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The Cincinnati Reds visit the Chicago Cubs on Thursday afternoon at Wrigley Field, with first pitch scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET. This is the finale of a four-game NL Central series, and it has been a brutal few days for Cincinnati. The Reds have dropped the first three games of the series, all in walk-off fashion, and now need to stop the bleeding before leaving Chicago.
Cincinnati comes in at 20-17 and fourth in the NL Central, but that record does not feel nearly as strong after six straight losses. The Reds have dropped eight of their last 10, and the bullpen has been right in the middle of the damage. Chicago is 25-12, leading the division, and has won eight straight overall. The Cubs have also won 14 straight games at Wrigley Field, which is not something bettors can just brush off.
The game will air on WSTR, and the market has Chicago priced as a strong home favorite behind Shota Imanaga against Rhett Lowder. The Cubs are hot, the Reds are fragile late in games, and this matchup has one of the sharper starter gaps on the MLB game previews board.
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Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Odds
These are the current betting lines for Reds vs Cubs, and bettors should always monitor updated latest MLB odds before locking in a position.
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | +164 | +1.5 (-124) | O 8.5 (-110) |
| Chicago Cubs | -197 | -1.5 (+104) | U 8.5 (-110) |
Cincinnati Reds Betting Form
The Reds are not playing dead offensively. That is the strange part. They scored six runs Wednesday, got homers from Matt McLain and Spencer Steer, and still found a way to lose. Cincinnati also has real power, ranking near the top of the league in home runs, with Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, McLain, Steer, and others capable of changing a game quickly.
The problem is late-game trust. Emilio Pagán is now out with a hamstring injury, and the bullpen has already blown multiple chances in this series. Pierce Johnson, Caleb Ferguson, and several other arms are also unavailable, which leaves Cincinnati in a tough spot if Rhett Lowder cannot give them length. That matters even more at Wrigley, where the Cubs have been relentless late.
Lowder gets the start, and he needs a reset after getting hit hard by Pittsburgh last weekend. He allowed eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in that outing, which is the kind of start that can carry over mentally if the first inning gets messy again. The good news is he has already handled this Cubs lineup before, throwing five scoreless innings against them in 2024. The bad news is this current Chicago lineup is locked in, patient, and punishing mistakes.
Chicago Cubs Betting Form
The Cubs are playing with the kind of confidence that makes bettors nervous to step in front of them. Three straight walk-offs against the same division opponent can feel a little unsustainable, sure, but it also says something about their lineup depth and late-game pressure. They have not needed one perfect script. They have won with power, patience, and situational hitting.
Ian Happ has been getting on base constantly, Pete Crow-Armstrong keeps producing big swings, and Michael Busch has delivered in key spots. Chicago also leads the league in on-base percentage and ranks among the top teams in slugging. That combination is a problem for Lowder because the Cubs do not need to chase to create offense. They can wait for mistakes, extend innings, and then cash in with power.
Imanaga is the biggest reason the Cubs deserve to be favored. He enters with a 3-2 record, a 2.40 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 43-to-10 strikeout-to-walk profile. That is elite command and traffic control. Against a Reds lineup that can be dangerous but streaky, Imanaga’s ability to get ahead and avoid free passes should give Chicago a major early-game edge.
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Matchup Breakdown
The starting pitching edge belongs to Chicago. Lowder has talent, but his last start was ugly, and asking him to bounce back at Wrigley against a lineup this hot is a difficult spot. Imanaga has been far more reliable, and his command profile is exactly what you want when laying a big favorite price.
The bullpen edge also leans Cubs. Cincinnati’s late-inning group has been the story of this series for all the wrong reasons, and Pagán’s injury only makes the situation worse. Chicago has not been perfect in relief, but the Cubs are getting the key outs when they need them. That matters when both teams have been playing tight games.
The Reds’ best path is power. They need Lowder to keep the game manageable and then hope the lineup gets to Imanaga with a few extra-base hits. Spencer Steer has had some success against Imanaga, and Cincinnati’s home-run profile gives them a puncher’s chance. But relying on power alone against a pitcher who does not beat himself is not my favorite road underdog angle.
From a market standpoint, this is where an MLB betting guide type of approach helps. The Cubs moneyline is expensive, but the run line at plus money is more interesting because Cincinnati’s bullpen issues create late separation potential. If Chicago leads after six, the Reds may not have enough relief stability to keep it close.
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Predictions and Best Bets
I lean Cubs on the run line. The moneyline is the safer side, obviously, but -197 is a heavy price for a divisional matchup, even with the Cubs playing this well. At +104 on -1.5, there is better value tied to Chicago’s starter edge, lineup form, and Cincinnati’s bullpen problems.
The Reds can absolutely hit enough to make this stressful. They have power throughout the lineup, and Wrigley can turn quickly if the wind helps the ball at all. But Imanaga’s command makes it harder for Cincinnati to build the kind of traffic needed to support those home runs. Solo shots are survivable. Walks before homers are not, and Imanaga has done a strong job avoiding that.
On the total, I lean Under 8.5, but it is not as strong as the side. The Cubs can get to Lowder, and the Reds bullpen could push this over late. Still, Imanaga should limit Cincinnati’s early scoring, and the Cubs do not need a huge offensive game to cover the run line if they control the first six innings. A 5-3 or 6-2 type of game feels realistic.
When comparing this matchup to other daily MLB picks, the Cubs run line is the cleanest way to attack the price. Chicago is in much better form, has the starting pitcher edge, and keeps finding ways to finish games at home.
Best Bet: Cubs -1.5 (+104).
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MLB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
MLB betting is not just about finding the better team. This game shows why. The Cubs are the obvious side, but the moneyline price is heavy, the run line offers better value, and the total depends heavily on whether Cincinnati’s bullpen breaks again.
ScoresAndStats helps bettors compare expert records, profit, and betting styles through the handicapper leaderboard. That transparency matters over a long MLB season, especially when teams go through extreme short-term swings like the Reds and Cubs are showing right now.
For bettors who want help sorting through a full Thursday card, premium MLB picks can make it easier to compare sides, totals, run lines, first five innings, and props before lines move. In Reds vs Cubs, the run line is where the favorite price becomes more playable.
