Pick the Aces - Aces at Mercury prediction, odds and best picks

Las Vegas is 11-1 on the road against losing teams. Take the Aces at -11 or shorter.

No book had a line on this game when I read the market at 16:15 UTC on 21 September, so this piece gives the price I would pay. My number is Las Vegas by 12.15. Every figure runs through Sunday 20 September; both teams play once more before Thursday.

The number

Las Vegas has a winning record, so my figure takes Phoenix’s home games against winning teams. Phoenix has a losing record, so it takes Las Vegas’s road games against losing teams. Half the difference between the two average margins is the number.

Phoenix is 1-8 in those nine home games and loses them by 8.7 points on average. Las Vegas is 11-1 in its twelve road games against losing teams and wins them by 15.6. Half the difference is Las Vegas by 12.15.

I play a side when my number and the price are at least a point apart, which makes Las Vegas a bet at -11 or shorter and a pass at -11.5 or longer. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Las Vegas 66.2%.

Source: ESPN results, read 21 September 2026; every final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game. Games ESPN marks as neutral-site are left out of both.

The samples

Las Vegas’s twelve road games against losing teams have a single loss, by one point, and five wins by 16 or more.

Phoenix’s nine home games against winning teams include a 111-77 loss to Minnesota on 1 June. Without it, the other eight average a 5.5-point loss and my number falls to Las Vegas by 10.55, under the pick price.

The three meetings

Phoenix won the first, 99-66 in Las Vegas on 9 May. Las Vegas won the next two, 86-76 in Phoenix on 17 June and 106-58 at home on 11 July.

Source: ESPN results, read 21 September 2026; every final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game.

That is one blowout each way and one ten-point game in Phoenix. I would not build a number on it.

Form

Las Vegas has won five straight and is 7-3 over the last ten, winning by 6.8 a game. The last two were both over Seattle, 114-77 away and 98-77 at home.

Phoenix is 3-7 over the last ten, losing by 1.6 a game, and lost 87-82 in Dallas on Saturday. The Mercury play Dallas again at home on Monday.

Source: ESPN results, read 21 September 2026; every final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game.

The total

With no total posted there is nothing to bet. Las Vegas games have a median total of 179 this season and Phoenix’s 170. Over the last ten, the Aces’ games have averaged 173.8 and the Mercury’s 171.4.

Source: ESPN results, read 21 September 2026; every final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game.

The three meetings produced 165, 162 and 164, all under both medians.

Pick: Aces -11 or shorter

Pick: Las Vegas Aces, at -11 or shorter. My number is Las Vegas by 12.15. No line had been posted when this was written, 21 September 2026 at 16:15 UTC.

What would change it: a line of Las Vegas -11.5 or longer is a pass. So is any sign that Las Vegas rests starters on the last night of the regular season.

Las Vegas Aces at Phoenix Mercury, Thursday 24 September 2026, 10:00 PM ET, Mortgage Matchup Center. Results: ESPN, read 21 September 2026, each final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game. ESPN marks one Phoenix game, at Los Angeles on 11 August, as neutral-site, and it is left out of the home and road splits. ESPN matchup predictor read 21 September 2026. Every WNBA game: WNBA predictions.