Usc Trojans vs Michigan State Spartans Picks and Predictions September 20th 2025

No. 25 USC defends home turf against Michigan State in Big Ten showdown

The USC Trojans aim to protect their national ranking and unbeaten record when they host the Michigan State Spartans at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday night. Both teams enter 3-0, but while USC has cruised with high-powered offense and opportunistic defense, Michigan State is looking to prove it can compete on the road after a soft nonconference slate. For bettors weighing college football picks, this Big Ten clash highlights depth, quarterback play, and travel dynamics.

Betting Odds and Trends

The Michigan State Spartans Can Win If…

The Michigan State Spartans need quarterback Aiden Chiles to stay efficient. Chiles has completed 71.6% of his throws for 664 yards and six touchdowns, keeping the offense on schedule. Against USC’s secondary, limiting turnovers will be critical. If Chiles can sustain drives with short-to-intermediate passing and keep the Trojan pass rush honest, Michigan State can control tempo.

The Spartans’ defense must also step up against USC’s balanced attack. Through three games, USC is averaging over 40 points, with Jayden Maiava and the running back duo of Waymond Jordan and Eli Sanders producing balance. Michigan State must win at the line of scrimmage, particularly against the run, to force Maiava into obvious passing downs.

Finally, depth will be tested. Last year, Michigan State started 3-0 before collapsing once Big Ten play began. Coach Jonathan Smith emphasized progress, but for the Spartans to avoid another midseason slide, special teams execution and mistake-free football will be essential.

The USC Trojans Can Win If…

The USC Trojans will lean on quarterback Jayden Maiava, who has thrown for 615 yards and six touchdowns while completing nearly 69% of his passes. His chemistry with wideout Makai Lemon (311 yards) gives USC explosive potential. If Maiava continues to spread the ball and protect it, USC’s offense should move the chains consistently.

USC’s rushing attack has also proven reliable. Jordan and Sanders combined for 152 yards against Purdue, complementing Maiava’s passing game. If the Trojans dominate time of possession and sustain balance, they’ll stretch Michigan State’s defense thin.

Defensively, USC must avoid breakdowns in coverage. Jamaal Jarrett’s 70-yard interception return against Purdue highlighted their ability to swing momentum. If the Trojans’ secondary forces Chiles into mistakes while their front pressures the pocket, USC will defend its ranking comfortably.

The Lean

USC is favored by 10.5 at home, and their recent dominance at the Coliseum makes them the safer side. Michigan State’s defense has yet to be tested at this level, and their collapse last year after Week 3 remains a concern. A projected score of 34-20 supports USC -10.5.

The total sits at 55.5, and both offenses have shown the ability to score. However, Michigan State’s offense may slow down against USC’s speed on defense, while the Trojans lean on their ground game. The projection of 54 points slightly favors the under.

Game Preview Recap

This game highlights the new-look Big Ten’s quirks, with a late West Coast kickoff stretching past midnight for Michigan State fans back in East Lansing. Travel and time zone adjustments could impact the Spartans, who are playing their first road game of the season.

For USC, the goal is to maintain momentum. Lincoln Riley’s squad handled Missouri State, Georgia Southern, and Purdue with ease, combining high-output offense with timely defensive plays. Maiava’s comfort level has grown weekly, and Lemon has emerged as a go-to weapon in the passing game.

Michigan State, meanwhile, is aiming to prove last year’s midseason collapse won’t repeat. Smith has rebuilt depth, and Chiles has settled into his role, but this will be the Spartans’ toughest test yet. Limiting Hardy’s USC rushing attack and handling the Coliseum crowd will be challenges.

The last time these programs met was in 1990, with USC holding the all-time edge 5-4. Saturday renews the series under new conference ties, with both teams trying to prove they belong in the Big Ten’s upper half.

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