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Our number leans to the Blues by 2.6 points. No bet.
The St. Louis Blues are -115 and the Chicago Blackhawks -105 at DraftKings, which is a 51.1% chance for the Blues once the margin is removed. Our number gives the Blues 53.7%. The gap is 2.6 points. A side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more, so this is a pass.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Blackhawks went 14-19-8 at home, meaning 14 wins, 19 regulation losses and 8 losses after regulation. That is a 34.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Blues went 17-19-5 on the road and lost 24 of 41, a 58.5% road loss rate. The average is 46.3% for the Blackhawks, 53.7% for the Blues.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. Removed from -115 and -105, it leaves the Blues at 51.1% and the Blackhawks at 48.9%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Blackhawks and 41 road games for the Blues. The Blackhawks play three road games before this one, from 29 September to 3 October, and the Blues play at Dallas on 2 October and at Colorado on 3 October. None of those games is in these figures.
The Blackhawks at home, the Blues on the road
The Blackhawks at home scored 2.61 goals a game and allowed 3.29. The Blues on the road scored 2.80 and allowed 3.22. Both sides were outscored in these games, the Blackhawks by more.
Each half is a losing record. The Blackhawks lost 27 of 41 at home. The Blues lost 24 of 41 on the road, five of them after regulation. Those three fewer losses are what move our number 3.7 points off even.
The Blues finished 37-33-12 with 86 points and were outscored by 0.33 goals a game. The Blackhawks finished 29-39-14 with 72 points, outscored by 0.75 a game. Neither team reached the playoffs.
The teams met four times in 2025-26 and split them, each winning once on the other’s ice. The Blackhawks won 8-3 at St. Louis on 16 October and 7-3 at home on 8 January. The Blues won 3-2 at home on 13 December and 5-3 at Chicago on 11 April. Four games are a small sample, and the method does not use them.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 2.6 points against a 5-point threshold.
Both prices opened at -110, a gap of 3.7 points. Read on 24 September 2026 at 04:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, the Blues were -115 and the Blackhawks -105.
What changes it
A longer price on either side. The Blues become a bet at +106 or longer, whatever the Blackhawks are priced at. The Blackhawks become a bet at +143 or longer.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 6 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over +100 and under -120. The Blackhawks’ games went over 5.5 in 42 of 82 and the Blues’ in 39 of 82. The Blackhawks’ home games averaged 5.90 goals, the Blues’ road games 6.02.
The two over rates, 51.2% and 47.6%, average 49.4%. The over at +100 is priced at 47.8% with the margin removed, 1.6 points away. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Blues -1.5 at +210 and the Blackhawks +1.5 at -258. The Blues won by two goals or more in 19 of 82 games. The Blackhawks lost by two or more in 31 of 82. Averaged, Blues -1.5 lands 30.5% of the time against 30.9% priced. Pass on the puck line.
Blues at Blackhawks, Tuesday 6 October, 8:00 PM ET, United Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
