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The eyes of the college basketball world turn to West Lafayette tonight as the #7 Purdue Boilermakers (21-5) host their arch-rivals, the Indiana Hoosiers (17-9), in a high-stakes Big Ten clash. Tip-off is set for 8:00 PM ET on FOX at a sold-out Mackey Arena, where the Boilermakers have been nearly invincible this season with a 13-3 home record. Purdue enters as a 10.5-point favorite, but after a recent 91-80 stumble at Michigan, they’ll be looking to reassert their dominance in the conference standings.
Indiana, meanwhile, is searching for a statement road win after a frustrating 71-51 loss to Illinois. Despite the inconsistent road form (3-6), the Hoosiers have the offensive firepower to make things interesting, led by scoring sensation Lamar Wilkerson, who recently put up 21 points in Champaign. This is the second meeting of the season; Indiana took the first matchup 77-73 in Bloomington back in January, adding an extra layer of “revenge” narrative to tonight’s atmosphere at Mackey.
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Indiana vs Purdue Odds
The betting lines for tonight’s rivalry game show a heavy lean toward the home team. Monitor the latest Big Ten odds for any late movement before the 8:00 PM tip.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Indiana | +450 | +10.5 (-112) | O 148.5 (-110) |
| Purdue | -662 | -10.5 (-114) | U 148.5 (-114) |
Indiana Hoosiers Betting Form
Indiana’s success tonight hinges on their perimeter shooting and the health of their backcourt. They rank 46th nationally in three-pointers made (10.2 per game), a clip they’ll likely need to maintain to keep pace with Purdue’s offense. Lamar Wilkerson has been the primary engine, but the Hoosiers have also relied on the rebounding presence of Sam Alexis, who recently tallied 11 points and 8 boards against Illinois. You can track their season trends on the Indiana Hoosiers stats and results page.
The Hoosiers have faced significant adversity away from Bloomington, but their 79.1% free-throw percentage suggests they are a disciplined team that can take advantage of whistles in a hostile environment. However, the Indiana injury report is a concern; with guard Tayton Conerway recently returning from an ankle injury, his efficiency and ability to handle Purdue’s defensive pressure will be vital. Forward Tucker DeVries also needs to find his rhythm after a quiet outing last week.
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Form
Purdue remains one of the most efficient offenses in the country, ranking 17th in effective field goal percentage (57.3%). While the recent loss to Michigan was a setback, senior forward Trey Kaufman-Renn was a bright spot, dominating with 27 points and 12 rebounds. Point guard Braden Smith continues to be the floor general, averaging nearly 9 assists per game. For a look at how they’ve historically fared as double-digit home favorites, visit the Purdue Boilermakers schedule and stats page.
The Boilermakers’ strength lies in their versatility; they shoot 37.5% from deep while ranking 21st in overall field goal percentage. This balance makes them incredibly difficult to defend at Mackey Arena, where the crowd noise often forces road teams into uncharacteristic mistakes. According to the Purdue injury report, the roster is largely healthy, allowing Matt Painter to use his full rotation to keep the defensive pressure high on Indiana’s shooters.
Indiana vs Purdue Matchup Breakdown
This game is a battle of styles: Indiana’s high-volume three-point shooting against Purdue’s methodical, high-efficiency interior and perimeter balance. Purdue’s home-court advantage is legendary, with the Boilermakers holding a 92.3% win rate at Mackey since 2021. Indiana’s effective field goal percentage (55.9%) shows they can score, but doing so against a Purdue defense that allows just 69.5 points per game at home is a different challenge.
The turnover battle will be crucial. Purdue is one of the best in the nation at protecting the ball (9.2 per game), while Indiana has struggled with giveaways on the road. If the Hoosiers can limit empty possessions and capitalize on second-chance points via Sam Alexis, they can prevent the game from getting away early. For more context on Big Ten road underdogs, check out our NCAAB betting guide.
Indiana vs Purdue Predictions and Best Bets
While Purdue is the dominant force at home, 10.5 points is a significant spread in a rivalry game where Indiana has already proven they can win the matchup this season. Indiana’s elite free-throw shooting and three-point volume provide a “backdoor” cover opportunity even if Purdue leads throughout. Purdue likely wins the game straight up to maintain their top-10 ranking, but expect the Hoosiers to keep it within single digits.
Regarding the total, the Under 148.5 offers the best value. Both teams prefer a slightly slower pace (averaging around 65-66 possessions per game), and the intensity of a rivalry matchup often leads to more physical defense and longer offensive sets.
Best Bet: Indiana +10.5 (-112)
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NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
Rivalry games in the Big Ten often defy logic, which is why following expert analysis is key. See how the pros are playing tonight’s slate by visiting today’s college basketball picks. Our handicapper leaderboard lets you track specialists who have a history of success with Big Ten matchups.
Whether you’re looking for free NCAAB picks or want to invest in premium picks from top sports handicappers, ScoresAndStats provides the transparency and data needed to bet with confidence.
