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Our number has Navy by 2.6. At +7, take UAB.
Navy opened as an 11.5-point favourite at UAB at DraftKings and is 7 now. Our number is Navy by 2.6. The gap is 4.4 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
UAB is 3-3 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 10.2 points a game across 6 games. Navy is 3-3 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 5.0 a game across 6 games. The difference is 5.2 points in Navy’s favour. Half of it is 2.6.
Six games a side is thin. Only one game in each sample comes from 2026: UAB’s 26-20 home win over UL Monroe on 12 September, and Navy’s 38-30 loss at Florida Atlantic the same day.
Navy on the road
The spread asks whether Navy wins by 8 or more. It has done that in 2 of its 6 road games against FBS teams: 42-23 at Tulsa and 28-17 at Memphis, both in 2025.
The other four were a 32-31 win at Temple, a 31-17 loss at North Texas, a 49-10 loss at Notre Dame and the loss at Florida Atlantic. The Notre Dame game alone is 39 points of the sample. Without it, Navy’s other five road games average +1.8, which still sits well short of 7.
Navy at home is a different team. It went 6-0 there in 2025. None of that counts here, because this game is in Birmingham.
UAB at home
UAB’s home margins are poor, and the method takes them at face value. The three losses were 31-13 to Army, 53-24 to North Texas and 48-18 to South Florida, all in 2025. The three wins were by 3, 7 and 6.
So the home number of -10.2 is two different things averaged: three close wins and three heavy losses. Navy wins by 8 or more only if this game looks like the second group.
2026 so far
Navy is 1-1. It beat Towson 42-15, a team outside the FBS, and lost 38-30 at Florida Atlantic, its only FBS game. That loss is also its only American Conference game, so Navy is 0-1 in the conference.
UAB is 1-2, all three against FBS teams. It lost 42-23 at Illinois, beat UL Monroe 26-20 at home and lost 21-14 at Louisiana on 19 September. It has scored 21.0 a game and allowed 27.7. UAB has not played a conference game yet.
Last season
Navy went 11-2 in 2025 and won by 6.5 a game, finishing with a 35-13 win over Cincinnati at a neutral site on 2 January 2026. UAB went 4-8 and lost by 11.8 a game, and was 1-5 on the road.
The two met once in that span. Navy won 38-24 at home on 6 September 2025, a 14-point margin.
The price
Navy opened at -11.5 and is -7 now, read 24 September 2026 at 04:28 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 4.5-point move toward UAB. Both sides of the spread are priced at -110.
The moneyline has Navy at -278 and UAB at +225, from -500 and +380 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Navy to win 70.5% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Navy at 73.3%.
Navy is the likelier winner by every measure here, ours included. The disagreement is about size: the market says 7, the method says 2.6.
Pick: UAB +7
UAB +7 at -110. The gap is 4.4 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 12 games, split 6 and 6, and one of Navy’s is a 39-point loss at Notre Dame. The line has already moved 4.5 points toward this side since the open.
What changes it
More movement toward UAB. At UAB +6 the gap is 3.4 and the bet stands. At +5.5 it is 2.9, and the call becomes a pass.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 53.5 and is 51.5 now, over -108 and under -112.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Navy’s games went over 51.5 in 8 of 13, and UAB’s in 10 of 14. Navy’s two games this season produced 57 and 68 points. UAB’s went the other way: 65, then 46, then 35.
Lean over 51.5, and no more than a lean. The two-season rates point up, and UAB’s last two games point down.
Navy at UAB, Friday 25 September, 7:00 PM ET, Protective Stadium, Birmingham. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:28 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23-24 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
