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Doctors Without Borders leads the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize market at 13%, just ahead of Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms at 11%, on the prediction exchange Kalshi on September 24. The Peace Prize is announced on Friday, October 9, the day after the Nobel Prize in Literature on Thursday, October 8.
The Nobel Foundation published the full schedule on February 2, and it runs over eight days. Last year’s winners were László Krasznahorkai for literature and Maria Corina Machado for peace.
The 2026 announcement dates
| Prize | Day | Time (CEST) |
|---|---|---|
| Physiology or Medicine | Monday, October 5 | 11:30 at the earliest |
| Physics | Tuesday, October 6 | 11:45 at the earliest |
| Chemistry | Wednesday, October 7 | 11:45 at the earliest |
| Literature | Thursday, October 8 | 13:00 at the earliest |
| Peace | Friday, October 9 | 11:00 |
| Economic Sciences | Monday, October 12 | 11:45 at the earliest |
CEST is six hours ahead of US Eastern time, so the literature prize comes no earlier than 7:00 a.m. ET and the peace prize at 5:00 a.m. ET. Every announcement is streamed live on the Nobel Prize’s own channels. The Swedish Academy names the literature laureate in Stockholm. The Norwegian Nobel Committee names the peace laureate in Oslo, and it is the only one of the six given a fixed time rather than an earliest one.
The 2026 Peace Prize market
| Candidate | Last trade | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| Doctors Without Borders | 13 cents | 13% |
| Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms | 11 cents | 11% |
| Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine | 10 cents | 10% |
| Save the Children | 9 cents | 9% |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 9 cents | 9% |
| Mark Carney | 6.3 cents | 6.3% |
These are the last traded prices on Kalshi’s “Nobel Peace Prize winner” contracts, read at 07:04 UTC on September 24, 2026. Each contract settles on whether that candidate wins the 2026 prize, and it pays $1 if it does, so a price of 13 cents is a 13% chance. In American odds, 13% is about +669. The market lists 24 names, and the busiest by volume is Donald Trump at 2 cents.
The leader at 13% means the market gives the field 87%. A futures bet like this is only worth making when you rate a candidate’s chance higher than its price, and on a prize whose nominations stay sealed for 50 years, that is a hard call to make. The literature market on the same exchange is thin: its ten names had traded between 5 and 1,106 contracts each, none in the day before, so we do not quote it.
To turn a sportsbook price into the same kind of figure, divide 100 by the price plus 100 for a plus price: +400 needs a 20% chance to pay back the stake, and +1200 needs 7.7%. For a minus price, divide the price by the price plus 100, so -200 needs 66.7%.
The Peace Prize field for 2026
The Norwegian Nobel Institute registered 287 candidates for the 2026 Peace Prize: 208 people and 79 organizations. That is down from 338 for 2025, and the record is 376, in 2016.
The committee does not publish its list. Nominations stay sealed for 50 years, and the Nobel Institute says any name in the pre-announcement talk is either guesswork or was put out by whoever made the nomination. So any price on a Peace Prize name rests on a list nobody outside the committee has seen. Nominations for 2026 closed on January 31, and the committee usually makes its choice at its last meeting before the announcement.
The five committee members are appointed by Norway’s parliament, the Storting. Organizations can win: the International Committee of the Red Cross has won three times, in 1917, 1944 and 1963.
Recent Nobel Peace Prize winners
| Year | Laureate |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Maria Corina Machado |
| 2024 | Nihon Hidankyo |
| 2023 | Narges Mohammadi |
| 2022 | Ales Bialiatski, Memorial and Center for Civil Liberties |
| 2021 | Maria Ressa and Dmitry Muratov |
| 2020 | World Food Programme |
Organizations were among the laureates in three of the last six years, and two of the six prizes were shared. The prize has been awarded 106 times, to 143 laureates, since 1901.
Recent Nobel Prize in Literature winners
| Year | Laureate |
|---|---|
| 2025 | László Krasznahorkai |
| 2024 | Han Kang |
| 2023 | Jon Fosse |
| 2022 | Annie Ernaux |
| 2021 | Abdulrazak Gurnah |
| 2020 | Louise Glück |
The literature prize has been awarded 118 times to 122 laureates between 1901 and 2025. Every one of the last six went to a single writer, and the Swedish Academy gives its reason in one sentence: for Krasznahorkai, an oeuvre that “reaffirms the power of art” in the midst of apocalyptic terror.
The other 2025 laureates
The three science prizes and economics are rarely priced by sportsbooks, but they are announced in the same week. For the record:
- Physiology or Medicine: Mary E. Brunkow, Fred Ramsdell and Shimon Sakaguchi, for discoveries about peripheral immune tolerance
- Physics: John Clarke, Michel H. Devoret and John M. Martinis, for macroscopic quantum tunneling and energy quantization in an electric circuit
- Chemistry: Susumu Kitagawa, Richard Robson and Omar M. Yaghi, for metal-organic frameworks
- Economic Sciences: Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt, for work on sustained growth through technological progress
The laureates receive their medals and prize money on December 10, Nobel Day, in Stockholm and Oslo. Sportsbooks that post novelty markets like these are compared in our sportsbook reviews. The 2026 laureates will be listed here once they are announced, starting October 5.
