Bills vs Vikings Final Score: Bills Win 23-6

Final: Buffalo Bills 23, Minnesota Vikings 6, Monday 9 November at U.S. Bank Stadium.

Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “Take the Vikings +3.5. Even with Kyler Murray out, my number has Buffalo winning by less than a point.” Vikings +3.5 lost: Minnesota lost by 17.

What decided it

Buffalo won the fourth quarter by 10. Buffalo turned the ball over 1 time to Minnesota’s 3, and gained 339 yards to 178.

The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is BUF -3.5, with a total of 46.5. Buffalo covered as the favourite. The 29 points went under the total.

What comes next

Buffalo plays next at the New York Jets on Sunday 15 November. Minnesota plays next at the Green Bay Packers on Sunday 15 November.

The prediction, as published before the game

Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Pick the Vikings +3.5 – Bills vs Vikings prediction, odds and best picks”.

Take the Vikings +3.5. Even with Kyler Murray out, my number has Buffalo winning by less than a point.

Watch Buffalo’s offence when it gets into Minnesota’s end. Last season the Vikings allowed 14.9 points a game at home. If they hold the Bills to field goals there, Buffalo needs more than one score to cover, and I can’t see the Bills getting that margin in a Monday night road game.

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings kicks off Monday 9 November 2026 at 8:15 pm ET. Across 11 US sportsbooks read at 21:28 UTC, nine have Buffalo -3.5 and two have Buffalo -3. The median moneyline is Buffalo -192 and Minnesota +164. A book builds in a margin, an extra cut that makes the two prices add up to more than 100%. With the margin taken out, the market gives Buffalo a 63.4% chance to win and Minnesota 36.6%.

How Buffalo by 0.59 is reached

The method for the side, in one line: take half the gap between the two teams’ per-game point differentials, then add 2.5 points for home field. In 2025 Buffalo was +116 over 17 games, +6.82 a game. Minnesota was +11, +0.65 a game. On those numbers Buffalo is a 0.59-point favourite.

The market has Buffalo by 3.5. That leaves a gap of 2.91 points on the Vikings side. My bar is two points. A number built on season rates carries error, so anything under two is a pass.

The bet also has to clear on a blend of both seasons, weighted by games played. That blend has Buffalo by 0.14, a gap of 3.36. This season on its own leans the other way, with Minnesota by 1.79. Both tests clear, and they point the same way.

Kyler Murray is out

ESPN’s game summary injury list, read on 9 November 2026 at about 21:30 UTC, has Kyler Murray out for Minnesota. He has been the Vikings’ starting quarterback this season and threw passes in six of their seven games. When a starting quarterback is out, the method has to be run again on games he did not play.

There are enough of those games. Murray played for Arizona in 2025, so all 17 Vikings games from that season are without him. In 2026 only Week 2 is: a 9-3 win at Chicago with Carson Wentz at quarterback. That makes 18 games, well over the minimum of four. The numbers above already come from that re-run. With Murray’s games left in, the weighted blend has Minnesota by 0.21. With or without him, the call is Vikings +3.5.

This season so far

Records are outside my number, but here they are. Both teams are 6-1. Minnesota is 3-0 at home and 3-1 on the road. Buffalo is 3-1 at home and 3-0 on the road, and has outscored opponents 233-181 over seven games. The Bills’ last game was a 36-10 win over Baltimore in Week 8.

Look at Buffalo’s road scores: 36-31 at Houston, 37-34 at the Rams, 33-30 at Las Vegas. The Bills won all three. At Las Vegas they were giving 5 and did not cover. They also lost 29-26 at home to New England as 7-point favourites. This is a team that wins more often than it wins big.

The only 2026 Vikings game in the re-run is the 9-3 win at Chicago, where Minnesota covered as a 4.5-point underdog. One game is not a rate, and it is the only reason the 2026 number leans Minnesota.

Minnesota at home, Buffalo on the road

The method uses full-season rates plus a flat 2.5 points for home field. It does not use home and road splits, so these sit outside the number. The splits also leave out neutral-site games, so “at home” here means games played in each team’s own stadium.

This is where the game gets decided. Minnesota went 4-4 at home in 2025, scoring 22.8 a game and allowing 14.9. Buffalo went 5-3 on the road, scoring 25.0 and allowing 19.2. Put a road offence that scored 25 against a home defence that allowed under 15, and the game shrinks fast. A small game is exactly where 3.5 points does the most for you.

The halves the method leaves out point the same way. Buffalo was much stronger at home, 7-2 with 31.2 points a game. Minnesota was weaker on the road, scoring 17.1 and allowing 24.7. Neither of those halves is in play on Monday.

The season around it

Buffalo went 12-5 in 2025, scoring 28.3 a game and allowing 21.5, a differential of +116. The Bills were 5-3 in one-score games and 4-2 in the AFC East. In the playoffs they won 27-24 at Jacksonville in the Wild Card round, then lost 33-30 at Denver in the divisional round.

Minnesota went 9-8 with a differential of +11, scoring 20.2 and allowing 19.6. The Vikings were 5-4 in one-score games and 4-2 in the NFC North. Their median game total was 38. Buffalo’s was 43.

These teams are in different conferences, and the data has no meeting between them from 2025 onward. Nothing head-to-head feeds into the number.

Pick: Vikings +3.5

The gap is 2.91 points on 2025 and 3.36 on the blend, both over the bar of two. Nine of 11 books had Buffalo -3.5 at 21:28 UTC on 9 November, and two had -3. Prices on the Buffalo side run from -120 to +102 across the 11 books, so shop the Vikings side before you bet.

The line has moved. The earliest read, on 28 October, had Buffalo -2. It reached -2.5 on 5 November, and -3 and -3.5 by 21:10 UTC on game day. At Vikings +2 this was no bet. At +3.5 it is one.

What kills the bet

The price first. The Vikings side is a bet at +2.59 or better, so +3 and +3.5 are both bets. At +2.5 I pass. For Buffalo to become the bet, the Bills would have to be getting 1.86 points or more.

Murray is the one name on the injury list that matters here, and the method has already been re-run without him. If he is listed as available, the call still stands: with his games counted, the blend has Minnesota by 0.21. Check the lineups and the current number before you bet.

The total and the moneyline

For the total, each team’s expected points are the average of what it scored a game and what the other side allowed. On 2025 that gives Buffalo 23.95 and Minnesota 20.85, a total of 44.8. The weighted blend, without Murray, is 43.04. Eight books have 45 and three have 45.5.

That puts the under 0.2 points clear on 2025 and 1.96 on the blend. Neither reaches two. The under becomes a bet at 46.8 or higher, and the over at 41.04 or lower. The total opened the season’s reads at 49.5 on 13 September and has come down to 45, which takes away the room the under had. It leans under, but it is no bet. Six of Buffalo’s seven games this season went over 45. Minnesota’s one game in the sample finished on 12.

The moneyline is context only. Minnesota at +164 is priced to win 36.6% of the time. My number puts this game within a point either way, so the spread is the place to bet it.

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings, Monday 9 November 2026, 8:15 pm ET. Prices: median of 11 US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 9 November 2026, 21:28 UTC. Injuries: ESPN game summary injury list, read 9 November 2026, about 21:30 UTC. Results: Nucleus, 2025 and 2026 regular seasons, checked against ESPN.