Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Picks and Predictions May 12th 2025

Nationals vs Braves: Bold Predictions and Betting Angles for a Must-Watch NL East Showdown

The Washington Nationals roll into Atlanta Monday night with something to prove—and they might just have the right opponent in their sights. With a five-game losing streak hanging over them, the Nats begin a four-game road series against an Atlanta Braves team that, surprisingly, has been just as inconsistent lately.

Sure, it’s early in the season, but momentum matters. And this matchup? It’s loaded with potential turning points for both franchises.

Before we dig into stats, streaks, and predictions, if you’re looking to make the most informed plays, check out our updated MLB Odds Page and our MLB Expert Betting Guide.

Why This Series Matters

For Washington, the Braves may be the reset button they need. The Nationals actually won the season series against Atlanta last year (8-5)—their first since 2017. That’s no small feat considering how dominant the Braves have been in recent seasons.

Now, the Nats come into this series reeling from a 6-1 beatdown by the Cardinals. The offense has gone quiet, the bullpen’s been shaky, and the urgency is rising. But there’s hope in the form of Jake Irvin, who’s becoming one of the most reliable arms in the rotation.

Meanwhile, the Braves just wrapped up a quick trip to Pittsburgh where they dropped two of three and failed (again) to reach the .500 mark. That’s the fifth failed attempt this year. A lineup packed with names like Olson, Albies, and Riley has just not produced like expected.

Which team bounces back first? Let’s break it down.

Key Pitching Matchup: Jake Irvin vs Grant Holmes

Right-hander Jake Irvin might not be a household name yet, but he’s proving to be a stabilizing force for a young Nationals staff. Irvin enters the game with a 3.94 ERA and has worked at least five innings in every start this season—a level of consistency that managers love.

Even more impressive:

• He has a 1.59 ERA in two starts at Truist Park.
• Lifetime against the Braves: 2-1, 2.77 ERA across five starts.
• Last season: 2-0 vs ATL with an insane 1.16 ERA.

In other words, he owns the Braves.

And Irvin knows his role.
“My game is length,” he said recently. “I try to get as deep as I can for these guys.”

His mental approach and stamina could make the difference in this opener.

Grant Holmes: Big Opportunity, Big Questions

On the mound for the Braves is righty Grant Holmes, who will make his eighth start of the year. The numbers? Not great. He’s sitting on a 4.58 ERA, has lost his last two decisions, and has given up six home runs over his last three starts.

That long ball problem could spell trouble—especially against a Washington lineup looking to snap out of a funk.

Holmes has never started against the Nationals, with just one relief outing last August where he pitched a scoreless frame. So, he’s somewhat of a mystery to the Washington hitters—could be good, or very, very bad.

If you’re betting on pitching matchups, check out our updated metrics on the MLB Pick Page.

Want more pre-game insight like this?

Join our nightly rundown and never miss a key

Get Free Trial

Atlanta’s Offensive Funk: What’s Going On?

Let’s be honest—the Braves’ offense should be terrifying. But lately? It’s been, well… timid.

In their last 11 games:

• They’ve scored 3 or fewer runs in 8 of them.
• Just 8 runs total in their last 3 games.
• Star second baseman Ozzie Albies is 0-for-22.

It’s hard to win when your big names go silent. And that’s what manager Brian Snitker pointed out:

“We can’t wait until the eighth inning and then potentially blow up our bullpen again,” he said.

The question is: will the bats wake up? Or has the league figured something out?

If you’re looking to bet the over/under, pay close attention to team hitting splits available on our MLB Team Page.

Nationals’ Path to Victory

Despite the losing streak, the Nats have some legit reasons to believe this is a winnable series.

Irvin Is Built for This Matchup

We’ve said it already, but Irvin’s past success against Atlanta can’t be overstated. When a pitcher feels confident against a certain opponent, it changes everything—from pitch selection to body language.

They’ve Done It Before

Washington shocked the Braves last year in head-to-heads, going 8-5. Momentum in divisional matchups counts for a lot—especially when confidence is low for both teams.

Braves’ Bats Are Vulnerable

With Albies slumping and other stars underperforming, the Nats can attack the zone without fear. If Irvin holds them down for six or seven, the bullpen just needs to hold steady.

X-Factors to Watch

Keibert Ruiz (Nationals)

If Ruiz can step up offensively, it changes the entire dynamic of the Nats’ lineup. He’s due for a breakout.

Matt Olson (Braves)

He’s been vocal about not caring about the .500 mark—but his bat needs to do more talking. Look for Olson to try to spark the lineup.

Spencer Strider (Braves – Injury Watch)

Though he’s not pitching yet, all eyes are on his rehab. Strider threw a bullpen session Saturday, and manager Snitker said he felt “great.” No return date is set, but this is a critical update for Braves futures bettors.

Betting Insights: Over/Under Trends

Considering the recent offensive drought for both squads, the under might be a smart play in the early games. But don’t sleep on a surprise slugfest in Games 3 or 4 when bullpens could be worn down.

If you’re eyeing bold betting picks, consult our MLB Pick Page for projections and edge metrics.

Series Predictions

So, who’s got the edge?

Game 1 Prediction:
Nationals win a close one behind Irvin’s dominant history vs ATL.

Series Prediction:
Split 2-2, with both teams showing flashes of strength but neither stringing together enough consistency to sweep.

FAQs

Who has the better recent form?

Honestly, neither. The Nationals are on a 5-game skid, and the Braves have failed to reach .500 five times this season.

Is Jake Irvin worth watching?

Absolutely. He’s the sleeper ace for Washington and dominates the Braves more often than not.

Why is Atlanta’s offense struggling?

Slumps, lack of timely hitting, and regression from key stars like Albies and Riley are contributing.

When will Spencer Strider return?

Still TBD. He’s throwing bullpen sessions but no official timeline is confirmed.

What’s the most important game of the series?

Game 1 sets the tone. If Irvin dominates again, Washington may flip the narrative.

Where can I find expert betting breakdowns?

Right here on the Expert Betting Guide for up-to-date wagering tips.

Final Take: A Low-Key Crucial Series

This may not be a postseason preview, but it’s a gut check for both teams. If the Nationals want to avoid a nosedive, they need to steal at least two games. If the Braves want to remind the NL East who’s boss, they’ve got to fix that sluggish offense—fast.

One team gets back on track. The other might spiral further.

Only the next four games will tell.