UEFA Nations League
UEFA Nations League · Sunday 4 October
Andorra vs Malta Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on Andorra at Malta. No prices were posted when this was read, and the results these two teams hold could not set a fair one.
ESPN carried no DraftKings line for the game on 30 September 2026, 07:54 UTC. That leaves no market figure to test, and there is no figure of ours to set against one either, for the reason below.
Why there is no bet
For club soccer our method is one clause: each side’s expected goals come from its scoring rate at this venue and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other, both against the league average, in a Poisson model. A side or the draw is a bet when our chance is at least 5 points above the market’s.
That needs a league, where every team plays the same opponents. National teams have none. The results ESPN holds for Malta and Andorra since September 2024 are Nations League and World Cup qualifying games, spread across divisions and groups of very different strength. A goal against the weakest team in a group counts the same as one against the strongest, and the method has no way to tell them apart.
This Nations League season is too young to fix that. On 30 September, Malta had played one game in it and Andorra two, fewer than the four we need before any bet.
Malta at home, Andorra away
Since September 2024, Malta have played 7 competitive games at home. They won 1, drew 2 and lost 4, scoring 3 and conceding 10: 0.43 and 1.43 a game.
Andorra played 7 away in the same span. The record is 0-3-4, with 2 scored and 12 conceded, or 0.29 and 1.71 a game.
Across every competitive game in that window, Malta are 4-3-8 in 15 and Andorra are 0-3-11 in 14. Those records include games against sides from other divisions, so they rank neither team.
In Group D1 of this Nations League, on 30 September, Andorra are third with 1 point from 2 games, 1 scored and 2 conceded. Malta are first with 3 points from 1, 2 scored and 1 conceded.
Head to head
ESPN lists five earlier meetings between the two. The latest, on 24 September 2026, ended Andorra 1, Malta 2.
- 24 September 2026: Andorra 1, Malta 2
- 19 November 2024: Malta 0, Andorra 0
- 10 September 2024: Andorra 0, Malta 1
- 14 November 2020: Malta 3, Andorra 1
- 10 October 2020: Andorra 0, Malta 0
The first of them was in 2020. Five games prove nothing about Sunday.
The total
Of Malta’s 15 competitive games since September 2024, 5 finished with three goals or more. Andorra’s went that way in 5 of 14.
No total was posted when this was read. Those games were played against opponents of every level, so the rates would not price one anyway.
Pick: no bet
No bet on Andorra at Malta, at any price posted before kickoff.
What would change it is a sample where the opponents are comparable. The group stage adds one game at a time to that: on 30 September, Malta had played one group game. Nothing on this page says who is fit or selected for Sunday; check the lineups before any bet on this game.
Andorra at Malta, Sunday 4 October, 12:00 PM ET, Ta’ Qali National Stadium. No prices posted when read, 30 September 2026, 07:54 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 30 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.