.6% for Nottingham Forest. Our number gives Crystal Palace 25.0%, the draw 26.5% and Nottingham Forest 48.5%. The gap on Nottingham Forest is 12.9 points. An outcome is a bet when our chance is 5 points or more above the market’s, and Nottingham Forest is the only one that clears it.

How the number is built

The method in one clause: each side’s expected goals are its scoring rate at the venue times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, each against the league average, and a Poisson distribution on the two numbers gives the win, draw and loss chances. Expected goals here means the goals each side should score on those rates, from results only.

Both numbers come from last season. Crystal Palace have played 2 home games this season and Nottingham Forest 2 away games, and the method needs 6 at the venue before it uses this season, so each side takes its 2025-26 Premier League record at that venue, against that season’s averages of 1.53 goals a game for home sides and 1.22 for away sides.

Crystal Palace at home in 2025-26 went 4-9-6 in 19, scoring 1.0 a game and conceding 1.21. Nottingham Forest away went 7-3-9 in 19, scoring 1.47 and conceding 1.47. Crystal Palace’s home scoring is 0.66 times the league’s home average and Nottingham Forest’s away conceding 0.97 times it, which gives Crystal Palace 0.97 expected goals. Nottingham Forest’s away scoring at 1.2 times the away average, against Crystal Palace conceding at 0.99 times it, gives Nottingham Forest 1.46.

The table, this season and last

The two finished 2025-26 a point apart: Crystal Palace 15th of 20 with 45 points from 38 games, Nottingham Forest 16th with 44. After 5 games of 2026-27, Nottingham Forest are 13th with 5 points, 1-2-2 with 4 scored and 5 conceded. Crystal Palace are 15th with 4 points, 1-1-3 with 6 scored and 11 conceded.

This season’s start does not argue against the call: Crystal Palace are 0-0-2 at home with 3 scored and 7 conceded, and Nottingham Forest 1-1-0 away with 4 scored and 3 conceded. The case against is how much of the number rests on venue splits. Nottingham Forest scored 1.47 a game away last season and 1.05 at home, and Crystal Palace 1.0 at home and 1.16 away. If those splits do not hold, the gap on Nottingham Forest shrinks.

Pick: Nottingham Forest +165

Nottingham Forest to win, at +165 at DraftKings. It stays a bet down to +117, if the book keeps its margin. At +116 or shorter the gap is under 5 points and it is no bet.

What changes it

The price. A longer price on Nottingham Forest widens the gap; a shorter one past +117 closes it.

The lineups. This page states nothing about who is available for either side. Check the lineups before you bet.

The sample. Once Crystal Palace have 6 home games and Nottingham Forest 6 away games this season, the method switches to this season’s records, and the number moves with it.

The total

The total is 2.5, over -110 and under -120, which puts the over at 49.0% with the margin removed. Our expected goals add to 2.43 and give the over 43.6% and the under 56.4%. The total is shown for reference only. This page bets the result, never the total.

The last meetings

ESPN lists five meetings since March 2024. Four ended 1-1, including both at Crystal Palace, and the other was a 1-0 Nottingham Forest win at home on 21 October 2024. The method does not use them.

Nottingham Forest at Crystal Palace, English Premier League, Sunday 11 October, 9:00 AM ET, Selhurst Park, London. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:40 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.