Everton vs Arsenal Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on Arsenal -220. Our 66.5% and the market’s 65.6% are 0.9 points apart, and a bet needs 5.

DraftKings lists Arsenal at -220, the draw at +340 and Everton at +650. Remove the book’s 4.8% margin (the extra it builds in so the three prices add to more than 100%) and the market reads Arsenal 65.6%, the draw 21.7% and Everton 12.7%. We have Arsenal at 66.5%, the draw at 22.7% and Everton at 10.8%. The largest gap in our favour is the draw at 1.0 points. The largest in either direction is Everton, where we sit 1.9 points under the market. The rule is a 5-point edge, set before the price is read, and none of the three comes close.

How the number is built

Each side’s expected goals are the league’s average goals at that venue, times the side’s scoring rate at its venue and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both measured against that average. A Poisson model on the two figures gives the home win, the draw and the away win.

Arsenal have 3 home games in the league this season and Everton 3 away. The method moves to this season’s venue record at 4 games, so both sides still run on 2025-26: 19 games each, against that season’s league averages over 380 games, 1.53 goals for the home side and 1.22 for the visitor.

Arsenal at home last season went 15-2-2 (wins, draws, losses), scoring 41 and conceding 11, which is 2.16 and 0.58 a game. That is 1.41 times the league’s home scoring rate, and a conceding rate of 0.47 of the league’s away rate. Everton on the road went 7-5-7, scoring 21 and conceding 23, or 1.11 and 1.21 a game. Their scoring was 0.9 of the visitor’s rate and their conceding 0.79 of the home rate.

Put together, that is 1.71 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.52 for Everton. A gap that wide is what a -220 favourite looks like, and the market has already priced it.

Arsenal at home, Everton away

This season’s venue records are 3 games a side, one short of the method’s 4, so they sit outside the number. They are close to last season’s anyway.

Arsenal are 3-0-0 at the Emirates, 7 scored and 2 conceded, or 2.33 and 0.67 a game, against 2.16 and 0.58 last season. Everton are 0-3-0 away, 3 scored and 3 conceded, or 1.00 each, against 1.11 and 1.21 last season. Three games proves nothing about either side. The sample is too small to move the call in either direction.

The season around it

Arsenal finished 1st last season with 85 points, 26-7-5 and a 71-27 goal count. Everton were 13th with 49, 13-10-15 and 47-50. After 7 games of 2026-27 Arsenal are 2nd with 18 points from 6-0-1, 11 scored and 5 conceded. Everton are 8th with 10 from 2-4-1, 8 scored and 7 conceded.

Everton’s four draws in seven are the number a Poisson model cannot see directly, and the draw is where we sit highest against the market, at 22.7% to 21.7%. One point is not an edge.

The last five meetings: Arsenal won 2-0 at home on 14 March 2026, won 1-0 at Everton on 20 December 2025, and drew 1-1 at Everton on 5 April 2025. They drew 0-0 at home on 14 December 2024 and won 2-1 at home on 19 May 2024. That is three Arsenal wins and two draws. Only the 14 March 2026 game sits inside the venue samples behind our number, and it is one of 19 games in each.

Pick: No bet

No bet on the result. The widest gap in our favour is the draw’s 1.0 points, against a 5-point threshold.

The price has to move a long way before this changes. Arsenal become a bet at -178 or longer, against -220 now. The draw needs +441 or longer and Everton +1546 or longer. Each of those assumes the 4.8% margin holds.

What kills the bet

There is no bet to kill at today’s price, but three things would move the number. The first is price: the thresholds above are the only ones that matter, and the prices were read once, on 22 October 2026 at 21:17 UTC. The second is the sample. When Arsenal reach 4 home games and Everton 4 away, the method switches to this season’s records, and 3-0-0 at home against 0-3-0 on the road will pull the number.

The third is team news. This page says nothing about who is available on 24 October; check the lineups before you bet anything.

The total

The total is 2.5 goals, over -120 and under -105. Without the margin the market has the over at 51.6% and the under at 48.4%. Our number has the over at 38.6% and the under at 61.4%, so we sit 13.0 points below the market on the over.

That is the widest gap on the page, and it still does not make a bet: the method never stakes the goals. It is a lean to the under, for reference only. Four of Arsenal’s 7 league games this season went over 2.5, and two of Everton’s 7. Last season it was 20 of 38 for Arsenal and 17 of 38 for Everton.

*Everton at Arsenal, English Premier League, Saturday 24 October, 10:00 AM ET, Emirates Stadium, London. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 22 October 2026, 21:17 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN (2026-27 and 2025-26 English Premier League). Nothing here states who is available.*