Advanced NFL Playoff Betting Guide

The NFL playoffs are highly anticipated games that narrow down the remaining teams until we have our two contestants in the Super Bowl. Throughout the duration of the NFL playoffs, there are many great betting opportunities that advanced bettors can capitalize on.

In this NFL playoff betting guide you’ll find information on how the NFL playoffs are structured, how you can use advanced statistics to your advantage, and some additional tips for betting on NFL playoff games.

Understanding NFL Playoffs

NFL Playoff Games

Finding Value with Stats

Tips for Betting on the NFL Playoffs

The Largest NFL Betting Events

How the NFL Playoffs Work

The NFL playoffs consist of 13 games spread across 4 different rounds. These rounds take place a week apart, with the exception of the Super Bowl which has an extra week of preparation time built in.

For NFL teams, the playoffs are the last chance at glory. Winners advance to the next round, and the season is over for the losers.

There are a total of 14 teams in the league that make the playoffs, including seven from the AFC and another seven from the NFC. These teams are each given a seed number, which ranges from 1 through 7.

Seeding

Seeding for the NFL playoffs is extremely important. Teams can earn their way into the playoffs in one of two ways: winning their division or earning a wild card spot.

Four of the seven playoff spots for both the AFC and NFC are reserved for the division winners. Based on the win-loss record, these teams are assigned the 1 through 4 seeds, with the one seed being the team with the best regular season record.

The additional three wild card sports are awarded to the teams with the best records who did not win their division. These teams are given a seed number ranging between 5 and 7.

Once the seeding is set, the rules are simple: the higher seed in a matchup is awarded home-field advantage. As a result, the first round of the playoffs, known as the wild card round, goes as follows:

The 1st seed gets a bye
The 2nd seed hosts the 7th seed
The 3rd seed hosts the 6th seed
The 4th seed hosts the 5th seed

All NFL Playoff Games

The NFL playoffs consist of 13 games, including the Super Bowl. These 13 games are split up into different rounds, where winning teams advance and losing teams face the end of their season.
Below is a breakdown of the NFL playoff rounds.

Wild Card Round

The wild card round is the first week of the NFL playoffs. During this week, 12 of the 14 playoff teams played in 6 different games (3 for the AFC and 3 for the NFC). The two top-seeded teams from the AFC and NFC do not play, as their regular season record earned them a bye in the first week of the playoffs.

The wild card round is perhaps the most exciting round of the NFL playoffs and marks the start of what becomes some intense betting action.

Divisional Round

The divisional round takes place the week following the wild card round.

This week, the top-ranked teams in the AFC and NFC played the lowest-remaining seed in their conference. Meanwhile, the two winners of the previous week also play one another to see who advances.

Championship Round

By this point in the NFL playoffs, only 4 teams remain (2 from the AFC and 2 from the NFC). The two teams from the AFC play each other, as well as the two from the NFC. The two winners of these games go on to compete against one another in the Super Bowl.

The NFL championship round sets the stage for an exciting Super Bowl matchup. At this point in the season, there is a lot of past data that makes it easier to research your bets and find the best value possible.

Super Bowl

The Super Bowl is the most anticipated and wagered-on sporting event in the world, and the number of bets available for it go well beyond any other games throughout the season. This is the true winner-take-all matchup of the season, and the two teams competing will have the opportunity to demonstrate why they’re the best of the best.

The Super Bowl takes place two weeks after the championship round. This extra week in between the games gives teams more prep time for the game. For bettors, this extra week is beneficial for researching your potential bets and checking out what the different sportsbooks have to offer.

Using Advanced Statistics to Find Betting Value

Finding value for the NFL playoffs goes far beyond taking the bet with the best odds. In fact, there are many methods you can follow that will help you always make sure you’re getting the most value possible out of your wagers, but the most effective is to leverage advanced statistics.

Advanced statistics go so much deeper than the surface-level statistics that you can easily skim in a spreadsheet. These advanced statistics help ensure that you’re giving yourself the statistically most likely chance to win your bet. By using advanced statistics, you can gain access to additional context and analysis needed to make informed betting decisions.

There are three main types of advanced statistics: team-level stats, player-level stats, and situational and contextual stats.

Team-Level Stats

As the name suggests, team-level advanced stats take a closer look at a team’s total efficiency based on several factors. Some popular team-level stats include:

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): Measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.
EPA (Expected Points Added): Calculates the expected points added or lost by a team or player on each play, taking into account down, distance, and field position.
Success Rate: The percentage of plays that are successful based on the down and distance. For example, a play is successful if it gains 40% of the required yards on first down, 60% on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down.
Yards per Play: Measures the average yards gained per play by the offense, often adjusted for opponent strength.
Third Down Conversion Rate: The percentage of times a team successfully converts on third down, which is crucial for sustaining drives.
Red Zone Efficiency: The percentage of times a team scores a touchdown when inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.

Player-Level Stats

Player-level stats are similar to team-level stats, except it focuses on specific players or positions. This data is extremely beneficial for player prop bets.

Some popular advanced player-level stats include:

QBR (Quarterback Rating): A comprehensive rating that considers all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including passing, rushing, turnovers, and penalties.
Air Yards: The total yards the ball travels in the air from the line of scrimmage to the point of reception. It provides insight into a quarterback’s passing depth and a receiver’s route running.
Yards After Catch (YAC): Measures the average yards gained by a receiver after catching the ball, indicating their ability to make plays in the open field.
Passer Rating under Pressure: Evaluates a quarterback’s performance when facing defensive pressure, giving insight into their poise and decision-making under duress.
Run Stop Percentage: For defensive players, this stat measures the percentage of a player’s run defense snaps where they stop the runner for a loss or a minimal gain.

Situational and Contextual Stats

Unlike team- and player-level stats, the situational and contextual data is great for looking at the matchup as a whole. Leveraging this data can be a great indicator of which team truly has the edge in a matchup.

Below are popular situational and contextual advanced stats:

Win Probability Added (WPA): Measures the impact of a play on the team’s chances of winning the game, often used to evaluate decision-making and clutch performance.
Game Script: Analyzes how a team performs in various game situations, such as when leading, trailing, or in close games.
Turnover Differential: The difference between the number of turnovers a team commits and the number they force, which can be critical in playoff games where possessions are valuable.
Strength of Schedule: Evaluates the difficulty of a team’s opponents throughout the season, providing context to their win-loss record and performance metrics.
Pace of Play: Measures the number of plays a team runs per game, indicating how quickly they operate on offense and potentially affecting total points and game flow.

Tips for Betting on the NFL Playoffs

Using advanced statics is a proven way to improve your betting success. However, there are several other tips we can provide that should also help you find success during the NFL playoffs.

Use a Handicapping Service

Advanced statistics are not easy to calculate on your own. In fact, they can take countless hours of your time that still may result in a mathematical error on your part. This is why we recommend using a handicapping service such as the one offered here at Scores and Stats.

Professional handicapping services save you a ton of time on research and analysis, and provide you with the context and data you need to make informed decisions. These services can help you maximize your profit, especially if you use them throughout the length of the season and the playoffs.

The NFL playoffs are a great time to find a handicapping service, as you’ll face plenty of competition from the sportsbooks and other bettors.

Exploit Weaknesses

The pressure of the NFL playoffs is not for the faint of heart. Unfortunately, this added pressure seems to cause a disruption in some players and teams that overrides the advanced statistics and previous data they had for the matchup.

For example, there are many NFL coaches out there who are well-known for always having a great regular season record and then losing in the first round of the playoffs. This can result from a lack of preparation, a key injury on the team, and even just buckling under pressure.

Use previous data from recent years’ playoff games to determine if a team has a weakness that will play a role in their playoff matchup. If the team historically doesn’t perform well in the playoffs, then use this context to your advantage when placing your bet.

Hedge Your Bets

Hedging your bets is great if you have the room in your budget. Whenever you place a risky bet, simply place a safer bet on the opposite result of what you bet on previously. This helps you maintain your bankroll in the scenario you find yourself losing more bets than you win.

There are a few ways you can go about hedging your bets, but it’s always important to make sure the bets you’re using to hedge have extremely favorable odds for the outcome you bet on. Otherwise, you run the risk of doubling down on your losses for each bet you place.

Player Rankings Aren’t the End-All-Be-All

Never fall into the trap of betting on the team with the most popular and high-ranked players. Although these superstars have a major impact on the game, it’s important to remember that NFL football is a team game, and banking on the success of one player is an extremely risky strategy.

Player rankings posted by a team of analysts also lack all the advanced statistics needed to make the most accurate rankings possible. This can leave you with the wrong perception of how a team may perform. Player rankings are essential to factor into your wagers, but never let them outrank advanced statistics or data you can access.

Make Money From Betting on the NFL Playoffs

The NFL playoffs come and go in the blink of an eye. With only a few short weeks needed to host all these games, it’s important to have all your data and strategies in order before the playoffs arrive.

Save yourself the time and headache of trying to break down these advanced statistics, and allow our team of handicapping experts to do the hard work for you. Use our premium service to gain instant access to historical data, advanced statistics, and recommended picks based on your preferences. Give yourself an extra advantage over sportsbooks and other bettors this NFL season.