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Mets vs Marlins Betting Preview
The New York Mets (82-78) enter Saturday in survival mode. Friday’s 6-2 loss to Miami, combined with a Reds win, pushed New York to the brink in the National League wild-card race. Cincinnati now controls its fate, leaving the Mets with no margin for error.
Miami (78-82) is out of playoff contention but has embraced the spoiler role. Manager Clayton McCullough made it clear the Marlins would “love nothing more than to have the Mets watching games next week from the same place we will be.” That mindset showed Friday as Connor Norby homered and the Marlins claimed their sixth win against New York this season.
Clay Holmes (11-8, 3.66 ERA) will start for the Mets. Converted from reliever to starter this year, Holmes carried a 2.87 ERA into mid-June but has posted a 4.43 ERA since. Eury Pérez (7-5, 4.20 ERA) starts for Miami, though he’s been battered by New York before, giving up 17 runs in two career starts.
For updated numbers, see the full MLB odds page
Line Movement and Odds
Markets opened with the Mets around –125 and the Marlins near +105. The total has held steady at 8.5 runs, with money split nearly evenly on both sides.
- Moneyline: Mets –125, Marlins +105
- Run line: Mets –1.5 (+130), Marlins +1.5 (–156)
- Total: 8.5 (Over –112, Under –109)
Public money is leaning toward New York given its desperation, while sharper bettors have grabbed Miami at plus money. For deeper insight on market angles, check the expert MLB betting guide
Matchup Breakdown
New York Mets:
The lineup remains the key weapon. Pete Alonso and Juan Soto anchor a group ranked top five in both slugging and on-base percentage. Francisco Lindor added a home run Friday, showing the Mets still have power to lean on. The concern is pitching depth. Injuries to Kodai Senga, Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill, Frankie Montas, and Paul Blackburn have left the rotation in disarray. Holmes has carried more innings than expected, and the bullpen is overexposed.
Miami Marlins:
The Marlins thrive on contact hitting and speed. They rank 8th in batting average (.251) and 7th in stolen bases (135). Norby’s bat has provided late-season energy, and Xavier Edwards remains consistent at the plate. Perez has electric stuff, but his command issues make him vulnerable against disciplined Mets hitters. If he settles in, Miami’s bullpen has the strikeout ability to flip momentum.
For complete matchup data, visit the MLB game previews section
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Injuries and Conditions
New York Mets injury report:
- Brett Baty (oblique) day-to-day.
- Multiple rotation arms remain sidelined: Senga, Canning, Megill, Montas, Blackburn.
Miami Marlins injury report:
- Dane Myers (knee) on 10-day IL.
- Kyle Stowers (oblique) on 10-day IL.
- Ryan Gusto (shoulder) on 15-day IL.
- Jesus Tinoco (forearm) on 60-day IL.
- Braxton Garrett (elbow) on 60-day IL.
See the full Mets injury report and Marlins injury report for updates.
Weather won’t factor in with the retractable roof at loanDepot Park.
Best Bets and Prediction
The Mets are 5th in MLB in home runs and on-base percentage, while the Marlins counter with small-ball efficiency. Holmes has steadier recent form than Perez, and desperation tilts this matchup toward New York.
- Projection: Mets 5, Marlins 3
- Best Bet: Mets moneyline (–125)
- Secondary Lean: Under 8.5 (–109)
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