Skip to content
Scores&Stats
ES
NFL · Thursday 8 October
XFacebookWhatsAppTelegramRedditEmail

Buccaneers at Cowboys Final Score: Buccaneers Win 24-16

By Kyle ParkerUpdated 12 Oct 2026

Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Dallas Cowboys 16, Thursday 8 October at AT&T Stadium.

Our call won. Before the game this page said: “Dallas now lays 8.5 to a team that has lost all four of its games by seven points or fewer. I am still on the Buccaneers and the points.” Buccaneers +8.5 won: Tampa Bay won by 8.

What decided it

Tampa Bay won the third quarter by 17. Tampa Bay turned the ball over 0 times to Dallas’s 3, and gained 419 yards to 366.

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0717024
Dallas Cowboys730616
Scoring by quarter, from ESPN.

The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is DAL -8.5, with a total of 49.5. Dallas did not cover as the favourite. The 40 points went under the total.

What comes next

Tampa Bay plays next against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday 18 October. Dallas plays next at the Green Bay Packers on Sunday 18 October.

The prediction, as published before the game

Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Buccaneers at Cowboys Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.

Dallas now lays 8.5 to a team that has lost all four of its games by seven points or fewer. I am still on the Buccaneers and the points.

What this page said on 28 September: Buccaneers +3.5. The line has moved five points since then, and Tampa Bay has played a game without its starting quarterback. That is a real reason for the move. It is not enough of one for 8.5.

Pick: Buccaneers and the points

All 11 US sportsbooks in the read of 6 October 2026 have Dallas favoured by between 7.5 and 9.5. The median is 8.5. The best of it is +9.5 on Tampa Bay at DraftKings (-115) and FanDuel (-118), and the worst is +7.5 at Bovada.

Buccaneers spread from +3 to +7.5Buccaneers spread: the last time each line was on offer+2.5+3.5+4.5+5.5+6.5+7.5+8.5+9.5+10.5+313 Sep 16:10+106 Oct 00:10+9.56 Oct 04:10+8.56 Oct 04:10+7.56 Oct 04:10Higher means more points for Buccaneers: the market moved toward Cowboys.
Source: US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 2026-10-06 04:20 UTC. Each point is the newest time any book quoted that line (times UTC).

Dallas -3.5 was last posted on 13 September. In the hours before the read of 6 October, books had also posted 10 and 10.5.

My rule is the one this page used last week. I take each team’s points differential per game from last season, set one against the other, and compare the result with the spread. Two points or more between my number and the market’s is a bet.

Tampa Bay went 8-9 in 2025 and finished minus 31, about minus 1.8 a game. Dallas went 7-9-1 and finished minus 40, about minus 2.4 a game. On last season, Tampa Bay is the better side by half a point, and the market has Dallas by 8.5. That is a gap of nine points, against a bar of two.

The doubt: Baker Mayfield is out

ESPN’s injury list, read on 6 October, has Baker Mayfield out. That is the biggest thing my rule cannot see, because it runs on last season’s results and knows nothing about who plays quarterback.

So here is what Tampa Bay looks like without him. Against Green Bay on Sunday, Jalon Daniels threw all 27 of Tampa Bay’s passes, and two of them were intercepted. The Buccaneers lost 17-14. The market had them +3 at home, so the bet pushed.

One game is not a trend, and I am not calling it one. But the doubt has to clear a high bar here: for Dallas to cover, it has to win by nine or more.

Why Dallas does not pull away

Since the start of last season, Dallas has won by nine or more in 4 of its 21 games: 37-22 over the Jets, 44-22 over Washington and 33-16 at Las Vegas in 2025, and 37-20 over Washington this season. At home it has done it twice in ten games.

2025 point margin in every game, Cowboys and Buccaneers2025 regular season, point margin in every gameCowboys7-9-1-4+3-170+15-3+22-20-10+17+3+3-14-8-17+7-17Buccaneers8-9+3+1+2-6+3+11-15+20-5-12-27+3-4-1-3-3+2Blue bars are wins, grey bars are losses. Neutral-site games are included here.
Source: NFL 2025 results via Nucleus, checked game by game against ESPN.

The reason is the defence. Dallas allowed 30.1 points a game last season, and has allowed 28, 20, 34 and 30 this season. A team that gives up that much does not earn an 8.5-point cushion against anybody, and the Cowboys have needed their offence to win: 37 against Washington, 34 at Houston on Sunday, where they won by four.

Tampa Bay, for all of 0-4, has not been blown out. The four losses: 33-27 at Cincinnati, 23-19 to Cleveland, 23-16 to Minnesota and 17-14 to Green Bay. Last season, 12 of its 17 games finished within seven points either way, and it lost by more than 8.5 only three times.

Two sets of numbers are on Dallas’s side. The first is the venue split: in 2025 Dallas at home scored 29.9 and allowed 30.4, and Tampa Bay on the road scored 21.0 and allowed 24.7.

Cowboys at home and Buccaneers on the road in 20252025: Cowboys at home against Buccaneers on the roadPoints scored per gameCowboys at home 29.9Buccaneers on the road 21.0Points allowed per gameCowboys at home 30.4Buccaneers on the road 24.7RecordCowboys at home 4-3-1Buccaneers on the road 4-5
Source: NFL 2025 results via Nucleus, checked game by game against ESPN. Neutral-site games are left out of both.

Put those side by side and Dallas comes out about three points better at home. That is worth a field goal. The price is 8.5.

The second is this season. Dallas has outscored its opponents by 10 in four games and Tampa Bay has been outscored by 20, which puts them 7.5 points a game apart. That is four games against last season’s 17, and even it stops a point short of the price.

The price line

A bet on Tampa Bay at +7.5 or more. At +7 or less, pass. Seven is the widest Tampa Bay has lost by this season, and at +7 that loss is a push instead of a win.

The moneyline has Dallas at -455 and Tampa Bay at +360, the median of 11 books. Take the margin out and that gives Tampa Bay a 21.0% chance to win.

Moneyline implies Buccaneers 21.0 percent, Cowboys 79.0 percentChance to win the game, as pricedBuccaneers 21.0%Cowboys 79.0%From the median moneylines of 11 books, Buccaneers +360 and Cowboys -455, margin removed.
Source: US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 2026-10-06 04:20 UTC.

I do not want that. A team that is 0-4, and plays this one without its starter, is a points bet and nothing more.

The total

The total is 47.5 at all 11 books. No bet.

Total from 51 to 47.5The total: the last time each number was on offer46474849505152535113 Sep 16:1052.513 Sep 17:1046.55 Oct 09:10475 Oct 15:1047.56 Oct 04:10Selected steps where more than five numbers were quoted.
Source: US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 2026-10-06 04:20 UTC. Each point is the newest time any book quoted that line (times UTC).

My rule for totals averages each team’s scoring last season with the other’s points allowed, then adds the two. That lands on 52.2, which says over. I do not trust the Tampa Bay half of that number, because it is last season’s offence with Mayfield, and without him on Sunday it scored 14.

The two teams pull in opposite directions. Dallas games went over 47.5 in 13 of 17 last season and have gone over in all four this season: 48, 57, 65 and 64 points. Tampa Bay games went over in 7 of 17, and this season only the 60 at Cincinnati did.

2025 game totals for Cowboys and Buccaneers against a total of 47.52025: total points in every game, against this week's 47.5203040506070809047.5Cowboysmedian 57Buccaneersmedian 43Each dot is one 2025 regular-season game. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: NFL 2025 results via Nucleus, checked game by game against ESPN. The line: median of the books quoting the game.

With one side pointing at 57 and the other at 43, the median totals of last season, I have nothing on 47.5.

What would change it

The price. At +7 or shorter the bet is gone. If Mayfield is listed as available before Thursday, the main doubt goes and the price line above still holds.

ESPN’s lists, read on 6 October, also have Tampa Bay without Antoine Winfield Jr. and Benjamin Morrison in the secondary. Dallas is without Cobie Durant and DeMarvion Overshown, and lists Tyler Smith on injured reserve. Read both lists again on Thursday before you bet.

Buccaneers +8.5. Take the points on Thursday night.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys, Thursday 8 October 2026, 8:15 PM ET. Prices: median across 11 US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 6 October 2026, 04:20 UTC. 2025 and 2026 results and closing lines: Nucleus. Injury lists and the Week 4 passing figures: ESPN, read 6 October 2026. Every Week 5 game: NFL Week 5 odds and predictions.