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No bet. Lindenwood has three road games against FBS teams, too few for our number to price this one.
Eastern Michigan is a 25.5-point favourite over Lindenwood at DraftKings, where it opened. Our number is Eastern Michigan by 13.4, 12.1 points short of the line. It makes no bet. The method needs at least 4 games in each sample before it prices a side, and Lindenwood has 3.
How the number is built
Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Eastern Michigan is 4-3 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 0.4 points a game across 7 games. Lindenwood is 0-3 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 26.3 a game across 3 games. The difference is 26.7 points. Half of it is 13.35, which rounds to 13.4.
Lindenwood plays outside the FBS. Three games against FBS teams is all the method has for it, and three games prove little.
Eastern Michigan at home
Eastern Michigan’s home games against FBS teams have been close, all seven of them. The biggest margin either way was 11 points, a 28-17 win over Sacramento State on 29 August. The wins were by 3, 6, 6 and 11; the losses by 6, 7 and 10.
That is the strongest part of our number. In 7 home games against FBS teams, Eastern Michigan has not won by more than 11. The spread asks it to win by 26.
Lindenwood against FBS teams
The three road games were a 20-13 loss at App State and a 38-0 loss at Miami (OH), both in 2025, and a 48-14 loss at Missouri State on 12 September. Two of the three went past 25.5; one did not.
That split is why three games cannot carry a price. On its most recent trip to an FBS stadium, Lindenwood lost by 34.
2026 so far
Eastern Michigan is 1-3, all against FBS teams. It beat Sacramento State, lost 27-21 to San José State at home, lost 35-7 at Michigan State and 54-10 at Wisconsin on 19 September. It has scored 16.5 a game and allowed 33.2. ESPN’s standings show it 1-0 in conference play.
Lindenwood is 1-2. It beat Charleston Southern 20-17, lost 36-32 at Stony Brook, and lost at Missouri State. Against its one FBS opponent it scored 14 and allowed 48.
Last season
Eastern Michigan went 4-8 in 2025 and was outscored by 5.7 points a game. It was 3-3 at home. Lindenwood went 6-6, 0-2 against FBS teams, and was outscored by 2.2 a game.
The two teams did not meet in 2025 or so far in 2026. This is not a conference game.
The price
Eastern Michigan is -25.5, unchanged from the open, read 24 September 2026 at 04:28 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. Both sides are priced at -110.
The moneyline has moved even though the spread has not. Eastern Michigan is -6500 and Lindenwood +2000, from -2400 and +1200 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Eastern Michigan to win 95.4% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Eastern Michigan at 85.5%, nearly 10 points lower.
The market is more certain of Eastern Michigan than FPI is, and much more than our number. The disagreement with ours is 12.1 points of margin.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the spread. Our number rests on 10 games, split 7 and 3. The 7 are the stronger half: Eastern Michigan’s home margins against FBS teams did not reach 12 in 2025 or 2026.
The 3 are where it stops. The method makes no bet when either sample is under 4 games, and Lindenwood’s three road losses to FBS teams ran from 7 points to 38.
What changes it
A fourth road game against an FBS team for Lindenwood, and this is it. Once Saturday is played, its sample reaches 4 and the method can price the next one.
Before then, no line changes the call. The gap is 12.1 points and it rests on 3 Lindenwood games.
The total
The total is 50.5, unchanged from the open, over and under both -110.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Eastern Michigan’s games went over 50.5 in 7 of 15, and Lindenwood’s in 1 of 3. This season Eastern Michigan’s four games produced 45, 48, 42 and 64 points; Lindenwood’s three produced 37, 68 and 62.
Pass on the total at 50.5. Eastern Michigan’s record sits almost exactly on the number.
Lindenwood at Eastern Michigan, Saturday 26 September, 1:00 PM ET, Rynearson Stadium, Ypsilanti. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:28 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23-24 September 2026. Neither team is ranked in the AP Poll, Week 4, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
