NFL Week 4 Odds and Predictions 2026: Picks for Every Game

Thursday, October 1 · 8:15 PM ET

Divisional

Pittsburgh Steelers

at

Cleveland Browns

In the division, where the margin matters as much as the result once the tiebreakers are counted. A short week cuts the install, not the legs. The simpler team usually handles it better, whatever the rest narrative says. We think the market is closer to right here than the talk suggests.

Sunday, October 4 · 9:30 AM ET

Interconference

Indianapolis Colts

at

Washington Commanders

Cross-conference, so nothing here settles a tiebreaker, which is exactly why it gets overread. A 9:30 AM ET kickoff from abroad. Both teams are out of routine, which is the point and also the reason to be careful with it. We would take the home side’s price more seriously than the home side’s reputation.

Sunday, October 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Divisional

New England Patriots

at

Buffalo Bills

A division game: the same two staffs, twice a year, every year. There is very little left to disguise. First window of the day, on a board full of them. Our view: wait for the number rather than the news.

Sunday, October 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Interconference

New York Jets

at

Chicago Bears

Interconference. Worth a win and nothing else, and any conclusion drawn from it should be priced that way. The early window, where the schedule puts games it does not expect to argue about. The obvious side is the popular side, and those are not always the same bet.

Sunday, October 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Conference

Jacksonville Jaguars

at

Cincinnati Bengals

In the conference. It will be a line on a tiebreaker sheet in January and nobody will remember the afternoon. A one o’clock start, one of a crowded slate, which is where an edge is easiest to find and hardest to notice. We would want a reason to be on the favourite here beyond the fact that they are the favourite.

Sunday, October 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Conference

Arizona Cardinals

at

New York Giants

A conference fixture with no return game, so whatever this settles, it settles once. The visitor loses 2 hours flying east, and an early kickoff on the road is the one travel penalty with real evidence behind it. Our view: this is the sort of game people are certain about for no good reason.

Sunday, October 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Conference

Los Angeles Rams

at

Philadelphia Eagles

In conference. No rematch, no head-to-head to settle, just a number in a column that decides a bye in January. 3 time zones east, into an earlier body clock than the one they practised in all week. Our read: the total tells you more about what the books expect than the side does.

Sunday, October 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Conference

Green Bay Packers

at

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Within the conference. It will not look important until two teams finish level. A one o’clock start, one of a crowded slate, which is where an edge is easiest to find and hardest to notice. Our view: the public will be on one side of this by Friday, and that is worth knowing before Sunday.

Sunday, October 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Conference

Tennessee Titans

at

Baltimore Ravens

Conference game, and those are the quiet ones that decide seeding three months later. First window of the day, on a board full of them. Our read: the line that opens is not the line that settles, and the gap is the whole edge.

Sunday, October 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Interconference

Dallas Cowboys

at

Houston Texans

Across conferences, which usually means two unfamiliar teams and a market leaning on reputation to fill the gap. Under a roof that opens when it suits, so the forecast is a choice rather than a condition. We think the honest answer is that this one is close, and close games are where prices get lazy.

Sunday, October 4 · 4:05 PM ET

Interconference

Miami Dolphins

at

Minnesota Vikings

Across the conferences. The result counts once and then stops counting. A closed roof: no wind, no rain, no excuse in either direction. We would leave this alone until the injury report lands.

Sunday, October 4 · 4:25 PM ET

Divisional

Kansas City Chiefs

at

Las Vegas Raiders

Division game. The loser does not just drop one, it hands over the tiebreaker as well. 2 time zones west for the visitor. The body clock reads later than the scoreboard, and that is the friendlier version of this trip. We are interested in this one late, not early.

Sunday, October 4 · 4:25 PM ET

Interconference

Denver Broncos

at

San Francisco 49ers

A non-conference game: the standings feel it, the tiebreakers never do. The four o’clock slot, competing for the same screens as everything else in it. Our view: the number will move more than the matchup warrants.

Sunday, October 4 · 4:25 PM ET

Interconference

Los Angeles Chargers

at

Seattle Seahawks

Out of conference, which is where season-long narratives get built on the least useful evidence. In the late window, which means a full afternoon of results before anyone kicks off. We would rather have the points here than the opinion.

Sunday, October 4 · 8:20 PM ET

Conference

Detroit Lions

at

Carolina Panthers

Conference, not division: no rematch to correct it, which makes the single result heavier than it feels. A standalone night game, so the number moves on opinion all day with nothing else to look at. Our read: this is a total to look at before it is a side.

Monday, October 5 · 8:15 PM ET

Divisional

Atlanta Falcons

at

New Orleans Saints

Division football, which in practice means fewer surprises and smaller margins than the talk suggests. Played indoors under a roof that does not open, so the weather is out of it entirely. Our read: the total tells you more about what the books expect than the side does.