Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Predictions May 16th 2025

Ace Showdown: Red Sox’s Crochet vs. Braves’ Sale in Fenway Return

When Garrett Crochet takes the mound at Fenway Park on Friday night, he won’t be the only high-octane lefty drawing attention. On the other side, Chris Sale returns to Boston as a member of the Atlanta Braves, bringing his signature fire and emotional intensity to what promises to be a high-energy series opener.

The matchup between Crochet’s Boston Red Sox and Sale’s Atlanta Braves is more than just a game—it’s a story of two dominant arms, one past and one present, with history tying them together in unexpected ways.

With the Red Sox aiming to snap a two-game skid and the Braves building momentum, this clash of aces could be the key to setting the tone for the entire weekend.

Check real-time odds and player props for this elite pitching duel on our MLB Odds Page.

Garrett Crochet: Rising as Boston’s Ace

Garrett Crochet (4-2, 1.93 ERA) has silenced early-season doubts and emerged as one of the most reliable starters in the American League. After a few shaky outings to begin his tenure in Boston, the 26-year-old has allowed just four runs over his last three starts—a stretch that includes 21 strikeouts and only 3 walks.

His latest performance, a seven-inning, one-run gem against the red-hot Kansas City Royals, snapped a seven-game win streak for KC and reminded everyone why Crochet is being called the future of the Red Sox rotation.

“You saw the punch-outs. The action on his pitches was better than the last few starts,” manager Alex Cora said. “That’s what he’s here for.”

Even more encouraging? Crochet has already beaten the Braves once this season. On April 2, he threw seven innings of one-run ball, striking out eight in what was arguably his breakout performance of 2024.

Chris Sale: Returning to Fenway with Fire

Chris Sale (1-3, 3.97 ERA) spent seven seasons in Boston, winning a World Series in 2018 and becoming one of the most feared lefties in the league—when healthy. Now, wearing Braves navy, he returns to the mound at Fenway for the first time since being traded in December 2023.

And he’s pitching as well as he has in years.

Sale has struck out 28 batters over his last 17 1/3 innings, including 10 in six scoreless frames against Boston earlier this month in Atlanta. His velocity is back, his slider is biting, and most importantly, his health is holding.

“I know Garrett is excited about it, and I know Chris is too,” Cora said. “It’s going to be a fun night. Obviously, I hate to face Chris, but it’s what we have.”

Sale has made 11 career appearances vs. the Red Sox, posting a 1.99 ERA and holding Boston to just .188 batting average. And with Bryce Elder now optioned and Spencer Strider still on the mend, Sale’s outings are even more important in keeping Atlanta afloat.

Looking to bet on Sale’s strikeout total or the game total? Find your angle on our MLB Picks Page.

Red Sox Looking to Turn Close Losses into Wins

The Red Sox come into Friday’s game after back-to-back one-run losses against the Detroit Tigers, including a second straight walk-off loss on Wednesday. Boston has now lost five of its last seven by just a single run, with a 4-12 record in one-run games this season.

Reliever Liam Hendriks voiced the team’s growing frustration: “We’re definitely underperforming. A lot of games we should’ve taken. Now it’s about turning those close ones into wins.”

Even with elite defensive plays—like Ceddanne Rafaela’s home run robbery assisted by Wilyer Abreu—the Sox couldn’t close the deal. Friday night offers a chance to reset and ride Crochet’s left arm back into the win column.

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Braves Heating Up Thanks to Young Talent

The Braves, on the other hand, are coming off a 5-2 win to close their series against the Nationals, having taken three of four. Key to that success? The club’s rookie contributors.

Drake Baldwin had a breakout game with three hits and an RBI, while AJ Smith-Shawver allowed just one unearned run across six innings. With veterans like Matt Olson and Ronald Acuña Jr. yet to fully hit their stride, the young core is stepping up at the right time.

“When you develop guys and they come up like this—it’s special,” manager Brian Snitker said. “They’re handling themselves well and keeping us in games.”

What’s at Stake?

Friday night’s matchup is more than just personal storylines—it could be a tone-setter for both teams.

The Red Sox need a spark to avoid slipping further below .500 and losing pace in the AL East. With a grueling stretch ahead, a statement win against Sale and the Braves would be a massive confidence boost.

For Atlanta, keeping pace in the NL East without Spencer Strider will require every quality start they can get. With no off days in sight, Sale will be leaned on heavily.

Track win probability, team stats, and more insights on our MLB Team Page.

Key Stats and Betting Trends

• Crochet: 4-2, 1.93 ERA, 58 K, 10 BB in 51.1 IP
• Sale: 1-3, 3.97 ERA, 51 K, 9 BB in 43.0 IP
• Boston is 4-12 in one-run games this season
• Atlanta has won 3 of its last 4 games
• Red Sox have lost 3 straight home series openers
• Braves are 5-2 in games started by Sale

FAQs

Who is pitching in Friday’s game between Boston and Atlanta?
Garrett Crochet for the Red Sox vs. Chris Sale for the Braves.

What is Chris Sale’s career ERA against Boston?
1.99 ERA in 11 appearances.

Has Crochet faced the Braves before?
Yes. On April 2, he beat Atlanta with seven innings of one-run ball.

How have the Red Sox performed in one-run games?
They are 4-12 this season in games decided by a single run.

Is Spencer Strider returning soon?
Yes, the Braves expect Strider back during their next series in Washington.

Where can I find picks and prop bets for this game?
Head to our MLB Picks Page for expert analysis and projections.