Liverpool vs Brentford Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet Brentford at +140. The bet holds down to +107.

The DraftKings prices are Brentford +140, the draw +270 and Liverpool +180. With the book’s 4.4% margin stripped out, the market reads Brentford 39.9%, the draw 25.9% and Liverpool 34.2%. Our number reads Brentford 51.4%, the draw 21.8% and Liverpool 26.8%.

Brentford are 11.5 points above the market. Liverpool are 7.4 below and the draw 4.1 below. The bar for a bet is 5 points, and Brentford pass it with 6.5 to spare.

The market leans to the home side already. Our number leans further: it has Brentford winning more often than not, at a price that pays as if they win 39.9% of the time.

How the number is built

In one clause: expected goals for each side are its scoring rate at the venue times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both against the league average, and a Poisson count of goals turns them into home, draw and away chances.

Brentford have played 3 home games this season, and Liverpool 3 away. Below 6 at the venue the method takes the previous season instead, so this number runs on Brentford’s 19 home games and Liverpool’s 19 away games from 2025-26, against that season’s averages: 1.53 goals a game for the home side, 1.22 for the away side, over 380 games.

Brentford were 8-8-3 at home last season, scoring 1.74 a game and conceding 1.11. Liverpool were 7-3-9 away, scoring 1.53 and conceding 1.74. That makes Brentford’s home attack 1.14 times the league rate, and Liverpool’s away defence let in goals at 1.14 times the home side’s average. Liverpool scored at 1.25 times the visitor’s rate; Brentford conceded at 0.90 of it. The result is 1.98 expected goals for Brentford and 1.38 for Liverpool.

The table, this season and last

Brentford are 4th after 6 games with 10 points, unbeaten at 2-4-0, 12 scored and 6 conceded. Liverpool are 9th with 9 points at 2-3-1, 7 scored and 7 conceded. Last season Liverpool finished 5th with 60 points and Brentford 9th with 53.

The risk sits in Liverpool’s road form this season. They are 2-1-0 away, with 5 scored and 2 conceded, which is nothing like the 7-3-9 record the number is built on. Brentford are 2-1-0 at home, 7 scored and 1 conceded. Three games at each venue are below the method’s floor of 6, so neither record moves the number.

Pick: Brentford +140

Brentford to win the game at +140, DraftKings. The bet holds down to +107. Shorter than +107, at today’s margin, the gap falls below 5 points and there is no bet.

What changes it

A shorter price on Brentford, below +107. For the other outcomes, Liverpool would need +341 or longer and the draw +471 or longer to become a bet.

The lineups. Nothing on this page covers who is available on 17 October; check the team news before you bet.

The total

The total is 2.5 goals: over -175, under +140. The market, margin removed, has the over at 60.4% and the under at 39.6%. We have the over at 65.1% and the under at 34.9%. That stays reference only, because the method bets the result and not the goals.

Last season 20 of Brentford’s 38 league games went over 2.5, and 23 of Liverpool’s 38.

The last meetings

ESPN holds five meetings from February 2024 to May 2026. Liverpool won three, 4-1, 2-0 and 2-0. Brentford won 3-2 in October 2025 as the listed home side, and the latest, in May 2026 with Liverpool listed at home, ended 1-1. They are not part of the method.

Liverpool at Brentford, English Premier League, Saturday 17 October, 10:00 AM ET, Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 15 October 2026, 20:31 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 15 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.