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My number is Chicago by 6.4 and the price is Chicago -6.5. No bet on either side.
The line opened at Chicago -5.5 and is -6.5 at -102 at DraftKings, read at 23:04 UTC on 21 September. When this page first went up that afternoon there was no line, and it said Chicago was a bet at -5 or shorter. DraftKings never offered that.
The number
My figure compares like with like. Neither team has a winning record, so I take Chicago’s home games against losing teams and Toronto’s road games against losing teams. Half the difference between the two average margins is the number.
Chicago is 7-2 in those nine home games and wins them by 8.7 points on average. Toronto is 4-4 in its eight road games and loses them by 4.1. Half the difference is Chicago by 6.4.
I play a side when my number and the price are at least a point apart. At -6.5 the gap is a tenth of a point.
The moneyline, Chicago -230 and Toronto +190, prices the Sky to win 66.9% of the time once the bookmaker’s margin is out. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Chicago 71.1%.
Both teams are losing
Neither side arrives in form. Chicago has lost five in a row and is 3-7 over its last ten, losing by 12.0 a game. Toronto has lost six in a row and is 1-9 over its last ten, losing by 14.9.
Chicago’s last two were heavy: 110-80 at home to Washington on 17 September, and 106-81 in Atlanta on Saturday. Toronto lost 106-69 at home to New York on Sunday.
Toronto has won both meetings
This is the fact that argues hardest against Chicago. Toronto won 111-104 in Chicago on 27 May and 85-68 at home on 7 June.
Two games, both in the first five weeks of the season, prove little on their own, and Chicago’s home record against losing teams is nine games of evidence against two. I read the head-to-head as a warning, and it is one reason not to lay more than the number.
Chicago at home, Toronto on the road
The Sky are 10-11 at home and lose there by 1.2 a game. The Tempo are 4-16 on the road, scoring 87.5 and allowing 97.0: a 9.5-point average loss. Set against Chicago’s 1.2-point average loss at home, that is a gap of 8.3 points.
Chicago has had two days off since Saturday. Toronto has had one since Sunday.
The total
The total is 179.5, where it opened, over -110 and under -110. Chicago’s games have a median total of 181 this season and Toronto’s 179. Over the last ten, Chicago’s have averaged 173.0 and Toronto’s 174.7.
The season medians sit on the line and the recent averages sit 4.8 and 6.5 points under it. That leans under, and it is not a bet.
Pick: no bet
Pick: none. My number is Chicago by 6.4 against a line of Chicago -6.5 at DraftKings, read 21 September 2026 at 23:04 UTC.
What would change it: Chicago at -5 or shorter is a bet on the Sky; Toronto at +7.5 or more is a bet on the Tempo. The number rests on nine and eight games, and Toronto’s 4-4 includes a 32-point loss.
Toronto Tempo at Chicago Sky, Tuesday 22 September 2026, 8:00 PM ET, Wintrust Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 21 September 2026, 23:04 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 21 September 2026, each final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game. ESPN matchup predictor read 21 September 2026. Every WNBA game: WNBA predictions.
