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No bet. Central Arkansas has two road games against FBS teams, too few for our number to price this one.
Florida State opened as a 42.5-point favourite over Central Arkansas at DraftKings and is 44.5 now. Our number is Florida State by 29.1, 15.4 points short of the line. It makes no bet. The method needs at least 4 games in each sample before it prices a side, and Central Arkansas has 2.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Florida State is 5-3 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 16.2 points a game across 8 games. Central Arkansas is 0-2 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 42.0 a game across 2 games. The difference is 58.2 points. Half of it is 29.1.
Central Arkansas plays outside the FBS. Two games is what the method has for it, and two games proves little. Both were in 2025: a 61-6 loss at Missouri on 28 August and a 45-16 loss at Sacramento State on 20 September. Central Arkansas has played no FBS team in 2026.
Florida State at home
The spread asks whether Florida State wins by 45 or more. In its 8 home games against FBS teams, it did that once, 66-10 over Kent State in 2025.
The other home wins were 31-17 over Alabama, 42-7 over Wake Forest and 34-14 over Virginia Tech in 2025, and 34-17 over New Mexico State this season. The three losses were all by 6 or fewer: Miami, Pittsburgh, and SMU 27-24 on 7 September.
The 77-3 win over East Texas A&M in 2025 is left out, because East Texas A&M plays outside the FBS. That is the closest thing in the data to this game, and it was a 74-point margin. The method does not count it, and it is one more reason not to lean on our number here.
2026 so far
Florida State is 1-2, all three against FBS teams, and has lost two in a row. It beat New Mexico State, lost to SMU at home and lost 50-36 at Alabama on 19 September. It has scored 31.3 a game and allowed the same.
Central Arkansas is 2-2, all four against teams outside the FBS. It won 36-24 at UT Martin and 59-20 over Central Oklahoma, and lost 42-14 at home to West Florida and 27-9 at Southeast Missouri State on 19 September.
Last season
Florida State went 5-7 in 2025 and still won by 11.0 a game. It was 5-2 at home and 0-5 on the road. Central Arkansas went 3-9 and lost by 10.7 a game.
The two teams did not meet in 2025 or 2026.
The price
Florida State opened at -42.5 and is -44.5 now, read 24 September 2026 at 04:28 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 2-point move toward Florida State. Central Arkansas +44.5 is priced at -115, Florida State -44.5 at -105.
No moneyline is posted. ESPN’s FPI has Florida State at 99.3% to win, and our number has Florida State winning by 29.1. The only question is the size.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the spread. Our number rests on 10 games, split 8 and 2, and the method makes no bet when either sample is under 4 games.
Central Arkansas’s 2 are 2025 losses at Missouri and Sacramento State, by 55 and 29. A 15.4-point gap on those says more about the sample than the game.
What changes it
More road games against FBS teams for Central Arkansas. It has played none in 2026, and this one would be its third across the two seasons, still one short of 4.
A move in the line only changes the gap. The line has moved 2 points toward Florida State since the open, and at either number the Central Arkansas sample is two games.
The total
The total opened at 59.5 and is 60.5 now, both sides at -110.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Florida State’s games went over 60.5 in 5 of 14. Central Arkansas’s two FBS games produced 67 and 61, both over. Its four games this season produced 60, 56, 79 and 36.
Pass on the total at 60.5. Two games is no rate, and Florida State’s 14 lean under.
Central Arkansas at Florida State, Saturday 26 September, 3:00 PM ET, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:28 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23-24 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
