NFL Predictions 
MLB Predictions 
NBA Predictions 
NHL Predictions 
Soccer Predictions 
Our number has Washington by 16.9. At -10, take Washington.
Washington is a 10-point favourite over Minnesota at DraftKings, up from 9.5 at the open. Our number is Washington by 16.9. The gap is 6.9 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.
How the number is built
Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Washington is 6-2 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 9.4 points a game across 8 games. Minnesota is 0-5 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 24.4 a game across 5 games. The difference is 33.8 points. Half of it is 16.9.
Eight and five games is a small base. Minnesota’s five are all from 2025: this is its first road game of 2026. Two of Washington’s eight are from this season, 24-10 over Washington State and 16-14 over Utah State.
Minnesota on the road
Minnesota did not win a road game against an FBS team in 2025. It lost 27-14 at California, 42-3 at Ohio State, 41-3 at Iowa, 42-13 at Oregon and 38-35 at Northwestern.
The spread asks whether Washington wins by 11 or more. Minnesota lost by 11 or more in 4 of those 5 road games. The exception was the 3-point loss at Northwestern on 22 November.
Washington at home
Washington won 5 of its 8 home games against FBS teams by 11 or more: 38-21 over Colorado State, 38-19 over Rutgers, 42-25 over Illinois, 49-13 over Purdue and 24-10 over Washington State. The losses were 24-6 to Ohio State and 26-14 to Oregon.
The weak point is the most recent one. Washington beat Utah State by 2 on 12 September, and that game sits inside the 8 as well.
2026 so far
Washington is 3-0, all at home. After Washington State and Utah State it beat Eastern Washington 48-16, a team outside the FBS. Against its two FBS opponents it has scored 20.0 a game and allowed 12.0.
Minnesota is 2-1, also all at home. It beat Eastern Illinois 59-7, lost 38-13 to Mississippi State, and beat Akron 41-7 on 19 September. Against its two FBS opponents it has scored 27.0 a game and allowed 22.5.
Last season
Minnesota’s 2025 split hard by venue. It went 8-5, 7-0 at home and 0-5 on the road, and outscored its opponents by 0.1 points a game. It won its bowl game 20-17 over New Mexico on 26 December. Washington went 9-4, won by 15.4 a game, and beat Boise State 38-10 at a neutral site on 13 December.
The two teams did not meet in 2025 or so far in 2026. This is a Big Ten game, the first in conference play for either team this season.
The price
Washington opened at -9.5 and is -10 now, read 24 September 2026 at 04:29 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. Washington -10 is priced at -105, Minnesota +10 at -115.
The moneyline has Washington at -395 and Minnesota at +310, from -410 and +320 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Washington to win 76.6% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Washington at 73.5%.
All three measures have Washington as the winner. Ours has it winning by 6.9 points more than the market does.
Pick: Washington -10
Washington -10 at -105. The gap is 6.9 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 13 games, split 8 and 5. The 5 is the part that carries it: five road losses, four of them by 13 or more.
What changes it
A line move toward Washington. At -13.5 the gap is 3.4 and the bet stands. At -14 it is 2.9, and the call becomes a pass.
The number would also shrink if Minnesota’s road form of 2025 does not carry into 2026. There is no 2026 road game to check it against yet. Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 44.5 and is 45.5 now, over -112 and under -108.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Washington’s games went over 45.5 in 7 of 14, and Minnesota’s in 6 of 14. This season Washington’s three games produced 34, 30 and 64 points; Minnesota’s produced 66, 51 and 48.
Pass on the total at 45.5. Both records sit on the number.
Minnesota at Washington, Saturday 26 September, 11:00 PM ET, Husky Stadium, Seattle. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:29 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23-24 September 2026. Neither team is ranked in the AP Poll, Week 4, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
