Seahawks vs Raiders Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Take the over 40.5. Our number for Seattle at Las Vegas is 44.58, and the side is a pass.

All 11 sportsbooks read through Nucleus on 13 November 2026 at 21:35 UTC have the total at 40.5. Seattle is a 6.5-point favourite at every one of them, priced between -115 and -106. Our total sits 4.08 points above the market. Our threshold is 2.

Seahawks at Raiders odds and what they say

On the moneyline, the median has Las Vegas at +238 and Seattle at -294. Every book builds a margin into its prices, so a pair of prices adds to more than 100%. With that margin taken out, the market gives Seattle a 71.6% chance to win and Las Vegas 28.4%. The moneyline is context here. We stake the spread or the total.

The total has fallen five points in nine days. It was first read at 45.5 on 4 November at 18:10 UTC. It reached 41 on 10 November and 40.5 on 13 November at 21:10 UTC. The spread opened at Seattle -7 on 10 September, dropped as low as -3 on 10 November, and was back to -6.5 on 13 November.

How 44.58 is reached

The method, in one clause: each team’s expected points are the average of what it scored a game and what the other side allowed a game. In 2025 Seattle scored 28.4 a game and Las Vegas allowed 25.4. That puts Seattle at 26.9. Las Vegas scored 14.2 a game and Seattle allowed 17.2, which puts Las Vegas at 15.7. The 2025 total is 42.6.

Against 40.5, that is an edge of 2.1 on the over. It clears the threshold by a tenth of a point. Below 2 we pass, because a number built on season rates carries more error than that.

Nine weeks of 2026 are played, so the bet has to clear on a second number as well. The same method on this season’s games alone gives a total of 48.33. Weight the two seasons by games played, 17 to nine, and the total is 44.58. The edge on the weighted number is 4.08, on the same side.

This season so far

Records and recent results sit outside the method; they are context. Seattle is 5-4, 4-2 at home and 1-2 on the road, with 202 points scored and 162 allowed. Las Vegas is 4-5, 1-3 at home and 3-2 on the road, with 238 scored and 268 allowed.

Raiders games have run high in 2026. Seven of their nine finished over 40.5, on totals of 40, 40, 62, 57, 62, 63, 56, 71 and 55. Seattle is the risk to the over: four of nine went over 40.5, on 23, 38, 64, 53, 61, 31, 23, 51 and 20. The Seahawks‘ last two home games finished on 51 and 20.

Seattle on the road, Las Vegas at home

The splits below are not in our number. They leave out neutral-site games. In 2025 Seattle went 8-1 away, scoring 26.4 a game and allowing 14.4. Las Vegas went 2-7 at home, scoring 16.6 and allowing 23.6.

This season the road and home records point the other way for Las Vegas. The Raiders are 3-2 away and 1-3 at home, where they lost 30-27 to Kansas City, 33-30 to Buffalo and 35-21 to the Los Angeles Rams. Their only home win was 27-13 over Miami in Week 1. Seattle is 1-2 on the road: a 31-7 win at Arizona, a 33-31 loss at Washington and a 17-14 loss at Denver. Three and four games are not a rate.

The season around it

Seattle won 14 and lost 3 in 2025 and outscored opponents by 191. The Seahawks went 6-3 in one-score games. They beat San Francisco 41-6 and the Los Angeles Rams 31-27 at home, then won the Super Bowl 29-13 against New England at a neutral site in Santa Clara. Las Vegas went 3-14, was outscored by 191, went 2-5 in one-score games and 1-5 in the AFC West.

The two teams have not met since the start of the 2025 season. No meeting is inside our number.

Pick: Over 40.5

The edge is 2.1 on 2025 and 4.08 on the weighted number. Both clear the 2-point threshold on the over. The line is 40.5 at all 11 books, read 13 November 2026 at 21:35 UTC. The first total read for this game was 45.5, on 4 November.

The over is a bet at 40.6 or below. Totals come in half points, so in practice that means 40.5 or lower. At 41 the 2025 edge falls under 2 and we pass.

What kills the bet

The price first. One half point up, to 41, and the over is no bet. The under would need 46.58 or higher to become the bet, six points above where the market sits.

The 2025 edge is the thinner of the two. A 2.1-point gap leaves almost no room. Check the injury reports and the lineups before you bet, and check the total again, because it has moved from 45.5 to 40.5 since 4 November.

No bet on the spread

The method for the side: half the gap between the two teams’ per-game point differentials, plus 2.5 points for home field. In 2025 Seattle was +11.24 a game and Las Vegas -11.24. That makes Seattle an 8.74-point favourite, 2.24 points more than the 6.5 on offer.

The 2026 games say something else. Seattle is +4.44 a game this season and Las Vegas -3.33, which gives Seattle by 1.39. The games-weighted number is Seattle by 6.19, a gap of 0.31 on the other side.

The rule needs both numbers to clear 2 points in the same direction. Here 2025 favours Seattle and the blend leans to Las Vegas by a third of a point. No bet. Seattle would become a bet at -4.19 or better, and Las Vegas at +10.74 or better. At -6.5 the price is right on the blended number.

Over 40.5.

Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday 15 November 2026, 4:05 pm ET. Prices: median of 11 US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 13 November 2026, 21:35 UTC; line history from the same source, spread first read 10 September 2026, total first read 4 November 2026. Results: Nucleus, 2025 and 2026 regular seasons and 2025 playoffs, checked against ESPN.