MLB Cy Young Odds and Predictions 2026: September Picks

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MLB Cy Young Odds and Predictions have become increasingly concentrated entering the final month of the regular season. Cam Schlittler remains the American League favorite around -175, but Dylan Cease is still close enough statistically to challenge at approximately +140. In the National League, Jacob Misiorowski has separated himself dramatically and is now priced between roughly -1200 and -1400.

Schlittler is the ScoresAndStats AL Cy Young prediction after reaching September with a 12-6 record, 2.09 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 201 strikeouts across 163 2/3 innings. Cease remains the better betting value because he owns 217 strikeouts with a 2.33 ERA and can still change the race with several dominant September starts.

Misiorowski is the strongest award prediction in either league. The Brewers ace is 14-5 with an MLB-best 1.73 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 222 strikeouts through 151 innings. Chris Sale is the most credible NL challenger, but the current gap makes Misiorowski a far stronger prediction than a new bet at four-figure minus odds.

Quick Cy Young Betting Takeaways

• AL Cy Young favorite: Cam Schlittler around -175.
• AL Cy Young prediction: Cam Schlittler.
• Best AL value: Dylan Cease around +140.
• Best AL longshot: Drew Rasmussen at +3500 or better.
• NL Cy Young favorite: Jacob Misiorowski around -1200 to -1400.
• NL Cy Young prediction: Jacob Misiorowski.
• Best NL challenger: Chris Sale around +700 to +750.
• Best NL workload alternative: Cristopher Sánchez at +2000 or better.
• Best September strategy: Avoid chasing Misiorowski at extreme minus money while preserving earlier -450 tickets.

How Cy Young Voting Works

The Baseball Writers’ Association of America selects one Cy Young Award winner in each league. Thirty writers vote in the American League race and another 30 vote in the National League.

Each voter ranks five pitchers. A first-place vote is worth seven points, second place receives four, third place receives three, fourth place receives two and fifth place receives one.

Ballots are submitted before postseason games begin. October performance therefore cannot change the award, making every remaining September start important for Schlittler, Cease, Misiorowski, Sale and the other contenders.

There is no single statistic that determines the winner. ERA, innings, strikeouts, WHIP, command, overall run prevention and advanced metrics all contribute to the discussion. Wins can strengthen a résumé but have become less decisive than they were historically.

The complete voting system is available through the official BBWAA voting FAQ.

AL MLB Cy Young Odds and Predictions 2026

The American League remains the more competitive of the two Cy Young races. Schlittler is the favorite across major sportsbooks, but Cease remains close enough statistically that the market has not moved anywhere near the extreme price attached to Misiorowski in the NL.

Schlittler around -175 carries an implied break-even probability of approximately 63.6 percent before sportsbook margin. Cease at +140 requires only approximately 41.7 percent.

That difference is why Schlittler can remain the most likely winner while Cease remains the better price-based wager.

AL Cy Young Statistics Comparison

Schlittler owns the stronger overall run-prevention résumé. Cease counters with the higher strikeout total and a historically elite strikeout rate.

Schlittler owns a 0.24 ERA advantage over Cease and has thrown 13 1/3 more innings. His WHIP is also lower, while his 5.9 WAR slightly exceeds Cease’s approximately 5.7.

Cease has the more dominant strikeout profile. His 217 strikeouts have come in only 150 1/3 innings, producing approximately 13 strikeouts per nine innings.

That contrast should define the AL race during September: Schlittler has the stronger complete résumé, while Cease owns the category most capable of generating dramatic single-start headlines.

Cam Schlittler Cy Young Prediction

Cam Schlittler remains the ScoresAndStats prediction to win the 2026 American League Cy Young Award.

The Yankees right-hander enters September 12-6 with a 2.09 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 201 strikeouts through 163 2/3 innings. He has already surpassed 200 strikeouts while maintaining one of the lowest ERAs among qualified starters.

Schlittler’s strongest advantage is completeness. He has more innings than Cease, fewer walks, a lower ERA and a lower WHIP while still generating elite strikeout volume.

His command has occasionally become volatile. Schlittler walked five batters during both his August 3 start against St. Louis and his August 28 start against Boston. Those outings demonstrate the main remaining vulnerability.

He nevertheless finished August with a 2.33 ERA across five starts and allowed only three earned runs over his final four appearances of the month.

The Yankees also remain in a competitive postseason race, reducing any reason to limit one of their best starters unnecessarily during September.

The price is less appealing than the prediction. At approximately -175, most of Schlittler’s statistical advantage has already been incorporated into the market.

A move toward -150 would create a more attractive entry. At -200 or shorter, Cease’s plus-money price becomes increasingly difficult to ignore.

ScoresAndStats AL Cy Young Prediction: Cam Schlittler.

Betting Decision: Prefer -150 or better rather than chasing -175.

Dylan Cease Cy Young Value at +140

Dylan Cease remains the strongest value bet in either Cy Young race because his statistical path to overtaking Schlittler is still realistic while sportsbooks continue offering plus money.

Cease enters September 9-5 with a 2.33 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 217 strikeouts through 150 1/3 innings.

His 13.0 strikeouts per nine innings are the defining statistic. Cease has struck out 16 more hitters than Schlittler despite throwing more than 13 fewer innings.

Cease has also remained highly effective since returning from the hamstring strain that cost him two starts earlier this season. His August included 43 strikeouts in 31 innings and only seven earned runs.

The most important weakness is command. Cease has issued 65 walks compared with 42 for Schlittler. That difference explains much of the WHIP gap and makes Cease more vulnerable to a poor outing when hitters stop chasing his breaking pitches.

His innings deficit also matters. Voters may prefer the pitcher who accumulated more total outs if Schlittler and Cease finish with similar rate statistics.

The race can still flip. If Cease finishes near a 2.20 ERA while leading the AL in strikeouts and Schlittler moves closer to 2.30 or 2.40, the current plus-money underdog could become the favorite before voting.

At +140, Cease needs to win approximately 41.7 percent of the time before sportsbook margin. That is a reasonable threshold for a pitcher this close to the favorite statistically.

Our Best Overall Cy Young Value Pick: Dylan Cease at +140 or better.

AL Cy Young Longshots

Drew Rasmussen +3500 to +4000

Drew Rasmussen remains the best true AL longshot. He is 14-5 with a 2.95 ERA and an excellent 0.93 WHIP across 146 1/3 innings for the first-place Rays.

His problem is strikeout separation. Rasmussen has 149 strikeouts, more than 50 fewer than Schlittler and nearly 70 behind Cease.

That means he needs both favorites to struggle while lowering his own ERA closer to 2.60 or 2.70.

The 35-1 to 40-1 price is long enough for a small speculative position, but this is not a race in which bettors should expect a third candidate to win without significant help.

Our Best AL Longshot: Drew Rasmussen at +3500 or better.

Gavin Williams +6000 to +7000

Gavin Williams is interesting almost entirely because of his strikeout total. The Guardians right-hander has 217 strikeouts, matching Cease near the top of the American League.

Williams also delivered one of his best starts of the season on September 1, striking out 13 over seven innings while allowing no earned runs against Toronto.

His 3.81 ERA remains the disqualifying statistic. Even several dominant September starts would require both Schlittler and Cease to move backward substantially.

Williams is therefore more attractive in the MLB strikeout race than in the Cy Young market.

NL MLB Cy Young Odds and Predictions 2026

The National League market has become extremely one-sided. Misiorowski is now between approximately -1200 and -1400 across major sportsbooks, while Sale remains the leading conventional challenger near +700 to +750.

A -1200 price implies approximately a 92.3 percent break-even probability before sportsbook margin. At -1400, that rises to approximately 93.3 percent.

The market is effectively asking whether Misiorowski can remain healthy and avoid a disastrous September. His existing statistical advantages are already large enough that ordinary regression would probably not cost him the award.

NL Cy Young Statistics Comparison

Misiorowski leads the primary candidates in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts. Sale is closest in run prevention, while Sánchez owns the largest workload and most wins among the primary challengers.

Misiorowski’s advantage is difficult to attack from any direction. He leads Sale by 0.33 in ERA and 45 strikeouts while also owning the lower WHIP and one additional win.

Sánchez has thrown 24 1/3 more innings than Misiorowski and owns 16 victories, but the ERA and WHIP gaps remain substantial. Yamamoto’s 0.89 WHIP is outstanding, yet he trails the favorite by nearly 70 strikeouts.

Jacob Misiorowski Cy Young Prediction

Jacob Misiorowski remains the strongest Cy Young prediction in baseball.

The Milwaukee right-hander enters September 14-5 with a 1.73 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 222 strikeouts through 151 innings. He leads Major League Baseball in strikeouts while also sitting atop the ERA leaderboard.

His strikeout rate is extraordinary. Misiorowski has averaged more than 13 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing fewer than five hits per nine.

The most impressive part of his résumé is that the dominance continued even after Milwaukee began managing his workload more carefully around the All-Star break.

Misiorowski dealt with arm fatigue in July and received additional rest, but he returned to make five August starts. He went 3-1 with a 2.32 ERA and 37 strikeouts across 31 innings during that stretch.

He has also already exceeded the approximately 141 innings he threw across all levels in 2025. That removes some concern that voters will view the season as too abbreviated.

Milwaukee’s postseason position may still encourage extra rest in September, but Misiorowski no longer needs to reach 200 innings to build a complete award résumé. The combination of 150-plus innings, a sub-1.80 ERA and an MLB-leading strikeout total is already exceptional.

The betting price is the only reason not to recommend a new position. At -1200 to -1400, bettors risk between $1,200 and $1,400 to win $100.

ScoresAndStats NL Cy Young Prediction: Jacob Misiorowski.

Betting Decision: Hold earlier tickets. Do not chase -1200 to -1400.

Chris Sale Cy Young Odds at +700

Chris Sale remains the most credible pitcher capable of taking advantage if Misiorowski falters.

The veteran left-hander is 13-9 with a 2.06 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 177 strikeouts through 144 innings.

Sale strengthened his case dramatically in late August by throwing a complete-game shutout against the Dodgers. He struck out 11 without issuing a walk and generated his first 100 mph pitch since 2018.

His 2.06 ERA would be the best full-season mark of his career as a starting pitcher if maintained through September.

The problem is that an exceptional Sale season is still clearly behind Misiorowski in the current comparison. Sale trails by 45 strikeouts, 0.33 in ERA and 0.25 in WHIP.

At +700 to +750, the market requires approximately a 12 to 12.5 percent chance of winning. That is difficult to justify unless bettors assign meaningful probability to Misiorowski missing starts or suffering a substantial late collapse.

Sale remains the best challenger, but the preferred entry has moved higher as Misiorowski’s lead has expanded.

Our Preferred Chris Sale Price: +1000 or better.

Cristopher Sánchez Cy Young Odds

Cristopher Sánchez has the strongest workload argument among the primary NL contenders.

The Phillies left-hander is 16-4 with a 2.52 ERA and 202 strikeouts through 175 1/3 innings. He leads the main candidates in both wins and innings.

That workload could become important if Milwaukee gives Misiorowski multiple extended-rest periods during September.

The challenge is rate performance. Sánchez’s 2.52 ERA is nearly eight-tenths of a run higher than Misiorowski’s 1.73 mark, while his 1.19 WHIP is significantly worse.

Sánchez therefore needs more than simply reaching 200 innings. He needs an elite final month while Misiorowski and Sale both move backward.

At approximately +2000 to +2500, the price is more interesting than Sale’s, but the path is substantially narrower.

ScoresAndStats View: Sánchez is worth monitoring at +2500 or better as a workload-based longshot.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Cy Young Longshot

Yoshinobu Yamamoto provides an elite-ratio longshot for bettors searching beyond the top three.

Yamamoto is 12-8 with a 2.56 ERA and an outstanding 0.89 WHIP through 158 innings. His WHIP trails only Misiorowski among this group.

The problem is strikeout volume. Yamamoto has 153 strikeouts compared with 222 for Misiorowski, 202 for Sánchez and 177 for Sale.

That makes his path dependent on extraordinary run prevention. Yamamoto likely needs to finish near or below a 2.25 ERA while the current favorite struggles.

Prices between approximately +4500 and +6600 provide enough payout for a small speculative position, but this remains a very unlikely comeback.

Our Best NL Deep Longshot: Yoshinobu Yamamoto at +5000 or better.

September Workload and Injury Factors

Workload is particularly important in the Cy Young market because every missed start removes innings, strikeouts and an opportunity to strengthen rate statistics.

Misiorowski remains the most important workload case. Milwaukee deliberately provided additional rest after he experienced arm fatigue in July, and the Brewers have every incentive to prioritize October health once their playoff position becomes secure.

The situation is less threatening to his award résumé than it was in July. Misiorowski has now reached 151 innings, surpassed his previous career high and accumulated enough strikeouts to lead the majors.

Cease also lost innings earlier in the year because of a hamstring injury. He missed only two starts, but that interruption explains part of Schlittler’s current workload advantage.

Cy Young Odds Movement Since August

The past month strengthened both favorites, but the market adjustment has been far larger in the National League.

Schlittler’s move from -130 to approximately -175 reflects incremental strengthening rather than complete separation. Cease actually lengthened slightly despite continuing to pitch well because Schlittler maintained the ERA and workload advantages.

Misiorowski experienced the major move. His price has gone from -450 to four-figure minus money as he maintained a sub-1.75 ERA and pushed beyond 220 strikeouts.

Sánchez moved sharply in the opposite direction. His workload remains impressive, but the market has become increasingly skeptical that innings and wins can overcome Misiorowski’s much stronger rate statistics.

Previous Cy Young Picks Updated

The August ScoresAndStats update selected Schlittler and Misiorowski as the final Cy Young predictions, with Cease as the best AL value and Sale as the preferred NL alternative.

Both winner predictions remain intact.

The best existing ticket is Misiorowski at -450. A new bettor now has to risk roughly three times as much money for the same $100 potential profit.

Schlittler -130 also represents a better position than today’s market, although the movement has been much smaller.

Cease remains an attractive new wager despite moving from +110 toward +140 because his price became longer without his statistical path disappearing.

Recent MLB Cy Young Winners

Recent Cy Young results demonstrate how voters can reward different types of dominant seasons. Some winners combined massive workloads with elite ratios, while others overwhelmed the competition through strikeouts and run prevention.

Schlittler is attempting to become the first Yankees pitcher since Gerrit Cole in 2023 to win the AL award. Cease would capture his first Cy Young after previously finishing second in 2022 and fourth in 2024.

Misiorowski would become the first Brewers pitcher since Corbin Burnes in 2021 to win the NL award. Sale already owns the 2024 trophy and remains the only primary 2026 contender with a previous Cy Young victory.

Final MLB Cy Young Odds and Predictions

The American League remains close enough to separate the winner prediction from the best betting value. Schlittler has the strongest overall résumé, but Cease offers the more attractive payout for a pitcher capable of changing the race during September.

The National League requires a different strategy. Misiorowski leads nearly every major pitching category relevant to the award and has built enough innings that workload concerns are much less significant than they were during the summer.

Sale remains the correct challenger, but +700 is no longer especially attractive when Misiorowski is this far ahead. A better approach is to wait for +1000 or longer or avoid adding a new NL position entirely.

Cease receives the best overall value designation because the AL race still has a plausible path to changing hands. One poor Schlittler start combined with a dominant double-digit strikeout performance from Cease can meaningfully change both the statistics and the odds.

Misiorowski is much closer to requiring a complete collapse. A normal September should be enough for him to win comfortably, which makes him the strongest prediction but a poor new wager at current prices.

Sale and Sánchez become interesting primarily if Misiorowski’s workload changes unexpectedly. Without that development, the Brewers ace owns too much separation.

The strikeout component of these races is covered separately in the ScoresAndStats MLB strikeout leader odds and predictions. Daily starting-pitcher selections are available through the MLB picks page.

Our 2026 AL Cy Young Prediction: Cam Schlittler.

Our 2026 NL Cy Young Prediction: Jacob Misiorowski.

Our Best Overall Cy Young Value: Dylan Cease at +140 or better.

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