Bears vs Packers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Take Green Bay +2.5. Last season’s rates make the Packers the favourite at home, and the market has them as underdogs.

The line has crossed zero. DraftKings opened Green Bay -3 with a total of 49.5. Read through ESPN on 8 October 2026 at 20:33 UTC, the same book has Chicago -2.5 at -105, Green Bay +2.5 at -115, and a total of 45.5. That is a move of five and a half points on the side and four on the total. ESPN quotes no other book for this game, so one book is the whole market here.

The number the argument rests on

My method for the side, in one clause: half the gap between the two teams’ points per game differentials, plus 2.5 points for home field. Chicago was +26 over 17 games in 2025, +1.53 a game. Green Bay was +31 over 17, +1.82 a game. Half the gap is 0.15 in Green Bay’s favour. Add 2.5 for home field and the Packers are 2.65-point favourites.

The market makes them 2.5-point underdogs. Against that, the edge is 5.15 points.

My threshold is two points. Below two I pass, because a number built on season rates carries more error than that.

What this season says

This season’s results lean the same way as the market. Chicago is 3-1 and has outscored its opponents 112-65. Green Bay is 2-2 and has been outscored 105-73. Put those four games through the same method and Chicago is a 7.38-point favourite, an edge of 4.88 the other way.

So the two seasons disagree by about ten points, and the market sits between them. Four weeks of 2026 are played, so a bet has to clear the threshold twice: on last season’s 17 games, and again with this season’s four counted in at their weight. Weighted 17 to four, Green Bay comes out favoured by 0.74, and the edge on +2.5 is 3.24. Both cuts clear.

One of Chicago’s four games carries a lot of that. The Bears won 59-37 in Carolina in Week 1, which is 22 of their +47. Since then they have lost 9-3 to Minnesota and beaten Philadelphia 27-7 and the Jets 23-12.

Green Bay’s four: a 39-22 loss in Minnesota, a 20-17 win against the Jets, a 35-14 loss at home to Atlanta and a 17-14 win at Tampa Bay.

Pick: Packers +2.5

The price is -115, which needs a 53.5% win rate to break even. The weighted edge of 3.24 is the smaller of the two cuts, and it still clears two by more than a point.

Venue backs the number. Green Bay went 5-3 at home in 2025 and allowed 17.9 points a game there. Chicago went 5-4 on the road and allowed 30.4 a game away from home.

The limit of the bet is the weighting. Count this season’s four games as heavily as last season’s 17 and the number becomes Chicago by 2.36. Against Chicago -2.5 that is an edge of 0.14, under my threshold. I weight by games played because that is the sample each rate rests on. If you weight the new season more, this is a pass for you.

The total: no bet

My method for the total: each team’s expected points are the average of what it scored a game and what the other side allowed a game. Chicago scored 25.9 a game in 2025 and Green Bay allowed 21.2, which gives Chicago 23.55. Green Bay scored 23.0 and Chicago allowed 24.4, which gives Green Bay 23.7. That is 47.25.

Against 45.5 the edge is 1.75 toward the over. This season’s four games give 44.38, toward the under, and the weighted number is 46.7. None of the three clears two.

Last season’s games split down the middle against 45.5: 9 of Chicago’s 17 went over, and 8 of Green Bay’s. This page first took the under 49.5. The total has since dropped four points to 45.5, and at this number there is no bet.

The three meetings

These two met three times last season. Green Bay won 28-21 at home on 7 December 2025. Chicago won 22-16 at home on 20 December, and 31-27 at home in the Wild Card round on 10 January 2026.

An earlier version of this page dated the December game in Chicago the 21st and left out the playoff game. Both are corrected here. Three games is not a rate, and the number above puts no weight on them.

The injury report

ESPN’s injury report for this game, read on 8 October 2026, lists Chicago quarterback Caleb Williams as out with a hamstring injury. Chicago also lists safety Anthony Johnson Jr. and cornerback Kyler Gordon as out, and running backs D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai as questionable.

Green Bay has wide receiver Savion Williams on injured reserve. Defensive end Lukas Van Ness, defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt, offensive tackle Anthony Belton and center Jager Burton are questionable.

My number is built from 2025 team rates and does not move for injuries. It does not know who starts at quarterback for Chicago, and neither does this page: ESPN’s report does not say.

What would change the call

The weighted edge stays above two down to Green Bay +1.5. At +1 it falls to 1.74 and I pass. A move back toward Green Bay as favourite takes the bet away faster than anything else.

A change in the injury report is the other thing to check, Chicago’s quarterback above all. Read both injury reports and the current price before you bet; the single-book price above was read on Thursday, three days before the game.

Pick: Packers +2.5.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers, Sunday 11 October 2026, Lambeau Field. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, opening and current lines, read 8 October 2026, 20:33 UTC. Injuries: ESPN’s injury report for the game, read 8 October 2026. Results: Nucleus, 2025 season and 2026 through Week 4. Every Week 5 game: NFL Week 5 odds and predictions.