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Our number has Army by 8.8. At -3, take Army.
Army is a 3-point favourite at Temple on DraftKings, the same number it opened at. Our number is Army by 8.8. The gap is 5.8 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Temple is 1-5 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 17.8 points a game across 6 games. Army is 4-2 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 0.3 a game across 6 games. The difference is 17.5 points. Half of it, rounded, is 8.8, in Army’s favour.
Six games a side is thin. Only one of the twelve is from 2026: Temple’s 27-9 home loss to Penn State on 12 September. Army has not played a road game this season.
Temple at home
The home sample carries the number. Temple’s five home losses to FBS teams came by 39 to Oklahoma, 31 to East Carolina, 24 to Tulane, 18 to Penn State and 1 to Navy. The one win was 27-21 over UTSA in 2025.
The Oklahoma game is the biggest single input. Take the 3-42 loss out and Temple’s home average is still a loss by 13.6 across 5 games, and the number would still have Army by more than 6. The side holds either way.
Army’s road games were close more often than not. It won 24-21 at Kansas State, 31-13 at UAB, 20-17 at Air Force and 27-24 at UTSA, and lost 28-6 at East Carolina and 24-17 at Tulane. Three of the six were decided by 3 points.
2026 so far
Temple is 1-2 and 0-2 against FBS teams. After a 38-14 win over Rhode Island, a team outside the FBS, it lost 27-9 to Penn State and then 49-48 at Toledo on 19 September. Against its two FBS opponents it has allowed 38.0 points a game.
Army is 1-1. It beat Bryant, a team outside the FBS, 59-3, and lost 28-24 at home to South Florida on 12 September. That is one FBS game, and one game proves little.
This is an American Conference game. Army is 0-1 in the conference; Temple has not played a conference game.
Last season
Army went 7-6 in 2025 and won by 2.2 points a game, finishing with a 41-16 win over UConn on 27 December at a neutral site. Temple went 5-7 and lost by 1.8 a game.
The two met on 8 November 2025 at Army. Army won 14-13.
The price
Army is -3 and was -3 at the open, read 24 September 2026 at 04:28 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. Both sides of the spread are priced at -110.
The moneyline has Army at -155 and Temple at +130, also unchanged from the open. With the margin removed, that prices Army to win 58.3% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Army at 53.6%.
Both of those make Army the likelier winner, narrowly. Ours has Army winning by 8.8, where the spread asks for 4, and that is the 5.8-point disagreement.
Pick: Army -3
Army -3 at -110. The gap is 5.8 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 12 games, split 6 and 6, and 11 of them are from 2025.
What changes it
A line move toward Army. At Army -5.5 the gap is 3.3 and the bet stands. At -6 it is 2.8, and the call becomes a pass.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 49.5 and is 47.5 now, over -118 and under -102, as read at DraftKings. That is a 2-point drop.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Temple’s games went over 47.5 in 10 of 13, and Army’s in 5 of 13. The two samples point opposite ways. Temple’s last game produced 97 points at Toledo; Army’s only FBS game this season produced 52.
Pass on the total at 47.5. The two samples cancel out.
Army at Temple, Friday 25 September, 4:00 PM ET, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:28 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23-24 September 2026. Neither team is ranked in the AP Poll, Week 4, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
