San Marino vs Albania Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on San Marino at Albania. The market makes Albania the favourite at 91.7%, and nothing in the results these two teams hold can say whether that price is wrong.

DraftKings, read via ESPN on 6 October 2026, 04:37 UTC, has Albania at -10000, the draw at +1300 and San Marino at +5500. The book’s margin is 7.9 points across the three. Taken out, the prices leave 91.7% for Albania, 6.6% for the draw and 1.7% for San Marino.

The total is 4.5 goals, with the over at +105 and the under at -135. Without the margin, the over is a 45.9% chance.

Why there is no bet

For club soccer our method is one clause: each side’s expected goals come from its scoring rate at this venue and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other, both against the league average, in a Poisson model. A side or the draw is a bet when our chance is at least 5 points above the market’s.

That needs a league, where every team plays the same opponents. National teams have none. The results ESPN holds for Albania and San Marino since September 2024 are Nations League and World Cup qualifying games, spread across divisions and groups of very different strength. A goal against the weakest team in a group counts the same as one against the strongest, and the method has no way to tell them apart.

This Nations League season is too young to fix that. On 6 October, Albania had played three games in it and San Marino three, fewer than the four we need before any bet.

Albania at home, San Marino away

Since September 2024, Albania have played 8 competitive games at home. They won 3, drew 2 and lost 3, scoring 7 and conceding 5: 0.88 and 0.62 a game.

San Marino played 7 away in the same span. The record is 1-0-6, with 4 scored and 26 conceded, or 0.57 and 3.71 a game.

Across every competitive game in that window, Albania are 8-3-7 in 18 and San Marino are 2-1-12 in 15. Those records include games against sides from other divisions, so they rank neither team.

In Group C1 of this Nations League, on 6 October, San Marino are fourth with 0 points from 3 games, 0 scored and 14 conceded. Albania are second with 6 points from 3, 6 scored and 2 conceded.

Head to head

ESPN lists four earlier meetings between the two. The latest, on 29 September 2026, ended San Marino 0, Albania 3.

• 29 September 2026: San Marino 0, Albania 3
• 8 September 2021: Albania 5, San Marino 0
• 31 March 2021: San Marino 0, Albania 2
• 8 June 2014: San Marino 0, Albania 3

The first of them was in 2014. Four games prove nothing about Tuesday.

The total

Of Albania’s 18 competitive games since September 2024, 6 finished with three goals or more. San Marino’s went that way in 10 of 15.

The market prices the over 4.5 at 45.9% with the margin out. The same problem applies here as to the result: those games were played against opponents of every level, so the rates do not price this total. No bet on it.

Pick: no bet

No bet on San Marino at Albania: not Albania at -10000, not the draw at +1300, not San Marino at +5500, and not the total of 4.5.

What would change it is a sample where the opponents are comparable. The group stage adds one game at a time to that: on 6 October, Albania had played three group games. Nothing on this page says who is fit or selected for Tuesday; check the lineups before any bet on this game.

San Marino at Albania, Tuesday 6 October, 2:45 PM ET, Air Albania Stadium. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 October 2026, 04:37 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 6 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.