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Broncos vs Aztecs Picks and Predictions – Saturday January 3, 2026
Boise State heads to San Diego for a Mountain West matchup at Viejas Arena on Saturday night, with tip set for 10:00 PM ET on CBSS. The Broncos enter at 9-4 and they have looked comfortable grinding games into half-court possessions, especially when they are getting to the line and owning the glass.
San Diego State is 8-4 and has been much better at home, where the Aztecs are playing with confidence and spacing. The market has them favored by 3.5, and that number tells you this is expected to be a physical, possession-by-possession game more than a track meet.
Boise State Broncos vs San Diego State Aztecs Odds
These are the current betting lines, and bettors should monitor the latest college basketball odds as the number can move closer to tip.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State Broncos | +141 | +3.5 (-110) | 137.5 |
| San Diego State Aztecs | -169 | -3.5 (-110) | 137.5 |
Boise State Broncos Betting Form
Boise State is built to travel because the offense does not rely on perfect shooting nights. The Broncos just beat New Mexico 62-53 by doing the basics well, limiting clean looks, finishing possessions, and getting enough creation to avoid long scoring droughts. That style is valuable as an underdog, especially in conference play where the whistle and the pace tend to tighten.
From a betting perspective, I like how Boise can keep games within a number like +3.5. They get to the line at a strong clip, and that matters late when you are protecting points and the favorite is forced to defend without fouling. If this becomes a free throw game in the final two minutes, the dog is live to cover even without a great field goal night. You can track recent trends and results on the Boise State Broncos stats and results.
San Diego State Aztecs Betting Form
San Diego State’s ceiling is obvious when the threes are dropping. The Aztecs are averaging 81.9 points per game with efficient shooting, and the 39.7% mark from deep is a real weapon in a matchup where Boise is going to make you earn points over multiple actions. They just handled San Jose State 81-68, and that kind of clean scoring output is what you want to see when you are laying points.
Home court is doing work here. Viejas Arena games tend to feel heavy, and San Diego State is clearly more comfortable controlling tempo and dictating matchups at home. The risk for spread bettors is that Boise’s physicality can shorten the game, and short games make it harder for a favorite to create margin unless it is also creating turnovers. For broader context on performance and splits, use the San Diego State Aztecs schedule and stats.
Boise State Broncos vs San Diego State Aztecs Matchup Breakdown
This matchup usually comes down to shot quality versus shot volume. San Diego State wants clean catch-and-shoot looks and rhythm threes, while Boise is comfortable living in a lower-possession game where every defensive stop is followed by a patient half-court trip. If the Broncos control pace and avoid live-ball turnovers, +3.5 becomes attractive because it turns into a late, one or two possession game.
Rebounding and free throws are the dog’s lifelines here. Boise’s ability to extend possessions with offensive boards, or at least keep San Diego State off second-chance runs, matters more than raw shooting percentages. On the other side, the Aztecs can punish over-help with threes, and that’s the one area where a game can flip quickly even if the pace is slow.
Late-game fouling is a big factor with a number this tight. If San Diego State is protecting a small lead, they have to close without putting Boise on the stripe repeatedly. If Boise is down one or two possessions late, they have the profile you want for a backdoor cover: free throws, rebounds, and enough composure to get a clean look without panicking. If you want a quick framework for how I’m weighing those factors, the expert betting guide is useful for thinking about pace, end-game variance, and how totals interact with spread outcomes.
Boise State Broncos vs San Diego State Aztecs Predictions and Best Bets
My strongest lean is Boise State +3.5. The market is basically saying San Diego State is a little better and gets home court, but Boise’s travel-ready style makes it hard to separate. The Broncos can keep this game in the mud, and in a game that projects as a one-possession finish, I would rather hold points.
On the total, 137.5 is interesting. The raw scoring averages scream over, but conference games at Viejas can play slower and more physical than those averages suggest. San Diego State can still carry the over with threes, but if Boise is deliberate and the Aztecs are forced into half-court possessions for long stretches, this total is not a layup.
If you are looking for a clean bet rather than trying to thread the needle on tempo, the spread is the sharper angle. Boise does not need to win to cash, it just needs to stay connected, and their free throw and rebounding profile supports that.
Best Bet: Boise State Broncos +3.5 (-110)
NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
If you are building a full Saturday card, start with the college basketball picks page and then compare matchup angles in the NCAAB previews hub. I also like using the NCAAB teams hub to bounce between team pages quickly when you are checking recent results and venue splits.
For bettors who want accountability and performance tracking, the best handicappers section and the leaderboard help you identify who is actually beating the market. If you want packaged plays for the slate, you can browse options on buy picks, and if you are comparing services, the handicappers sites reviews and sportsbook reviews pages are useful reference points. For more strategy content and betting concepts, the main Scores And Stats blog is a good place to round out your approach.
