Israel vs Republic of Ireland Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on Israel at Republic of Ireland. The market makes Republic of Ireland the favourite at 43.0%, and nothing in the results these two teams hold can say whether that price is wrong.

DraftKings, read via ESPN on 4 October 2026, 10:34 UTC, has Republic of Ireland at +115, the draw at +235 and Israel at +215. The book’s margin is 8.1 points across the three. Taken out, the prices leave 43.0% for Republic of Ireland, 27.6% for the draw and 29.4% for Israel.

The total is 2.5 goals, with the over at -105 and the under at -120. Without the margin, the over is a 48.4% chance.

Why there is no bet

For club soccer our method is one clause: each side’s expected goals come from its scoring rate at this venue and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other, both against the league average, in a Poisson model. A side or the draw is a bet when our chance is at least 5 points above the market’s.

That needs a league, where every team plays the same opponents. National teams have none. The results ESPN holds for Republic of Ireland and Israel since September 2024 are Nations League and World Cup qualifying games, spread across divisions and groups of very different strength. A goal against the weakest team in a group counts the same as one against the strongest, and the method has no way to tell them apart.

This Nations League season is too young to fix that. On 4 October, Republic of Ireland had played three games in it and Israel three, fewer than the four we need before any bet.

Republic of Ireland at home, Israel away

Since September 2024, Republic of Ireland have played 8 competitive games at home. They won 4, drew 2 and lost 2, scoring 10 and conceding 9: 1.25 and 1.12 a game. This home game is played at Gradski stadion Backa Topola in Backa Topola, Serbia.

Israel played 8 away in the same span. The record is 2-1-5, with 10 scored and 19 conceded, or 1.25 and 2.38 a game.

Across every competitive game in that window, Republic of Ireland are 8-3-7 in 18 and Israel are 5-2-10 in 17. Those records include games against sides from other divisions, so they rank neither team.

In Group B3 of this Nations League, on 4 October, Israel are fourth with 1 point from 3 games, 1 scored and 6 conceded. Republic of Ireland are third with 4 points from 3, 5 scored and 3 conceded.

Head to head

ESPN lists three earlier meetings between the two. The latest, on 27 September 2026, ended Israel 0, Republic of Ireland 3.

• 27 September 2026: Israel 0, Republic of Ireland 3
• 4 June 2005: Republic of Ireland 2, Israel 2
• 26 March 2005: Israel 1, Republic of Ireland 1

The first of them was in 2005. Three games prove nothing about Sunday.

The total

Of Republic of Ireland’s 18 competitive games since September 2024, 10 finished with three goals or more. Israel’s went that way in 14 of 17.

The market prices the over 2.5 at 48.4% with the margin out. The same problem applies here as to the result: those games were played against opponents of every level, so the rates do not price this total. No bet on it.

Pick: no bet

No bet on Israel at Republic of Ireland: not Republic of Ireland at +115, not the draw at +235, not Israel at +215, and not the total of 2.5.

What would change it is a sample where the opponents are comparable. The group stage adds one game at a time to that: on 4 October, Republic of Ireland had played three group games. Nothing on this page says who is fit or selected for Sunday; check the lineups before any bet on this game.

Israel at Republic of Ireland, Sunday 4 October, 2:45 PM ET, Gradski stadion Backa Topola. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 4 October 2026, 10:34 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 4 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.