PGA Golf Picks This Week: 2026 WM Phoenix Open

The PGA Tour heads to the desert for one of the loudest stops on the schedule as the WM Phoenix Open returns to TPC Scottsdale. Known for firm fairways, aggressive pin positions, and the chaos of the Stadium Course, this event rewards elite ball striking, strong par-4 scoring, and players who can handle momentum swings without melting down. It’s not always the lowest score that wins here. It’s the golfer who keeps applying pressure while others ride the roller coaster.

If you’re betting golf this week, make sure you check out our Golf Picks hub and complete betting on golf guide for market breakdowns, betting strategies, and bankroll tips. The WM Open consistently offers value across outright markets, placement bets, group winners, and creative parlays if you’re willing to mix safety with upside instead of forcing longshots.

Below are the best PGA golf picks this week, with odds pulled from the top sports betting sites. Check back after the tournament for our full golf results recap.

PGA Golf Picks This Week

Check out our favorite PGA golf picks for this week, courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

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Golf Expert Picks For This Week

Let’s break down our top PGA Tour picks for this week:

Outright

• Scottie Scheffler (+225)
• Xander Schauffele (+1850)
• Cameron Young (+2400)
• Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)
• Si Woo Kim (+2700)
• Ben Griffin (+2900)
• Brooks Koepka (+3100)
• Sam Burnns (+3200)
• Maverick McNealy (+3300)

Scottie Scheffler is the clear favorite at the WM Phoenix Open, and honestly, nobody should be surprised. He’s the best tee-to-green player on the planet, he rarely plays himself out of tournaments, and TPC Scottsdale is exactly the kind of course where his ball striking can suffocate a field. If you told me Scheffler wins this event by two strokes, I wouldn’t blink. The issue is that his outright number (+225) is priced like the sportsbook is daring you to take it. Sure, you might cash, but you’re basically paying a premium price for something that still requires four days of clean golf, and golf is way too chaotic for odds that short to feel fun.

That’s where Ben Griffin (+2900) comes in as a much more interesting pivot. He’s not some random dart throw, either. Griffin has been steadily trending upward and has become one of those guys who keeps showing up on leaderboards without much warning. He finished T36 here last year and T28 the year before, which doesn’t scream “future champion,” but it does show he’s comfortable at Scottsdale and capable of putting together four solid rounds. More importantly, he’s improved since those starts. This is a different version of Griffin than the one who first started popping on TOUR.

His recent form backs that up. Griffin has been stacking strong results, including a win at the World Wide Technology Championship, plus top-20 finishes at both the Sony Open and The American Express. The consistency is what really stands out. He’s not just spiking one week and disappearing the next. He’s been living in contention territory for months, and that matters in outright betting because you’re not hunting perfection. You’re hunting someone who is consistently good enough to give himself a real chance late Sunday. Griffin’s stats also paint the picture of a complete player. He’s gaining strokes off the tee, he’s been positive on approach lately, and he’s excellent around the green, which is huge at a course like this where saving par keeps your momentum alive.

At +2900, Griffin is the type of outright bet that actually makes sense. You still get legitimate win equity, but you also get paid like you’re taking a risk, which is how golf outrights should feel. Scheffler might be the best golfer in the field by a mile, but betting him at +225 is basically betting the market’s opinion, not value.

Griffin gives you a far more profitable number with a player who has clearly leveled up, and if he gets the putter rolling for a couple of rounds, he’s absolutely capable of hanging with the big dogs. This is the kind of outright that won’t make you feel sick when you place it, and it’ll feel even better if he’s on the first page of the leaderboard heading into Sunday.

Bet: Ben Griffin to Win (+2900)

Top 10 Finish (Including Ties)

• Scottie Scheffler (-370)
• Xander Schauffele (+168)
• Cameron Young (+205)
• Hideki Matsuyama (+205)
• Si Woo Kim (+210)
• Ben Griffin (+225)
• Sam Burns (+250)
• Brooks Koepka (+305)

Brooks Koepka to finish top 10 at +305 is one of my favorite numbers on the board this week, and it starts with context. Yes, Ben Griffin at +225 for a top 10 is completely fair if you already like him to win outright. That math checks out. But Koepka gives you a different kind of value.

This is a player with elite win equity at this specific course, and you are getting paid like the market is still unsure what version of him is showing up. That hesitation is exactly where opportunity lives in golf betting.

Koepka being back on the PGA Tour after his LIV stint matters here, and not in a negative way. If anything, it feels like a reset. Last week at Torrey Pines was never the real test. Scottsdale is. Koepka gained over four strokes on approach while making the cut at the Farmers, which is quietly the most important data point coming into this week.

When his irons start behaving, the rest of his game usually follows. Torrey is not a great fit for him. TPC Scottsdale absolutely is. He loves the sightlines, he loves the greens, and he feeds off the atmosphere more than most players are willing to admit.

The course history is impossible to ignore. Koepka won this event in 2021, finished tied for third in 2022, and has made five straight cuts here with two wins and a third-place finish during that stretch. That is dominance, not noise. Scottsdale rewards confident ball striking and aggressive scoring, and Koepka has proven time and time again that he knows exactly when to push and when to stay patient here. Even if the putter is slightly below average, his off-the-tee and approach numbers give him a massive margin for error compared to most of this field.

At +305, this top-10 bet feels mispriced relative to his ceiling. You are not asking Koepka to win the tournament or even beat Scottie Scheffler head-to-head. You are asking him to be Brooks Koepka at one of his favorite stops on tour. With the irons trending in the right direction and his comfort level at Scottsdale as high as it gets, this is the kind of number you circle. Griffin’s top-10 price is fine. Koepka’s is better. If you want upside without getting reckless, Koepka to finish top 10 is the cleanest value play on the board this week.

Bet: Brooks Koepka (+305)

End of Round 1 Leader

• Scottie Scheffler (+1050)
• Xander Schauffele (+3100)
• Cameron Young (+3400)
• Hideki Matsuyama (+3700)
• Brooks Koepka (+3900)
• Si Woo Kim (+4000)
• Maverick McNealy (+4200)
• Sam Burns (+4300)
• Viktor Hovland (+4300)
• Ben Griffin (+4300)

Scottie Scheffler at +1050 to be the first-round leader is the kind of bet that just makes too much sense not to sprinkle. We all know he’s the favorite to win the WM Phoenix Open outright, and for good reason. He’s basically a walking tee-to-green cheat code. But that’s also exactly why his outright odds are so short. At around +225, you’re paying full price for four days of perfection, and even for Scheffler, golf doesn’t always cooperate like that. One cold putting round or one desert bounce into trouble and suddenly that “easy” outright ticket feels a lot shakier.

That’s why the first-round leader market is such a fun way to attack Scheffler this week. You still get the same elite ball striking advantage, but now you only need it to show up for 18 holes instead of 72. And the gap between his outright price and his Round 1 leader number is honestly kind of wild. +1050 is a huge jump compared to what the market is saying about his overall win probability, and it feels like the kind of mispricing bettors are supposed to pounce on.

The other big thing working in Scheffler’s favor is how strong of a starter he is. He finished first on TOUR last season in first-round scoring average, and that matters at TPC Scottsdale where early momentum can snowball quickly. This course rewards aggressive drivers, clean iron play, and players who can rack up birdies before conditions firm up. Scheffler checks all those boxes, and he’s been especially dominant off the tee, ranking in the 99th percentile. When he’s striping it like that, birdie chances pile up fast.

At the end of the day, this is the perfect “why not” bet. You’re still backing the best golfer in the world, but you’re doing it at a number that actually feels profitable. Scheffler absolutely has the ability to go wire-to-wire here, but instead of sweating out four rounds at a short price, you can take a sharp shot at +1050 and just root for one classic Scheffler heater on Thursday. If he comes out firing, this ticket is live immediately.

Bet: Scottie Scheffler Round 1 Leader (+1050)

To Win Group B

• Si Woo Kim (+270)
• Ben Griffin (+295)
• Maverick McNealy (+340)
• Viktor Hovland (+380)
• Rickie Fowler (+380)

Ben Griffin to win Group B (+295) is a really strong play, and I honestly like it even more than some of the placement markets this week. This group has talent, but it also has a ton of volatility, which is exactly what you want when you’re grabbing the best steady scorer at close to 3-to-1 odds.

Si Woo Kim is always dangerous tee-to-green, but he’s also the definition of “hold your breath every time he has a 6-footer.” McNealy can absolutely pop, but he tends to rely heavily on the putter and can disappear if the irons aren’t sharp. Hovland has the upside to win the whole tournament, but he’s also been inconsistent lately, and Scottsdale is not a place where you want to be scrambling all week. And Rickie Fowler? Nice player, but he’s been way too streaky to trust in a group market against this kind of competition.

Griffin is the cleanest profile in this pod because his game travels. He’s been piling up strong results over the past year, he’s gained strokes in all the right places, and he doesn’t need some miracle putting week to beat these guys over four rounds. He just needs to do what he’s been doing consistently, which is play solid tee-to-green golf, stay aggressive on scoring holes, and avoid the blow-up rounds that ruin group bets.

At +295, you’re getting a player who’s trending upward and playing with confidence, while the rest of this group comes with built-in “yeah but…” concerns. If you’re looking for a bet that feels sharp without getting cute, this is it.

Bet: Ben Griffin (+290)

Top 5 Finish Parlay

• Scottie Scheffler + Xander Schauffele (+650)
• Scottie Scheffler + Hideki Matsuyama (+850)
• Scottie Scheffler + Cameron Young (+850)
• Scottie Scheffler + Ben Griffin (+900)
• Xander Schauffele + Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)
• Si Woo Kim + Brooks Koepka (+4500)

Si Woo Kim + Brooks Koepka to both finish top 5 at +4500 is the kind of parlay that feels aggressive, but it’s not reckless. You’re basically betting on two guys who check completely different boxes, yet both profiles make a ton of sense at TPC Scottsdale. If you’re going to take a swing at a top-5 parlay, this is exactly the type of combo you want. One player is in elite current form, the other is returning to a course where he’s been a legitimate monster.

Let’s start with Kim, because the recent results are impossible to ignore. He’s been on a heater with finishes of T2 at the Farmers Insurance Open, T6 at The American Express, and T11 at the Sony Open, and he’s now made 10 straight cuts without finishing worse than T21. That is real consistency, not a lucky putting stretch. The stats back it up too. Kim is gaining 0.683 strokes off the tee and 0.611 strokes on approach over his last five tournaments, and those are the exact categories that matter most at Scottsdale. He’s not a bomber, but his accuracy keeps him in the fairway, and playing from the short grass here is a massive edge when you’re trying to attack pins.

Koepka is the perfect high-upside partner because Scottsdale is basically his playground. He won this event in 2021, followed it up with a T3 in 2022, and he’s made five straight cuts here while posting multiple elite finishes. This is a course where he clearly feels comfortable being aggressive, and that matters because top-5 bets require you to lean into birdies, not just survival golf. He also showed a very encouraging sign last week at Torrey Pines, gaining over four strokes on approach, which is huge. Torrey is not his ideal setup, but he still flashed the ball-striking you want to see before heading to a course he actually loves.

The reason this parlay works is that both guys have a realistic path to top-5 finishes without needing a miracle. Kim’s path is clean fairways, elite irons, and steady scoring. Koepka’s path is the classic “big-game Brooks” performance, where he gets locked in and suddenly looks like he’s playing a different sport than everyone else. The only real red flag is putting volatility. Kim’s putter has been slightly negative lately, and Koepka’s putting numbers have been rough. But Scottsdale is also the type of place where solid tee-to-green play gives you so many birdie looks that you can survive without being a god on the greens.

At +4500, you’re getting paid appropriately for the difficulty of landing two top-5s, but it’s not some hopeless lottery ticket either. Kim is playing like a top-10 machine right now, and Koepka’s course history screams “ceiling week incoming.” If you want one spicy bet on the card that actually has logic behind it, this is a really fun one.

Bet: Si Woo Kim + Brooks Koepka Top 5 Finish Parlay (+4500)