MLB Cy Young Odds and Predictions 2026: Schlittler and Misiorowski Lead

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MLB Cy Young Odds and Predictions feature a close two-pitcher race in the American League and a dominant favorite in the National League. Cam Schlittler is the AL favorite near -130, with Dylan Cease close behind at approximately +110. Jacob Misiorowski controls the NL market at around -450 after building significant advantages in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.

Schlittler remains our AL Cy Young prediction because he leads qualified American League starters with a 2.26 ERA while combining 171 strikeouts with 139 2/3 innings. Cease offers the better betting value because his strikeout rate and recent form give him a realistic opportunity to overtake the favorite.

Misiorowski is the strongest winner prediction in either league. The Milwaukee Brewers right-hander is 11-5 with a 1.63 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and an MLB-leading 195 strikeouts. Chris Sale provides the preferred NL alternative, while Chase Burns is the most attractive longer-priced contender.

MLB Cy Young Odds and Predictions Update

The latest MLB Cy Young Odds and Predictions show Schlittler moving from a small plus-money favorite to approximately -130. Cease remains within striking distance at +110, but every other AL candidate is priced at +2200 or longer.

The National League market has become even more concentrated. Misiorowski has shortened to approximately -450, implying that the market views him as an overwhelming favorite with nearly two months remaining.

Odds last checked: August 6, 2026. The latest widely available prices were posted August 4. Futures prices and availability can change.

The strongest prediction and the best wager are not always the same pitcher. Schlittler has the most complete AL résumé, but Cease offers a larger payout in a race that remains close statistically.

Misiorowski is the most likely winner, but a -450 price requires bettors to risk $450 to win $100. Sale, Cristopher Sánchez and Chase Burns offer larger returns, although each needs the favorite to lose statistical separation.

Daily starting-pitcher matchups, moneylines and totals can be compared through the ScoresAndStats MLB odds page.

How Cy Young Voting Works

The Baseball Writers’ Association of America selects one Cy Young Award winner in each league. Thirty writers vote in the American League race and another 30 vote in the National League race.

Each voter ranks five pitchers. First place is worth seven points, second place receives four, third place receives three, fourth place receives two and fifth place receives one.

Ballots are submitted before the postseason begins. October performance does not influence the award, making every remaining regular-season start important for the leading candidates.

ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, innings, command and overall run prevention remain central to the discussion. Wins can strengthen a résumé but do not automatically determine which pitcher produced the best season.

The full ballot structure is available through the official BBWAA voting FAQ.

AL Cy Young Odds 2026

The AL Cy Young Odds have developed into a two-pitcher market. Schlittler is favored near -130, while Cease remains available at approximately +110. Drew Rasmussen is the only other candidate shorter than +4000.

The large pricing gap after the top two reflects how difficult it will be for another pitcher to enter the race. Rasmussen, Gray, Gilbert and Williams need dominant closing stretches while both Schlittler and Cease move backward.

AL Cy Young Stats Comparison

Schlittler leads the AL in ERA and owns the strongest combination of workload and baserunner prevention. Cease has the better strikeout rate and has been especially dominant since returning from a hamstring injury.

Schlittler owns a workload advantage of more than 20 innings over Cease while maintaining the lower ERA and WHIP. Cease has three more strikeouts despite throwing significantly fewer innings, creating the most important argument in favor of the challenger.

Williams leads the AL in strikeouts, but his 3.56 ERA leaves too much ground to make up. Rasmussen and Messick have stronger run-prevention numbers, but neither matches the complete profile of the top two.

Cam Schlittler Cy Young Prediction

Schlittler remains our prediction to win the American League Cy Young Award. The New York Yankees right-hander is 10-6 with a league-leading 2.26 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 171 strikeouts through 139 2/3 innings.

His award case begins with complete-season value. Schlittler has made 24 starts and worked nearly 20 more innings than Cease, allowing him to accumulate more outs while maintaining elite rate statistics.

Schlittler has issued only 31 walks. That command has helped him limit damaging innings and maintain a significant WHIP advantage over Cease.

The primary concern is recent volatility. Schlittler allowed four earned runs and five walks in only three innings during his most recent start after delivering two excellent performances. One additional difficult outing could move Cease back to favorite status.

The -130 price is reasonable but no longer represents obvious value. Bettors are paying for the current statistical lead rather than identifying an overlooked breakout candidate.

Current results, schedules and matchup information are available through the New York Yankees team page.

ScoresAndStats AL Cy Young Prediction: Cam Schlittler at -130 or better.

Primary Risk: Cease can erase the market gap quickly because of his superior strikeout rate.

Dylan Cease Offers the Best AL Cy Young Value

Cease offers the best AL value at +110 or better. He is 7-5 with a 2.41 ERA and has recorded 174 strikeouts in only 119 1/3 innings.

The Toronto right-hander produced one of the best months by any pitcher in July, recording a 1.00 ERA with 46 strikeouts across 36 innings. That run moved him closer to Schlittler statistically and kept the market near a two-pitcher split.

Cease’s strikeout rate provides his clearest path. He has more strikeouts than Schlittler despite throwing over 20 fewer innings and can create substantial market movement with one double-digit strikeout performance.

The concern remains command. Cease has issued 51 walks, compared with 31 for Schlittler. His 1.08 WHIP is excellent considering his strikeout volume, but it remains clearly behind the favorite’s 0.95 mark.

Cease also missed time with a left hamstring strain earlier in the season. He has remained healthy since returning, but the lost starts created the workload deficit that now separates him from Schlittler.

Our Best AL Cy Young Value Pick: Dylan Cease at +110 or better.

Winning Path: Maintain a sub-2.50 ERA, continue leading Schlittler in strikeout rate and reduce the innings gap.

AL Cy Young Value and Longshots

Rasmussen is the preferred AL longshot at +2200. He owns a sub-3.00 ERA and one of the best WHIPs in the league while pitching for a Tampa Bay team competing for the league’s top playoff seed.

The issue is statistical separation. Rasmussen trails Schlittler and Cease in strikeouts and does not own enough of an ERA advantage to overcome that deficit without help.

Williams leads the AL with 178 strikeouts, making his +4500 price interesting for bettors prioritizing dominance. His 3.56 ERA remains a major obstacle and would likely need to fall close to 3.00.

Messick offers the opposite profile. His 2.57 ERA is strong enough to attract attention, but 128 strikeouts leave him well behind the leaders in swing-and-miss production.

Gilbert, Gray and deGrom retain award-winning ceilings. Their current résumés require both a dominant finish and major regression from the two favorites.

Our Best AL Longshot: Drew Rasmussen at +2200 or better.

NL Cy Young Odds 2026

The NL Cy Young Odds are dominated by Misiorowski at approximately -450. Sale is the second choice near +700, followed by Sánchez at +850 and Wheeler at +1500.

The NL market requires a setback from Misiorowski before another pitcher can become a serious favorite. Sale, Sánchez, Wheeler and Burns remain close enough statistically to benefit if Milwaukee reduces the leader’s workload.

NL Cy Young Stats Comparison

Misiorowski leads the National League in the categories most likely to produce first-place votes. Sánchez owns the heaviest workload, Sale has the strongest veteran alternative profile and Burns carries the best win-loss record.

Misiorowski has 27 more strikeouts than Sánchez despite throwing nearly 18 fewer innings. He also owns an ERA advantage of almost a full run and a substantial WHIP lead over every primary challenger.

Sánchez has the best workload and win total, but his rate statistics remain too far behind. Sale is closer in ERA, while Wheeler owns the next-best WHIP but lacks enough innings to challenge without an extended closing run.

Jacob Misiorowski Cy Young Prediction

Misiorowski remains our prediction to win the National League Cy Young Award. He is 11-5 with a 1.63 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 195 strikeouts through 127 innings.

The Milwaukee right-hander is not leading through one category. He ranks first in ERA, WHIP, opponent batting average and strikeouts while maintaining enough workload to avoid becoming a limited-innings candidate.

Opponents are batting only .145 against Misiorowski. He has allowed 64 hits in 127 innings and continues to combine elite velocity with improved command.

His recent performance has strengthened the case. Misiorowski has recorded 64 strikeouts with a 2.25 ERA across his last seven starts, surviving several shorter appearances without losing his league leads.

The primary concern is workload management. Milwaukee is positioned for a deep postseason run and may use extra rest or shorter pitch counts to protect its 24-year-old ace.

Misiorowski has enough separation to survive reasonable restrictions. Multiple skipped starts would create a more serious opportunity for Sale or Sánchez.

Current schedules, results and team information are available through the Milwaukee Brewers team page.

ScoresAndStats NL Cy Young Prediction: Jacob Misiorowski.

Betting Decision: The most likely winner, but -450 is too short for a large new futures position.

Chris Sale Offers the Best NL Cy Young Value

Sale offers the best realistic NL alternative at +700 or better. The Atlanta left-hander is 12-6 with a 2.08 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 143 strikeouts through 117 innings.

Sale has already demonstrated that he can win this award, capturing the 2024 NL Cy Young. His current performance shows that the previous victory was not a one-season return to form.

His ERA is the closest to Misiorowski’s among the primary challengers. A dominant August could reduce the gap while giving voters a proven veteran alternative if Milwaukee limits the favorite.

The concern is workload and durability. Sale trails Sánchez by nearly 28 innings and Misiorowski by 10, leaving less room for a missed start during the final two months.

Sale also trails Misiorowski by 52 strikeouts. He cannot close that gap completely, so his path depends on maintaining elite run prevention while the favorite’s ERA rises.

Our Best NL Cy Young Value Pick: Chris Sale at +700 or better.

Winning Path: Finish near a 2.00 ERA, approach 175 innings and benefit from Misiorowski workload restrictions.

Other NL Cy Young Contenders

Cristopher Sánchez at +850

Sánchez owns the strongest workload case. He is 14-4 with a 2.61 ERA and 168 strikeouts through 144 2/3 innings.

The Philadelphia left-hander can approach or exceed 200 innings, a threshold no other primary contender is likely to reach comfortably. That volume could become important if Misiorowski finishes with a reduced September schedule.

The problem is the 1.20 WHIP and the significant ERA gap. Sánchez needs to dominate the final two months rather than simply maintain his current level.

Zack Wheeler at +1500

Wheeler owns a 2.53 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, but his season began late and he has completed only 103 innings. The Philadelphia right-hander must remain healthy and pitch deep into every remaining start.

The +1500 price is attractive relative to his run prevention. The workload makes him a secondary value position rather than the primary alternative to Misiorowski.

Chase Burns at +3500

Burns is the preferred NL longshot at +3500 or better. He is 13-1 with a 2.35 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 137 strikeouts through 118 2/3 innings.

The win-loss record gives Burns a traditional headline statistic, while his ERA remains competitive with Sale, Sánchez and Wheeler.

His challenge is closing the strikeout and innings gaps without receiving an unlimited workload. Cincinnati has reasons to protect the young right-hander after previous arm and groin concerns.

Our Best NL Longshot: Chase Burns at +3500 or better.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto at +3000

Yamamoto remains an intriguing deeper option because of his command, WHIP and role on a leading Dodgers team. He has worked at least six innings in five consecutive starts while consistently limiting baserunners.

The market gap remains substantial. Yamamoto needs a near-perfect closing stretch and weaker performances from several pitchers ahead of him.

Workload and Injury Risks

Workload can change a Cy Young race faster than one poor start. A pitcher who misses three rotation turns may lose approximately 18 innings and 20 or more strikeouts compared with a healthy contender.

Cease already carries a workload deficit because of the hamstring injury that placed him on the injured list in May. His recent form suggests the injury is no longer affecting performance, but the missed innings remain part of the award comparison.

Misiorowski and Burns are young pitchers on postseason-contending teams. Milwaukee and Cincinnati may use extra rest or reduced pitch counts to protect them during September.

Sale and Wheeler have longer injury histories. Both remain healthy and effective, but another interruption would make it almost impossible to catch Misiorowski.

How the Cy Young Market Has Changed

The preseason Cy Young markets were led by Tarik Skubal in the American League and Paul Skenes in the National League. Neither defending winner remains near the top of the current board.

Schlittler produced the largest AL rise. He opened around +4000 before becoming an odds-on favorite through consistent run prevention and a heavy workload.

Cease also improved significantly from his mid-board preseason position. His combination of strikeouts and dominant July results moved him into a near-even race.

Misiorowski created the largest overall shift. He began behind several established NL starters before shortening to -450 through an MLB-leading strikeout total and sub-1.70 ERA.

Skenes has moved to approximately +15000 after entering the season as a favorite. His 3.90 ERA and 9-9 record leave too much statistical ground to make up.

Previous Cy Young Picks

The previous ScoresAndStats update selected Schlittler and Misiorowski as the final winner predictions. Both remain favored, and each position has strengthened in the betting market.

Cease was the previous AL value selection. He has shortened from approximately +140 to +110 while reducing Schlittler’s statistical advantages in ERA and overall dominance.

Wheeler was previously identified as the best NL value near +900. His price has lengthened to approximately +1500 because Misiorowski increased the lead and Wheeler remains behind in innings.

Burns remains the preferred NL longshot, although his price has moved from around +2000 to +3500. The longer price reflects Misiorowski’s dominance rather than a collapse in Burns’ performance.

Recent MLB Cy Young Winners

Skubal won the American League award in 2024 and 2025. Skenes won the 2025 National League award one season after Sale captured the honor in 2024.

The recent winners demonstrate that there is no single required profile. Voters have rewarded heavy workloads, dominant strikeout seasons, elite ERA performances and pitchers on teams outside the strongest playoff positions.

Final MLB Cy Young Odds and Predictions

Schlittler remains our final American League prediction. His combination of a league-leading ERA, 0.95 WHIP, strong command and workload gives him the most complete résumé.

Cease is the better AL wager at the current prices. His strikeout rate and recent form give him almost the same winning upside while allowing bettors to remain on the plus-money side of the market.

Rasmussen is the preferred AL longshot at +2200. He needs help from both favorites, but his ERA, WHIP and team context provide a more credible path than the larger prices attached to most alternatives.

Misiorowski remains the final National League prediction. His lead in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and opponent batting average is too large to ignore.

Sale is the preferred NL value at +700. Sánchez owns the best workload case, while Burns offers the most attractive payout among pitchers with a realistic statistical résumé.

The broader strikeout race is covered in the updated ScoresAndStats MLB strikeout leader odds and predictions. Daily starting-pitcher selections are available through the MLB picks page.

The championship outlook for the leading candidates’ teams is available in the ScoresAndStats World Series odds and predictions.

ScoresAndStats AL Cy Young Pick: Cam Schlittler at -130 or better.

ScoresAndStats NL Cy Young Pick: Jacob Misiorowski.

Our Best Overall Value Pick: Dylan Cease at +110 or better.

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