Falcons at Saints Final Score: Falcons Win 45-24

Final: Atlanta Falcons 45, New Orleans Saints 24, Monday 5 October at Caesars Superdome.

Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “Take the under 47.5 in Falcons at Saints.” The under 47.5 lost: the teams scored 69.

What decided it

Atlanta won the first quarter by 14. Atlanta turned the ball over 0 times to New Orleans’s 1, and gained 420 yards to 320.

The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is NO -1.5, with a total of 48.5. New Orleans did not cover as the favourite. The 69 points went over the total.

What comes next

Atlanta plays next against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday 11 October: our prediction. New Orleans plays next against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday 11 October: our prediction.

The prediction, as published before the game

Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Falcons at Saints prediction: Take the under 47.5”.

Take the under 47.5 in Falcons at Saints. Neither team scored 21 a game last season, and the total has gone up anyway.

Watch New Orleans with the ball. The Saints scored 18.0 a game last season. A total this high needs them to keep scoring like the team that has put up 27 a game in September.

How I make the call

Each team’s points per game from last season, averaged with what the other side allowed, gives me a score for the game. Atlanta scored 20.8 and New Orleans allowed 22.5, so about 21.7 for the Falcons. New Orleans scored 18.0 and Atlanta allowed 23.6, so about 20.8 for the Saints. That is 42.5 points, five under the market.

My rule is a field goal or more of disagreement, and a move I can see the cause of. Both hold. The total was first seen at 45.5 on 16 September, it reached 48.5 on 28 September and sits at 47.5 now, and the reason is on the scoreboard: two of the Saints’ three games this season went past 60.

The tell

That dashed line is 47.5. New Orleans went over it in 3 of 17 games last season. Atlanta went over it in 6. Not one of the Saints’ eight home games last season reached 47.5. The highest was 47, a 26-21 loss to San Francisco.

The two meetings last season were lower still. Atlanta won 24-10 in New Orleans on 23 November and 19-17 at home on 4 January. That is 34 points and 36 points.

What this season adds

New Orleans lost 31-30 in Detroit, won 24-17 in Baltimore and lost 35-27 at home to Las Vegas. Those games finished on 61, 41 and 62. Atlanta lost 20-13 in Pittsburgh and 34-3 at home to Carolina, then won 35-14 in Green Bay: 33, 37 and 49.

Three of those six went over 47.5, and two of them were Saints games. That is the whole case for the over, and it is three weeks long.

This is what decides it for me. Run both teams’ games this season through the same working and it still comes to about 47.2, under the number. So the market has priced these teams above last season’s rates and above this season’s rates too. The total went from 44.5 at the low end on 16 September to 48.5, and every number from 47 up was first seen on 28 September. It has given back a point since: on 1 October seven books hang 47.5 and four hang 48, and the gap to last season’s rates is still five points. A team that scored 17.6 a game at home last season has put up 27 a game for three weeks. I can’t see that holding for a whole Monday night, and I want the under.

The spread

New Orleans is laying 2.5 at 10 of the 11 books, and BetUS has 2. It was first seen at 2.5 on 16 September, went to 3.5 by 23 September, was 3 on 28 September, and is back at 2.5.

On last season’s rates Atlanta is the slightly better team, by less than a point on a neutral field. On this season’s three games New Orleans is better by about 2.5. The two seasons disagree on which team is better, and when they do, the side is not where I bet. No bet on the spread.

Last season, game by game

Both finished strong. New Orleans won four of its last five. Atlanta won its last four, all by seven or fewer, and the last of those was the 19-17 win over New Orleans.

Atlanta went 8-9 and was outscored by 48. New Orleans went 6-11 and was outscored by 77. Neither of those is the profile of a team that runs up points on a Monday night.

What the moneyline says

About 56.8 percent for New Orleans once the margin is out, from -145 and +122. A short home favourite, which is what a line of 2.5 says.

The price on the winner and the spread agree with each other. The total is the one that has moved past the evidence, and it is the one I am betting.

Take the under 47.5. Last season’s rates put this game at 42.5, this season’s at about 47, and the Saints did not play a home game over 47.5 all last season.

Prices on this page are the median of 11 US sportsbooks, read on 1 October 2026.

Injury report

From ESPN’s injury listings for both rosters, read 1 October 2026, 07:53 UTC. Statuses change up to kickoff, and this page’s call does not price them.

Atlanta Falcons: Out: Storm Norton (OT, foot – surgery), Anterio Thompson (DT, undisclosed), DeAngelo Malone (LB, undisclosed); questionable: Samson Ebukam (DE, hamstring); on injured reserve: A.J. Terrell Jr. (CB, groin), Da’Shawn Hand (DT, quadriceps – surgery), Cameron Williams (OL, ankle), Trey Sermon (RB, undisclosed), JD Bertrand (LB, undisclosed), Beaux Collins (WR, undisclosed); suspended: James Pearce Jr. (LB, suspension).

New Orleans Saints: Out: Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, hamstring – strain), Mason Tipton (WR, leg), Nick Saldiveri (OT, knee); questionable: Barion Brown (WR, hamstring), Martin Emerson Jr. (CB, shoulder), Christen Miller (DT, toe), Anfernee Jennings (LB, knee), Pete Werner (LB, neck – stinger); on injured reserve: Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT, ankle – surgery), Zach Wood (LS, calf – strain), Dillon Radunz (G, knee – acl), Lorenzo Styles Jr. (S, calf), Jaylan Ford (LB, undisclosed), David Long Jr. (CB, undisclosed), Jordyn Tyson (WR, hamstring – strain), Moliki Matavao (TE, knee), Ty Chandler (RB, knee), Rejzohn Wright (CB, hip), Bryan Bresee (DT, knee – acl – surgery); suspended: Brock Rechsteiner (WR, suspension).