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Washington should win by about 14, and the price already says 14.5. No bet on either side.
My number is Washington by 13.8. The line opened at Washington -13.5 and is -14.5 at -108 at DraftKings, read at 23:04 UTC on 21 September. When this page first went up that afternoon there was no line, and it said Washington was a bet at -12.5 or shorter. DraftKings never offered that.
The number
My figure compares like with like. Washington has a winning record, so I take Connecticut’s road games against winning teams. Connecticut has a losing record, so I take Washington’s home games against losing teams. Half the difference between the two average margins is the number.
The Sun are 1-10 in those eleven road games and lose them by 22.6 points on average. The Mystics are 8-2 in their ten home games against losing teams and win them by 5.0. Half the difference is Washington by 13.8.
I play a side when my number and the price are at least a point apart. At -14.5 the gap is 0.7 points, on Connecticut, and that is not enough to bet the Sun either.
The moneyline, Washington -1200 and Connecticut +750, prices the Mystics to win 88.7% of the time once the bookmaker’s margin is out. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Washington 83.8%.
Connecticut away from home
Connecticut is 10-32, last in the Eastern Conference. On the road the Sun are 3-18, scoring 77.3 and allowing 91.4: a 14.1-point average loss.
The last ten games are no better. Connecticut is 2-8 in that stretch and has lost by 15.2 a game, including 103-59 in Atlanta on 17 September. The Sun have lost five in a row.
Washington is not a big home side
This is why the number is not bigger. Washington is 13-7 at home but wins there by only 1.9 a game, and the season margin is 0.9 across 42 games. The Mystics are 10-11 against winning teams and lose those by 3.6.
What they do is beat the teams below them. Eight home wins in ten against losing teams, by 5.0. Against Connecticut this season they are 2-1: 88-81 and 92-84 wins, and a 68-57 loss in Connecticut on 26 June.
Form and rest
Washington has won two straight, 110-80 in Chicago on 17 September and 93-77 in Indiana on Sunday, and is 7-3 over the last ten.
Connecticut lost 101-89 at home to Minnesota on Sunday. Both teams have had Monday off.
The total
The total is 158.5, where it opened, over -110 and under -110. Washington games have a median total of 169 this season and Connecticut games 167, so both medians sit well over the line.
The last ten games say the same: Connecticut’s have averaged 168.6 points between the two teams and Washington’s 172.8. That is a lean to the over. The three meetings produced 169, 125 and 176, and one of them finished more than 33 points under the line, which is why a season median alone is not a bet.
Pick: no bet
Pick: none. My number is Washington by 13.8 against a line of Washington -14.5 at DraftKings, read 21 September 2026 at 23:04 UTC.
What would change it: Washington at -12.5 or shorter is a bet on the Mystics; Connecticut at +15 or more is a bet on the Sun. The sample under the number is eleven Connecticut games and ten Washington games, and the Sun’s 22.6-point average loss includes a 44-point defeat.
Connecticut Sun at Washington Mystics, Tuesday 22 September 2026, 7:30 PM ET, CareFirst Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 21 September 2026, 23:04 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 21 September 2026, each final checked against Nucleus. ESPN matchup predictor read 21 September 2026. Every WNBA game: WNBA predictions.
