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Our number has Louisville by 6.9. At +13.5, take Wake Forest.
No. 16 Louisville is a 13.5-point favourite over Wake Forest at DraftKings, where it opened. Our number is Louisville by 6.9. The gap is 6.6 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.
How the number is built
Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Louisville is 5-3 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 11.9 points a game across 8 games. Wake Forest is 4-2 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 1.8 a game across 6 games. The difference is 13.7 points. Half of it is 6.85, which rounds to 6.9.
Eight and six games is a small base. One game in each comes from 2026: Louisville’s 41-31 win over SMU on 19 September, and Wake Forest’s 38-36 win at Purdue on 12 September.
Wake Forest on the road
Wake Forest won four of its six road games against FBS teams: 30-23 at Virginia Tech, 39-14 at Oregon State and 16-9 at Virginia in 2025, then 38-36 at Purdue. The two losses were heavy, 42-7 at Florida State and 49-32 at Duke.
The spread asks whether Louisville wins by 14 or more. Wake Forest lost by that much on the road in 2 of 6 games. In the other 4 it won.
Louisville at home
Louisville won 4 of its 8 home games against FBS teams by 14 or more: 28-14 over James Madison, 40-17 over Bowling Green, 38-24 over Boston College and 41-0 over Kentucky. The 41-0 game carries a large share of the average.
The three losses were all by 3 or fewer: 30-27 to Virginia, 29-26 to California and 20-19 to Clemson. The eighth game was the 10-point win over SMU. Half of Louisville’s home games against FBS teams would not have covered 13.5.
2026 so far
Louisville is 2-1, 1-0 in the ACC, and has won two straight. It lost 41-38 to Ole Miss at a neutral site, then beat Villanova 59-13, a team outside the FBS, and SMU. Against its two FBS opponents it has scored 39.5 a game and allowed 36.0.
Wake Forest is 2-1, all against FBS teams, and 0-1 in the ACC. It beat Akron 38-16, won at Purdue, and lost 33-20 to Miami at home on 18 September. It has scored 32.0 a game and allowed 28.3.
Last season
Both teams went 9-4 in 2025. Louisville won by 8.8 points a game and beat Toledo 27-22 in its bowl game on 23 December. Wake Forest won by 6.0 a game, went 3-2 on the road, and beat Mississippi State 43-29 on 2 January 2026.
The two teams did not meet in 2025 or so far in 2026. This is an ACC game.
The price
Louisville is -13.5, unchanged from the open, read 24 September 2026 at 04:28 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. Louisville -13.5 is priced at -105, Wake Forest +13.5 at -115.
The moneyline has Louisville at -550 and Wake Forest at +410, from -650 and +470 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Louisville to win 81.2% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Louisville at 80.1%.
The moneyline has moved slightly toward Wake Forest while the spread held. Our number is 6.6 points further toward Wake Forest than the spread.
Pick: Wake Forest +13.5
Wake Forest +13.5 at -115. The gap is 6.6 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 14 games, split 8 and 6. Wake Forest won 4 of 6 on the road against FBS teams; Louisville failed to win by 14 in half of its 8 home games against them.
What changes it
A line move toward Wake Forest. At +10 the gap is 3.1 and the bet stands. At +9.5 it is 2.6, and the call becomes a pass.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 58.5 and is 57.5 now, over -112 and under -108.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Wake Forest’s games went over 57.5 in 6 of 15, and Louisville’s in 4 of 14. This season Louisville’s three games produced 79, 72 and 72 points; Wake Forest’s produced 54, 74 and 53.
Pass on the total at 57.5. The two-season records sit under it and Louisville’s 2026 games sit well over it, and the sample does not say which one to trust.
Wake Forest at Louisville, Saturday 26 September, 12:00 PM ET, L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:28 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23-24 September 2026. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 4, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
