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Southern Illinois vs Indiana State Picks and Predictions – Monday February 9, 2026
Southern Illinois and Indiana State meet Monday night at the Hulman Center in a Missouri Valley Conference game that looks priced about right. Both teams sit at 10-14, and the market is basically calling this a coin flip with Indiana State laying just 1.5 at home. It’s the kind of number that forces you to decide whether you trust the home floor and efficiency edge, or whether you’re buying the dog in a short spread spot.
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This one sets up as a tempo and shot-quality tug of war. Indiana State’s best path is clean looks inside the arc and ball movement that keeps Southern Illinois rotating. The Salukis’ best path is to make this more physical, win the glass, and turn possessions into second chances or free throws. ESPN+ has the stream at 7:00 PM ET, and the total at 145.5 tells you oddsmakers expect scoring, not a grinder.
Southern Illinois is coming off a 91-81 loss to Murray State, while Indiana State just handled Evansville 84-63. Recent form points slightly to the Sycamores, but the Salukis have been competitive enough that a short number feels playable either way.
Southern Illinois vs Indiana State Odds
These are current betting lines, and you should keep an eye on the latest college basketball odds at Scores and Odds for NCAAB as the market tightens closer to tip.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Illinois | -108 | +1.5 (-119) | 145.5 |
| Indiana State | -116 | -1.5 (-106) | 145.5 |
Southern Illinois Betting Form
Southern Illinois has enough offensive competency to hang in most MVC games, and the 74.0 points per game with a 46.0% field goal rate is not empty production. The issue is consistency. When the Salukis get loose with defensive rebounding or allow clean paint touches, they force themselves into shootouts where a few empty trips swing the entire cover.
The matchup angle that matters is the glass. Southern Illinois averaging 37.6 rebounds per game gives them a path to steal possessions, especially if Indiana State gets comfortable and starts watching shots instead of finishing defensive possessions. If the Salukis can turn missed shots into extra looks and keep Indiana State out of transition, they stay live for both the spread and the moneyline.
If you want the broader snapshot on splits and game logs, the cleanest reference is the Southern Illinois stats and results page. From a betting lens, Southern Illinois profiles as the team that can look great for six-minute stretches, then give it back with a rough stretch of defensive execution.
Indiana State Betting Form
Indiana State’s edge in this matchup is offensive structure. They have the look of a team that can generate quality attempts without relying on one guy going nuclear, and the 17.9 assists per game backs that up. When the Sycamores are right, you see it in shot quality: quick decisions, touches in the paint, and a steady flow of catch-and-shoot chances when defenses collapse.
The home angle matters here because Indiana State is 7-5 at Hulman Center. That’s not dominant, but it’s enough to respect in a game lined close to pick’em. Their 46.9% field goal rate and elite 2-point percentage (59.5%) is the clearest indicator of how they want to score. They’re not trying to win a math war from deep. They want to win the paint and force you to guard multiple actions.
For schedule context and recent results, use the Indiana State schedule and stats page. From a wagering perspective, Indiana State is the side you back when you expect them to control shot selection and avoid the turnover spikes that flip small spreads.
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Southern Illinois vs Indiana State Matchup Breakdown
This number sits where it does because the teams are similar in raw scoring, but they get there differently. Indiana State wants efficient two-point scoring and ball movement, while Southern Illinois can live on physicality and second-chance opportunities. If the Sycamores hold their defensive rebounding shape, they remove the Salukis’ easiest “steal possessions” route.
Tempo is the next lever. A 145.5 total implies steady pace and decent efficiency. Indiana State’s assist profile suggests they can play fast without playing sloppy, and that’s usually what pushes totals over. Southern Illinois can score, but if they’re forced into half-court possessions late in the clock, they’re more likely to settle into tough twos that kill an over.
Turnovers and free throws are where variance shows up. In a short spread game, one three-minute stretch of live-ball turnovers can swing both the side and the total. If Southern Illinois gets to the line and turns this into a whistle-heavy game, the +1.5 looks better and the over stays in play because the clock stops and points come in bunches.
If you want a refresher on how to evaluate totals, pace, and efficiency without overreacting to a single box score, the Expert Betting Guide is useful as a quick framework before you lock in a side.
Southern Illinois vs Indiana State Predictions and Best Bets
I lean Indiana State -1.5, but it’s not a “lay it and forget it” spot. The Sycamores’ biggest edge is that their offense is more repeatable. They can get to good looks through passing and interior efficiency, and that’s exactly the profile you want when you’re laying a small number at home.
Southern Illinois is live because the matchup gives them a clear win condition: rebound, extend possessions, and keep Indiana State from playing comfortably. If the Salukis are winning the glass early, the dog becomes the right side fast. But if Indiana State is finishing defensive possessions cleanly and keeping Southern Illinois to one shot, the Sycamores should be the team playing from in front.
On the total, I’m slightly toward the over at 145.5 based on how both teams score when things are stable. Indiana State can manufacture efficient points inside the arc, Southern Illinois can contribute enough offense to keep the scoreboard moving, and a close game adds late free throws and end-game possessions that can push an over across the number.
Best Bet: Indiana State -1.5
NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
If you’re playing this one, it’s worth cross-checking the market consensus with the college basketball picks page, then seeing how it fits with what the strongest long-term performers are doing on the best handicappers hub. Small-spread games in conference play often come down to one or two repeatable edges, not vibes.
For tracking who’s actually been beating the market, the handicappers leaderboard is the fastest filter. If you want packaged cards rather than piecemeal plays, buy picks is the direct path.
If you’re building a wider slate, the NCAAB previews hub helps keep context across matchups, and the college basketball teams hub is useful when you’re comparing profiles across a conference card. For extra angle hunting, the main ScoresAndStats blog is where trend-based ideas usually show up first, and the sportsbook reviews plus the handicappers sites reviews pages help when you’re deciding where to shop numbers and which services are actually worth tracking.
