PGA Golf Picks This Week: 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge

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The PGA golf picks this week move to Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, for the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge. After a wild Texas swing and Wyndham Clark’s victory at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, the PGA Tour now shifts to a tighter, more demanding course where precision matters more than pure scoring volume.

Colonial is not a wide-open birdie track. It is a par-70 layout that rewards controlled driving, accurate approach play, smart scrambling, and patience when the scoring gets uncomfortable. That changes the way we build our PGA golf picks card this week.

Ludvig Aberg enters as the projected favorite, but this is not a tournament where bettors should blindly chase the shortest number. Akshay Bhatia, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley, Robert MacIntyre, Ben Griffin, and Sahith Theegala all bring realistic paths at better prices.

Below are the best golf bets this week across outright winner, Top 10 finish, Top 20 finish, group markets, and a Top 10 parlay idea. These are projected betting lines created for preview purposes, so always compare the latest prices before betting.

PGA Golf Picks This Week

Here is the quick betting card for the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge:

This week’s betting card is built around course fit. Colonial usually rewards players who keep the ball in position, hit quality mid-irons, and avoid careless bogeys. That is why this week’s golf picks lean toward complete players rather than pure bombers.

For a deeper tournament-specific breakdown, bettors can also read our Charles Schwab Challenge odds preview. That page gives more detail on the field, course profile, and outright market before building your final card.

Golf Expert Picks For This Week

These are the featured markets worth building around at Colonial. Bettors who want a broader strategy angle can also use our golf betting guide before locking in weekly PGA bets.

To Win Outright

• Ludvig Aberg (+1200)
• Akshay Bhatia (+1600)
• Justin Thomas (+1800)
• Hideki Matsuyama (+2000)
• Russell Henley (+2200)

Akshay Bhatia at +1600 is the outright play because his game fits what Colonial usually asks from contenders. He is accurate enough off the tee, strong enough with approach play, and creative enough around the greens to avoid the big mistake.

Aberg is the projected favorite, and that makes sense. He has the highest ceiling in the field and owns the kind of ball-striking profile that can win anywhere. The issue is price. At +1200, there is not enough separation between Aberg and the next tier to make him the automatic play.

Bhatia gives bettors a better combination of upside and payout. He does not need Colonial to turn into a birdie race. He can win with controlled aggression, smart course management, and a strong iron week.

Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama are also live, but both come with more volatility. Thomas has the championship pedigree, while Matsuyama has the elite short game and approach ceiling. Still, Bhatia is the cleaner number for this week’s golf picks card.

Bet: Akshay Bhatia (+1600)

Top 10 Finish

• Ludvig Aberg (+130)
• Akshay Bhatia (+175)
• Justin Thomas (+190)
• Russell Henley (+220)
• Ben Griffin (+275)

Russell Henley at +220 is the Top 10 play because Colonial suits his strengths. This is a course where accuracy, patience, and clean approach numbers matter more than overpowering the layout.

Henley is not always the most exciting outright ticket, but that is exactly why he makes sense in a placement market. He can stay inside the number without needing to win a shootout, and his profile is built for steady leaderboard pressure.

Aberg and Bhatia are both strong Top 10 options, but their prices are shorter. Thomas offers more name value than betting value, while Griffin is dangerous as the defending champion but may be priced a little too tightly because of last year’s win.

The Top 10 market is where Henley’s consistency matters. He does not need a perfect putting week to cash this ticket. He just needs four controlled rounds and enough birdie chances to stay near the first page.

Bet: Russell Henley (+220)

Top 20 Finish

• Ludvig Aberg (-175)
• Akshay Bhatia (-120)
• Justin Thomas (-110)
• Hideki Matsuyama (+100)
• Robert MacIntyre (+120)

Robert MacIntyre at +120 is the Top 20 pick because the number is still playable and the course setup does not require him to be perfect. He can grind, scramble, and stay competitive on a layout where avoiding mistakes matters.

MacIntyre is also a better placement-market option than outright play this week. His win equity is not as strong as Aberg, Bhatia, or Thomas, but his profile is steady enough to beat a Top 20 number if the putter cooperates.

Matsuyama at even money is tempting, but the better payout is MacIntyre. This is the kind of bet that fits Colonial: disciplined, patient, and less dependent on one explosive round.

If you are tracking weekly golf tournament results, placement markets often give bettors a smarter route than trying to find the outright winner every week.

Bet: Robert MacIntyre (+120)

To Win Group Top American

• Akshay Bhatia (+450)
• Justin Thomas (+500)
• Russell Henley (+650)
• Ben Griffin (+750)
• Sahith Theegala (+900)

Akshay Bhatia at +450 is the Top American pick because he gives bettors a clean way to back his upside without needing him to beat every international player in the field.

This market is more attractive than the outright because Bhatia only has to beat the American group. Thomas, Henley, Griffin, and Theegala are all dangerous, but none of them should scare bettors away from Bhatia at this price.

Thomas is the biggest threat because of his pedigree, while Henley is the floor play. Griffin’s defending champion angle is real, but repeating at Colonial is never easy. Theegala has upside, but his week-to-week volatility makes him harder to trust in this specific market.

Bhatia’s combination of form, precision, and scoring upside gives him the best balance of value and realistic path.

Bet: Akshay Bhatia (+450)

To Win Group Top International

• Ludvig Aberg (+275)
• Hideki Matsuyama (+450)
• Robert MacIntyre (+600)
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+900)

Robert MacIntyre at +600 is the Top International value play. Aberg is the rightful favorite, but the number is short enough that bettors can look for a better payout in a smaller group market.

Matsuyama is always a threat because his iron play and short game can travel anywhere, but he will likely draw plenty of public support. MacIntyre is the better price if you want a more balanced risk-reward position.

This is not a bet that MacIntyre is the best player in the group. It is a bet that Aberg is not unbeatable, Matsuyama is not automatic, and MacIntyre has enough Colonial-friendly traits to beat the group at a bigger number.

Bet: Robert MacIntyre (+600)

Top 10 Finish Parlay

• Akshay Bhatia Top 10 (+175)
• Russell Henley Top 10 (+220)

The Top 10 parlay idea is Akshay Bhatia Top 10 with Russell Henley Top 10. The combined number will depend on the sportsbook, so this should be treated as a market idea rather than a confirmed final price.

The logic is clean. Bhatia gives the card upside, while Henley gives it stability. Both players fit Colonial better than a pure birdie-fest venue, and both can cash a Top 10 ticket without needing to win the tournament.

The risk is obvious. Top 10 parlays in golf are difficult because one bad putting round can kill a leg. This should be a smaller bet, not the main position on the card.

Bettors looking for the best available number should compare options through trusted sportsbook reviews before placing the wager. For more weekly betting angles, bettors can also compare premium opinions from the best handicappers.

Bet: Akshay Bhatia Top 10 + Russell Henley Top 10

Why Colonial Changes This Week’s Golf Picks

The reason these PGA golf picks this week look different from THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson card is simple: Colonial is a different test. TPC Craig Ranch rewarded aggressive scoring, while Colonial rewards discipline and control.

That means bettors should be careful with players who only profile well on easy birdie tracks. At Colonial, short grass, approach proximity, par-4 efficiency, and bogey avoidance carry more weight than raw birdie rate.

This is also a smart week to think about placement markets instead of only outrights. A player like Henley or MacIntyre might not be the most exciting win bet, but they can offer stronger value in Top 10 or Top 20 markets.

Next week’s betting board will change again with the Memorial Tournament odds at Muirfield Village. That event usually attracts a stronger field and creates a different futures conversation than this week’s Colonial card.

Final Golf Picks This Week

The best golf picks this week start with Akshay Bhatia as the outright winner at +1600. He has enough ceiling to win, enough precision to fit Colonial, and a better payout than the top favorite.

Russell Henley is the best Top 10 play, Robert MacIntyre is the best Top 20 value, and Bhatia is also the best Top American option. MacIntyre is the Top International value if you want to fade Aberg’s shorter price.

The card should stay tight. Colonial is not the place to fire at every longshot just because the odds look big. This week’s golf picks should be built around accuracy, patience, and players who can survive a course where pars still matter.

The final card is Bhatia outright, Henley Top 10, MacIntyre Top 20, Bhatia Top American, MacIntyre Top International, and a small Bhatia/Henley Top 10 parlay if the combined price is worth the risk.