UEFA Nations League
UEFA Nations League · Tuesday 6 October
Iceland vs Estonia Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on Iceland at Estonia. The market makes Iceland the favourite at 59.2%, and nothing in the results these two teams hold can say whether that price is wrong.
DraftKings, read via ESPN on 6 October 2026, 04:37 UTC, has Estonia at +450, the draw at +290 and Iceland at -175. The book’s margin is 7.5 points across the three. Taken out, the prices leave 16.9% for Estonia, 23.9% for the draw and 59.2% for Iceland.
The total is 2.5 goals, with the over at -115 and the under at -110. Without the margin, the over is a 50.5% chance.
Why there is no bet
For club soccer our method is one clause: each side’s expected goals come from its scoring rate at this venue and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other, both against the league average, in a Poisson model. A side or the draw is a bet when our chance is at least 5 points above the market’s.
That needs a league, where every team plays the same opponents. National teams have none. The results ESPN holds for Estonia and Iceland since September 2024 are Nations League and World Cup qualifying games, spread across divisions and groups of very different strength. A goal against the weakest team in a group counts the same as one against the strongest, and the method has no way to tell them apart.
This Nations League season is too young to fix that. On 6 October, Estonia had played three games in it and Iceland three, fewer than the four we need before any bet.
Estonia at home, Iceland away
Since September 2024, Estonia have played 8 competitive games at home. They won 2, drew 1 and lost 5, scoring 7 and conceding 13: 0.88 and 1.62 a game.
Iceland played 8 away in the same span. The record is 3-0-5, with 11 scored and 13 conceded, or 1.38 and 1.62 a game.
Across every competitive game in that window, Estonia are 3-4-10 in 17 and Iceland are 6-3-8 in 17. Those records include games against sides from other divisions, so they rank neither team.
In Group C4 of this Nations League, on 6 October, Iceland are first with 7 points from 3 games, 7 scored and 1 conceded. Estonia are second with 5 points from 3, 2 scored and 1 conceded.
Head to head
ESPN lists five earlier meetings between the two. The latest, on 26 September 2026, ended Iceland 1, Estonia 1.
- 26 September 2026: Iceland 1, Estonia 1
- 8 January 2023: Iceland 1, Estonia 1
- 15 January 2019: Iceland 0, Estonia 0
- 31 March 2015: Estonia 1, Iceland 1
- 4 June 2014: Iceland 1, Estonia 0
The first of them was in 2014. Five games prove nothing about Tuesday.
The total
Of Estonia’s 17 competitive games since September 2024, 9 finished with three goals or more. Iceland’s went that way in 12 of 17.
The market prices the over 2.5 at 50.5% with the margin out. The same problem applies here as to the result: those games were played against opponents of every level, so the rates do not price this total. No bet on it.
Pick: no bet
No bet on Iceland at Estonia: not Estonia at +450, not the draw at +290, not Iceland at -175, and not the total of 2.5.
What would change it is a sample where the opponents are comparable. The group stage adds one game at a time to that: on 6 October, Estonia had played three group games. Nothing on this page says who is fit or selected for Tuesday; check the lineups before any bet on this game.
Iceland at Estonia, Tuesday 6 October, 2:45 PM ET, A. Le Coq Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 October 2026, 04:37 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 6 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.