No. 24 South Florida Bulls vs North Texas Mean Green Game Preview
Two of the American Conference’s surprise contenders meet Friday night in Denton as No. 24 South Florida visits undefeated North Texas. Both programs have rebuilt fast under rising coaches — Alex Golesh at USF and Eric Morris at UNT — and this matchup could determine who emerges as the AAC’s new power.
Line Movement and Odds
Week 7 of the 2025 college football schedule brings a prime-time AAC battle as No. 24 USF (4-1, 1-0) takes on North Texas (5-0, 1-0) at DATCU Stadium in Denton, Texas. Kickoff is set for Friday, October 10, at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN2.
The line opened near even, with USF a slight −1.0 favorite, and total points holding firm at 67.5. Early public money has leaned toward the over, expecting another high-octane AAC matchup.
Current odds:
- Moneyline: South Florida −114 / North Texas −106
- Spread: South Florida −1.0 (−110) / North Texas +1.0 (−110)
- Total: Over 67.5 (−110) / Under 67.5 (−110)
Follow live movement and market updates on the NCAAF scores and odds board.
Matchup Breakdown
South Florida enters ranked for the first time in years, riding a dominant rushing attack that piled up 407 ground yards in a 54-26 rout of Charlotte. Dual-threat QB Byrum Brown leads the team in both passing (1,194 yards, 10 TDs) and rushing (282 yards, 3 TDs). The Bulls are 30th nationally in scoring and top-15 in both sacks and interceptions — a rare combination of pressure and opportunism.
North Texas has been one of the country’s biggest surprises, off to a 5-0 start for the first time since 1959. Under coach Eric Morris, the Mean Green have traded their usual air raid for balance, led by RBs Caleb Hawkins (307 yards, 7 TDs) and Makenzie McGill II (318 yards, 4 TDs). QB Drew Mestemaker has complemented the rushing game with mistake-free play, while UNT’s defense ranks top-five nationally in both interceptions and fumble recoveries.
The winner of this game takes early control of the AAC race. View detailed team metrics and rosters on the NCAAF teams page.
Injuries and Conditions
South Florida
- WR Khafre Brown (hamstring) questionable.
- OL Demetrius Harris (knee) expected to play.
- No major defensive absences reported.
North Texas
- DB Ridge Texada (ankle) questionable.
- LB Nick Brown (concussion protocol) out.
- Otherwise near full strength entering Week 7.
Weather forecast: clear skies and mid-70s temperatures in Denton — fast track conditions ideal for offensive fireworks.
Best Bets and Prediction
Both teams excel at running the football and pushing tempo. USF’s defensive front has the edge in pressure rate, while UNT’s home-field advantage could keep this tight into the fourth quarter. Expect a shootout.
- Spread lean: South Florida −1.0 — the Bulls have covered in 7 of their last 8 as favorites.
- Total lean: Over 67.5 — both teams average over 35 PPG and play at top-25 pace.
- Projected Final: South Florida 38, North Texas 35.
For deeper AAC wagering insight, check the expert betting guide.
Betting Summary
Category | Detail |
---|---|
Best Bet | South Florida −1.0 (−110) |
Confidence Rating | ★★★★☆ |
Projected Score | South Florida 38 – North Texas 35 |
Total Lean | Over 67.5 (−110) |
Market Split | 52% bets USF, 61% money Over (public chasing points) |
Handicappers and Service Plays
Both programs are 4-1 ATS this season, with bettors split on the side but united on the total. Consensus service plays lean toward Over 67.5, with a slight majority backing the Bulls to stay hot.
Compare verified expert picks and service performance on the college football picks page and the best handicappers leaderboard before making your move.



