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J.D. Vance leads the market on the next presidential election, trading at 20 cents on Kalshi’s “who will win the next presidential election” contracts, a 20% implied chance. The Democratic Party is favored to win the White House at 59 cents against 41 for the Republicans, as of September 25, 2026.
The election is on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. Federal law sets election day as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November every fourth year, and in 2028 that Monday is November 6.
Industry’s Best
Handicapping Membership
Who will win the presidency: the market
| Candidate | Kalshi price | Implied chance | Equivalent odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 20 cents | 20.0% | +400 |
| Jon Ossoff | 12 cents | 12.0% | +733 |
| Marco Rubio | 9.6 cents | 9.6% | +942 |
| Gavin Newsom | 9.4 cents | 9.4% | +964 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 9.1 cents | 9.1% | +999 |
| Kamala Harris | 3.8 cents | 3.8% | +2532 |
| Mark Kelly | 3.0 cents | 3.0% | +3233 |
These are last-traded prices on Kalshi, an exchange where a contract pays $1 if its outcome happens. A 20-cent price is a 20% implied chance, and the equivalent American odds are shown for comparison with a sportsbook board. The contracts close after the 2028 election.
The winning-party market has the Democrats at 59 cents and the Republicans at 41. The two add up to 100 cents, so the market gives the Democrats about three chances in five.
Republican nominee
| Candidate | Kalshi price |
|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 45 cents |
| Marco Rubio | 20 cents |
| Ron DeSantis | 4.4 cents |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 3.5 cents |
| Tucker Carlson | 2.9 cents |
| Ted Cruz | 1.9 cents |
Vance trades at 45 cents to be the Republican nominee, more than twice Rubio’s price. Dividing his 20 cents to win the presidency by his 45 cents to be nominated gives about 44%, the market’s chance that he wins the general election if he is the nominee.
Democratic nominee
| Candidate | Kalshi price |
|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 17 cents |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16 cents |
| Gavin Newsom | 14 cents |
| Kamala Harris | 7.1 cents |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.3 cents |
| Josh Shapiro | 4.7 cents |
| Andy Beshear | 4.5 cents |
The Democratic field is open. No candidate is above 17 cents, and the top three are within 3 cents of each other, where the Republican side has one candidate at 45.
What the prices say
A contract is worth buying only when you rate the chance higher than the price does. At 20 cents, Vance has to win more than one time in five for a contract to pay off over time. At 17 cents, Ossoff has to be the Democratic nominee more than about one time in six.
The 22nd Amendment says no person shall be elected to the office of President more than twice, and the two nominees are chosen in the party primaries before the November 7, 2028, vote.
Our election betting guide covers how political markets work, and our Senate odds and Time Person of the Year odds pages cover the other markets. Our sportsbook reviews cover the books we have tested.
