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Our number has Old Dominion by 2.4. At +6, take Old Dominion.
James Madison opened as a 4.5-point favourite at Old Dominion at DraftKings and is 6 now. Our number goes the other way: Old Dominion by 2.4. The gap is 8.4 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Old Dominion is 5-1 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 17.3 points a game across 6 games. James Madison is 6-2 on the road against FBS teams, winning by 12.5 a game across 8 games. The difference is 4.8 points in Old Dominion’s favour. Half of it is 2.4.
Both are good records, and both samples are thin. Only one game in each comes from 2026: Old Dominion’s 20-17 home loss to East Carolina on 19 September, and James Madison’s 26-13 win at San Diego State the same day.
Old Dominion at home
Old Dominion went 5-0 at home against FBS teams in 2025. Three of the wins were by 17 or more: 47-7 over Coastal Carolina, 33-0 over Troy and 27-10 over Georgia State. The other two were 21-7 over Liberty and 24-21 over App State.
The loss to East Carolina is the only home defeat in the sample, by 3. It is also the most recent game on the list, and it pulls the average down from 21.4 to 17.3.
James Madison on the road
James Madison’s road wins are large. It won 59-10 at Coastal Carolina and 52-20 at Texas State in 2025, and all six of its road wins were by 7 or more.
The two losses were 28-14 at Louisville in September 2025 and 51-34 at Oregon on 20 December. Take those out and the road margin is +21.8. The method keeps them, and they are why the number is 12.5.
2026 so far
James Madison is 3-0. It beat Liberty 20-13 at home, Wagner 87-3, a team outside the FBS, and San Diego State on the road. Against its two FBS opponents it has scored 23.0 a game and allowed 13.0.
Old Dominion is 1-2. It beat Norfolk State 31-10, a team outside the FBS, lost 44-21 at Virginia Tech and then lost to East Carolina. Against FBS teams it has scored 19.0 a game and allowed 32.0. Neither team has played a Sun Belt game yet.
Last season
James Madison went 12-2 in 2025, won by 18.7 a game and went 7-0 at home. Old Dominion went 10-3, won by 13.5 a game and went 6-0 at home, finishing with a 24-10 win over South Florida at a neutral site on 17 December.
The two met once in that span, and it was not close. James Madison won 63-27 at home on 18 October 2025. Because it was played at James Madison, it counts in neither sample here.
The price
James Madison opened at -4.5 and is -6 now, read 24 September 2026 at 04:29 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 1.5-point move toward James Madison. Old Dominion +6 is priced at -108, James Madison -6 at -112.
The moneyline has James Madison at -225 and Old Dominion at +185, from -175 and +145 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices James Madison to win 66.4% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has James Madison at 74.4%.
Here our number picks a different winner from the market. The method has Old Dominion winning by 2.4; the market has James Madison by 6.
Pick: Old Dominion +6
Old Dominion +6 at -108. The gap is 8.4 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 14 games, split 6 and 8. The 36-point loss in last season’s meeting is the strongest single fact against it, and the method does not see it because it was played at James Madison.
What changes it
A line move toward Old Dominion. At Old Dominion +1 the gap is 3.4 and the bet stands. At +0.5 it is 2.9, and the call becomes a pass.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 50.5 and is 44.5 now, over -115 and under -105. That is a 6-point drop.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, James Madison’s games went over 44.5 in 8 of 15, and Old Dominion’s in 7 of 14. This season James Madison’s FBS games produced 33 and 39 points; Old Dominion’s produced 65 and 37.
Pass on the total at 44.5. Both samples sit near half.
James Madison at Old Dominion, Saturday 26 September, 6:00 PM ET, S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:29 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23-24 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
