Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals Picks and Predictions May 16th 2025

Slumping Nationals, Orioles Desperately Seeking Offensive Spark

The Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles are neighboring teams, but they’ve got something else in common heading into their interleague showdown this weekend: ice-cold bats and mounting frustration.

The three-game series opens Friday night at Camden Yards, where both clubs hope to rediscover their offensive rhythm. The Orioles have lost nine of their last 11, while the Nationals have dropped eight of their last nine. Their collective lack of runs has defined this stretch of baseball as much as any pitching missteps or defensive miscues.

Follow the latest betting lines and run totals on our MLB Baseball Odds Page.

Orioles’ Offense in a Freefall

Baltimore’s skid hit a new low this week when they were swept at home by the Minnesota Twins, who blanked them 4-0 in Thursday’s finale. Across the three-game set, the Orioles scored in only two innings and looked completely out of sync at the plate.

“It’s not fun,” said Orioles first baseman Ryan O’Hearn. “Nobody in here is having a good time… but we have to keep fighting. There is no other option.”

The Orioles have now been shut out six times this season. Even manager Brandon Hyde acknowledged how unbalanced their approach has been. “A lot of our guys are in between right now—late on fastballs, ahead of off-speed,” he said. “That’s a tough combo.”

Baltimore was one of the most feared young offenses last season. But now, they’re struggling to generate even base traffic, much less crooked numbers.

Nationals’ Struggles Nearly Identical

The Nationals’ numbers are just as brutal. In their latest series against the Atlanta Braves, they managed only two runs in Thursday’s 5-2 loss, continuing a trend of futility at the plate.

They’ve scored more than two runs just twice in their last seven games, and have batted below .200 with runners in scoring position during that stretch.

On Thursday, they had 10 consecutive batters retired at one point, and went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position.

Still, some on the team are finding silver linings. Trevor Williams, who pitched Thursday, said he sees value in being competitive against a team like the Braves.

“We’re going to take the positives from this series and carry them into Baltimore,” he said.

Previous Meeting: Nationals Held the Edge

These two teams met last month in Washington, and surprisingly, the Nationals took two of the three games. Pitching was the difference, with MacKenzie Gore throwing six strong innings despite a loss, and Washington’s bullpen holding Baltimore to just two runs over the final two contests.

Washington is looking to replicate that effort, but they’ll need more than pitching this time around—they’ll need actual run support.

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Friday’s Pitching Matchup: Gore vs. Povich

The opener will feature a rematch from that April series:

• MacKenzie Gore (2-4, 3.59 ERA) will start for Washington. He’s been consistently solid, striking out at least six in seven straight outings, but he’s winless in his last four. Gore is 0-2 with a 3.75 ERA in two career starts vs. the Orioles.
• Cade Povich (1-3, 5.55 ERA) gets the nod for Baltimore. He hasn’t pitched since May 6, when he allowed five runs over six innings in a loss to Minnesota. Povich did beat the Nationals on April 24, tossing 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball.

Looking for player prop picks on Gore’s strikeout total? Explore our Expert MLB Betting Guide for over/unders and strikeout odds.

Lineup Shifts: Nationals Await Return of Garcia

Washington has played the last few games without infielder Luis Garcia Jr., who was on the paternity list. The lineup has looked thin in his absence, though he is expected back for the Baltimore series.

In the meantime, Jose Tena has shifted between second and third base. While he’s held his own defensively, the offense has missed Garcia’s spark near the top of the lineup.

“I know I’m going to play a little more third here,” Tena said. “But I also need to be ready for second.”

For updated lineup projections, injury reports, and player availability, visit our MLB Team Page.

What’s at Stake This Weekend?

Neither team is in playoff position, but make no mistake: this series matters. Both clubs are in danger of letting the season spiral out of control. A sweep either way could be the difference between a midseason bounce-back or a full-on rebuild reset.

Baltimore is trying to find the offensive identity that made them dangerous last season, while Washington is simply looking to string together some consistency after a few competitive weeks in April.

Key Stats and Trends

• Nationals have scored two runs or fewer in 5 of their last 7 games.
• Orioles have been shut out 6 times, including Thursday’s 4-0 loss.
• Gore has 48 strikeouts in his last 32 innings pitched.
• Baltimore is hitting just .201 over the last 10 games.
• Washington is 2-5 on the road in May.
• Cade Povich earned his only win of the season vs. the Nationals on April 24.

FAQs

Who is pitching Friday for the Nationals and Orioles?
MacKenzie Gore (WAS) vs. Cade Povich (BAL) in a rematch from April.

How have the Nationals been performing offensively?
They’ve scored more than two runs just twice in their last seven games.

What’s wrong with the Orioles’ offense?
They’re missing on both fastballs and breaking pitches—Hyde says hitters are “in between” at the plate.

Is Luis Garcia Jr. returning?
Yes, the Nationals expect him back from paternity leave for this series.

Who won the last series between these teams?
The Nationals took 2 of 3 from the Orioles in April.

Where can I find betting predictions and props for this series?
Check out our MLB Picks Page for expert breakdowns and model-driven predictions.