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Table of Contents
Match Facts
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Matchup | Indiana State Sycamores vs Illinois State Redbirds |
| Date | Sunday, December 21, 2025 |
| Venue | CEFCU Arena |
| Location | Normal, Illinois |
| Game type | Missouri Valley Conference game |
| Broadcast | ESPN+ |
| Records | Indiana State: 7-5 |
| Home/Road split | Indiana State away: 2-3 |
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Stats That Turn Insight Into Profit
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Line and Odds
| Market | Indiana State | Illinois State |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +12.5 (-110) | -12.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +600 | -900 |
| Total | 149.5 (-110) | 149.5 (-110) |
Movement Matchup
Illinois State is being priced like a dominant home team, and the 7-0 home record supports that. The question at -12.5 is whether Indiana State’s offense can keep producing through runs, because MVC games often tighten late and large spreads become more fragile if the favorite shifts into clock-control.
The key range is 12–14. If this number climbs, Indiana State becomes more attractive because one cold stretch from the favorite or late bench minutes can flip a cover. For the total, 149.5 is asking both teams to live in the high 70s. Indiana State’s interior efficiency helps, but if the game turns into half-court possessions in the second half, the under gets safer.
For general spread/total frameworks and key-number discipline, use the betting guide.
Breakdown Injury Reports
Indiana State
| Player | Position | Status | Impact note |
|---|---|---|---|
| None | N/A | No major injuries reported | No expected rotation limitation |
Illinois State
| Player | Position | Status | Impact note |
|---|---|---|---|
| None | N/A | No major injuries reported | No expected rotation limitation |
Indiana State Recent performance
Indiana State is coming off a track meet loss to Bradley (108-99), which highlighted both their scoring ability and their defensive leakiness. Ian Scott delivered 24 points and 12 rebounds, with Camp Wagner (21) and Derek Vorst (17) providing secondary scoring that kept the offense functional for long stretches.
The Sycamores average 77.3 points per game and are elite inside, shooting 58.9% on twos. They can also manufacture points with perimeter volume (8.6 made threes per game), which is important when you’re catching this many points. The road record (2-3) isn’t strong, but their scoring profile gives them a path to stay within the number if they avoid empty possessions.
Illinois State Recent performance
Illinois State comes in off a 75-68 win over Southern Illinois with Ty Pence leading the way (22). Chase Walker added 15 points and seven rebounds, and the Redbirds shot 49.2% in a game they largely controlled.
At home, Illinois State has been perfect (7-0) and the offense has been efficient: 80.7 points per game on 48.9% shooting. Pence and Johnny Kinziger are the primary scorers, and Pence’s three-point efficiency adds a quick-strike element that can break open a spread if Indiana State loses him in transition or on kick-outs.
Betting Insights and Trends
The spread is inflated because of the home dominance, but conference familiarity tends to compress margins. Indiana State’s strength is that they don’t need an outlier shooting night to score; their two-point efficiency gives them a stable baseline, and their threes add volatility that favors the underdog covering.
Illinois State’s cover path is simple: win the shot quality battle early, avoid turnovers, and keep Indiana State from getting comfortable touches inside. If the Redbirds build a lead and control pace late, it also increases the probability of the under, since big spreads often slow in the final 8–10 minutes.
For team context and comparisons across the slate, the NCAAB teams hub is the fastest reference point.
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Best Bets and Prediction
Best bet: Indiana State +12.5 (-110)
Projected score: Illinois State 82, Indiana State 74
The model total implies over (156), but the spread-and-script risk is real. If Illinois State plays from in front and drains clock late, 149.5 becomes a tough number to clear without an unusually efficient shooting night.
Handicapper section
One pick is fine. Tracking who consistently beats the market is better. Check the handicapper leaderboard to sort by profit and ROI, then follow the top performers into today’s slate.
